This year’s three-game Thanksgiving slate kicks off at 12:30 p.m. ET with Bears at the Lions. While the games may not be the most exciting this year, the prize pool’s still are. Let’s dig in and find out who the best plays are.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) is the clear best play this week across both sites. He leads our models in Median and Ceiling Projections, as well as Pts/Sal. However, there’s reason to be concerned about Allen. He (and the Bills offense) have struggled lately, with Allen being held under 25 points in three consecutive games. Buffalo is also implied for a moderate 25.5-point Vegas Total, their lowest on the season.
Still, there are many questions elsewhere at the position, so Allen stands out. The Saints are a significant pass funnel; their defense is the league’s best against the run but a middling 14th in DVOA against the pass. The Bills are generally very adaptable in how they attack opponents, operating by matchup instead of just the scoreboard. That could mean expanded volume for Allen.
Allen also contributes on the ground occasionally. With lower than normal expected quarterback scoring on the slate, an Allen rushing touchdown would be a major differentiator. He has three on the year, to go with 17 red-zone rushing attempts. The Saints have the slate’s worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks on both sites, so don’t downgrade Allen due to matchup.
Dak Prescott ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) is the best option outside of Allen. The Raiders present the second-best matchup (by Opponent Plus/Minus allowed), and the Cowboys have the highest team total of the slate.
Still, there’s question marks around Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing attack. Without both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb (which seems likely to be the case on Thursday), they fell flat against the Chiefs. It took Dak 43 attempts to throw for only 216 yards, a 5.0 yards per attempt (YPA) well below his 7.8 season average. He didn’t find the end zone and threw two picks along the way.
That was against the league’s 31st-ranked passing defense heading into the week. Vegas isn’t much better at 23rd, but it’s still a tougher matchup on paper. We also shouldn’t expect Dak to throw nearly as much. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites, and he attempts only 31.5 passes in Cowboys wins this season. Still, he’s a “bet on talent” option in this one and is in a great spot to lead the position in scoring if Allen continues to disappoint.
Derek Carr ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) is the preferred budget option this week, with the remaining teams all featuring backup quarterbacks. Carr is tied with Allen on DraftKings for the lead in Pts/Sal and makes sense if you’re paying up at other positions.
Carr has interesting splits this year. In each of the Raiders’ wins, he’s scored over 20 DraftKings points. In the Raiders’ losses, he has a high score of 19.24. Building lineups around a Raiders upset with Carr at quarterback could work for tournaments.
Andy Dalton ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) is the starter for Chicago this week. While he’s been underwhelming, he did manage to score over 16 points in the second half of Week 11’s game against Baltimore. The Bears would like to keep the ball on the ground, but Dalton may be in for a big game if they’re forced into throwing the ball.
Trevor Siemian ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) has four total touchdowns last week against Philadelphia and has performed admirably given the depleted Saints roster offensively. However, given the matchup with the Bills, our models prefer Dalton — who projects for more points at a similar price range.
Lions quarterbacks: We aren’t sure whether it will be Jared Goff or Timothy Boyle under center for the Lions in the first game. While it’s convenient, they play first. Ideally, you won’t have either Lion signal-caller in your lineup. Boyle was terrible in his NFL debut (77 passing yards on 23 attempts, two interceptions), and Goff isn’t enough cheaper (at $5,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) than the NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing on the slate to be in consideration.
Running Back
Studs
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) leads all backs in Median and Ceiling Projections on the slate. The volume has been solid for Zeke, but backup Tony Pollard is taking some of the work and the Cowboys are throwing more than they have in the past. Zeke has been involved enough in the passing game to stay relevant in negative game scripts, but that’s not the likeliest scenario with the Cowboys as 7.5-point favorites.
However, efficiency has been an issue for Elliott, particularly as of late. He’s been dealing with some kind of knee issue for the past two games and looks to be a step (or three) slower. He’s run for less than 3.2 yards per carry in that span, despite matchups with two bottom-10 rush defenses. Not a great sign with No. 15 Vegas coming to town.
While Zeke can still put up a good score thanks to his goal-line work, his likeliest output is a disappointing performance unless he can somehow get back to full strength on a short week. While we’re venturing into “assumption of rational coaching” territory, it’s also hard to see a game script that favors Elliott. One would assume he’d be rested with the Cowboys up big, while pass rates would be higher with Dallas trailing or a close game.
D’Andre Swift ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Swift narrowly (.01 points) trails Elliott in our projections on this one. Swift has been just that, scampering for multiple big plays over the past few weeks. He’s clearly benefited from head coach Dan Campbell taking over play-calling as Swift has 130 rushing yards in both games with Campbell wearing the headset (high of 51 yards in the eight previous games).
He’s also heavily involved in the passing game, leading all running backs in targets on the season. Neither Lions quarterback seems to have much interest in throwing the ball forward, which means plenty of check-downs and screens to Swift.
Swift will likely be incredibly popular this week (check out Ownership Projections closer to lock), but for good reason. On a fairly thin slate overall, he has more upside than just about anybody.
Midrange
David Montgomery ($6,000 DraftKings, $$7,500 FanDuel) leads all backs in Pts/Sal on DraftKings for the Thanksgiving slate. He’s been the victim of poor game scripts as of late, with 27 carries in two games since coming back from injury. However, it’s still his backfield. No other running back had multiple carries last week.
This game sets up better for both volume and efficiency for Montgomery. Dalton at quarterback leaves more rushes for the backs, the Bears are favored, and the Lions rank 28th in rushing defense. His limited pass game role and the Bears 22.5 team total suggest limited upside, though. He’s an obvious play in cash games on DraftKings, but tournaments are a bit more of a question.
Mark Ingram ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) should have the backfield to himself again on Thanksgiving, with Alvin Kamara likely to miss another game. Ingram has 221 total yards, 15 catches, and a score in his two games as the Saints leading running back. However, the matchup with the tough Bills defense is more challenging this week. He should be fine — if unspectacular — thanks to his receiving floor.
Josh Jacobs ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) has only 16 carries the past two games combined, with the Raiders losing badly in both contests. He does, however, have 12 targets in that span. Jacobs’ passing role is much improved this year, which helps his case this week. Still, the Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs in this one and implied for only 21.8 points here. That’s not great for a player who hasn’t scored more than 13.5 points in any game where he didn’t have a touchdown.
Tony Pollard ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) doesn’t project especially well but has some paths to a big game here. If Elliott is really less than full strength, the Cowboys might be forced to use Pollard as the featured back. They also could (and should) rest Zeke if this game gets out of hand. Either scenario could pay off for Pollard, who’s been the far more dynamic of the Cowboys backfield as of late.
Value Plays
Devin Singletary ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) and Zack Moss ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) are now sharing their workload with Matt Brieda ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), making none of the Bills backs attractive plays here. Moss at least has the red-zone role, with 23 carries inside the 20-yard line compared to 11 for Singeltary and two for Breida. He’d need a multi-touchdown game to be remotely useful on Thanksgiving.
Jamaal Williams ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) is priced at the DraftKings minimum, and at least early in the year, has shown some ceiling. He had a 25 point game in Week 1 and 14.7 in Week 3, but that was a long time ago. Williams has clearly been playing at less than full strength since then. He can be safely avoided on Thanksgiving.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Stefon Diggs ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) is the only receiver priced over $6,000 on DraftKings or $6,500 on FanDuel. It’s not especially hard to find the salary for Diggs this week, but whether it’s worth it or not is the question. Diggs has disappointed in three of his last four games, with the lone exception being against the league-worst Jets defense.
This week is a bit harder, with the Saints having a -0.4 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers. On the other hand, every team playing on Thursday has a negative score to the position, with the Saints being the softest at only -0.4 points below expectation.
It will be hard to avoid rostering Diggs here unless CeeDee Lamb (concussion protocols) gets cleared at the last second. He’s the only high-end receiver active on the slate and easily leads the position in Median Projection on both sites.
Midrange
Michael Gallup ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) is effectively the Cowboys’ top receiver with both Lamb and Amari Cooper (ruled out) expected to miss. Without Cooper and Lamb (at least for the second half), he saw 10 targets last week. A few of those were narrowly missed deep passes from Prescott.
Gallup’s output likely depends on how this game goes. The Cowboys would surely prefer to keep the ball on the ground if the scoreboard allows. If Vegas gets ahead or keeps it close, Gallup has double-digit targets firmly within his range of outcomes.
Hunter Renfrow ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) trails only Diggs and Gallup in our projections, which speaks to how bad of a slate this week is. Renfrow is consistent, if nothing else, getting at least 10.8 DraftKings points in eight of 10 games. Renfrow has 18 targets over the three games post-Ruggs, tied for the lead on the team. With an average depth of target of only 3.17, they aren’t the most valuable targets. However, his high on the season is 18.7 points. A lot would have to break his way for Renfrow to find a ceiling score.
Darnell Mooney ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) has had some big games this year, including a 26-point DraftKings performance last week. Dalton locked in on Mooney, with 16 of the Bears’ 34 targets (Fields attempted 11 passes) directed at the wide receiver. Mooney could play a major role in this one if the Lions get ahead.
Allen Robinson ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 1, with a high of seven in that span. He’s struggled regardless of who’s under center for Chicago, with a high of 10.8 DraftKings points on the season. Robinson is truly questionable, with his absence being more impactful for Mooney than his presence would be in lineups. At least he plays in the first game on Thursday, so we’ll have news before lock.
Value Plays
Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) averages just under six targets per game for the Bills this season. While you probably won’t need the savings Sanders gives you, he at least has flashed more of a ceiling than players like Renfrow or Robinson.
Cedrick Wilson ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) is the Cowboys’ No. 2 option with Lamb and Cooper out. He saw seven targets last week in a similar setup. His four-catch, 36-yard performance wasn’t incredibly encouraging, though. Regardless, his price is way too cheap for the No. 2 option on the team with the highest implied total on the slate.
Lions wide receivers: All of the Lions’ receivers come in under $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,500 FanDuel this week. Which is about $4,600/$5,500 too expensive with Dan Campbell calling plays. They combined for 26 yards between them last week with Boyle under center. The situation is slightly better if Goff is able to go, but he threw for 114 yards, including overtime, in his only game since Campbell took over play-calling duties.
Tight End
Studs
Darren Waller ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) is a cut above the rest of the slate. He easily leads the position in all projection categories, including Pts/Sal. He’s clearly the Raiders’ most talented receiver and takes on a Cowboys team that ranks 25th in points allowed to tight ends. If Vegas has to attack downfield — which seems likely — it should mostly go through Waller.
Given the lack of expensive options at other positions, expect Waller to be very popular on Thursday, which might make him worth the fade since he’s been relatively inconsistent for a player at his price point. Three of the other tight ends playing on Thanksgiving (Hockenson, Shultz, and Knox) are in the top-11 in PPR scoring on the season.
Midrange
TJ Hockenson ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) was the only Lions pass-catcher to escape the Tim Boyle experience with a respectable score, catching six passes for 51 (of Boyle’s 77) yards against Cleveland. It’s hard to see a path to a big game with Boyle under center, but Hockenson has some big games with Goff at the helm. He scored at least 18.9 DraftKings points three times this season.
Dalton Schultz ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) has 22 targets in four games with Blake Jarwin this season. With Cooper and probably Lamb out, expect him to be on the higher end of his range though. He was targeted eight times last week with that setup, catching six for 53 yards. The Raiders have a +5.1 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed (DraftKings) to tight ends, the highest on the slate.
Dawson Knox ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) isn’t much of a discount on FanDuel but is considerably cheaper than Schultz and Jarwin on DraftKings. He had a season-high ten targets last week and is the TE11 in PPR scoring, despite missing two games.
Value
Cole Kmet ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) has failed to find the endzone this year, limiting his overall scoring. He averages almost three catches (and almost 30 yards) a game, which would make for a solid score if one of them found paydirt. We probably don’t need to go this cheap at tight end, but he’s not a terrible play on DraftKings.
Lineup Construction
For cash games, this one seems fairly straightforward. Montgomery and Swift clearly stand out in Pts/Sal, so they’ll likely be your running backs, as do Cedrick Wilson, Michael Gallup, and Hunter Renfrow at wide receiver. Quarterback is a tougher decision, with Carr, Allen, and Prescott all having similar salary-based projections.
Carr gives you more flexibility to pay up at tight end (or fit either Diggs or Elliott in the flex), with things getting a little tighter if rostering Prescott or Allen. Then, round things out with a defense (Chicago seems like a must-play in cash if Tim Boyle is the Lions quarterback), and we’re off. Easy game.
However, tournaments are a different story. This slate needs to be approached sort of like a showdown slate. With every player we roster, we need to consider what would have to happen for that player to end up in the optimal lineup. For example, the Cowboys receivers all project well, but for (more than one of) them to have a big game, it would be highly likely that the Raiders are keeping pace or playing with the lead. Does that mean more touches for Josh Jacobs, or did the Raiders get out in front through Darren Waller?
Lineups built around one of the cheaper quarterbacks need to be considered similarly. What else is happening in a game that has led to Andy Dalton being the highest scoring quarterback? Probably a big game from D’Andre Swift or an unexpectedly solid output from the Lions’ passing attack.
Someone (or some game) will likely surprise us with a high score this week. When building lineups, think about what else has to happen for the players you roster to go off and proceed accordingly.
Good luck out there, and happy Thanksgiving!
