Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
General Theory
The two most important factors in building plus-EV Showdown lineups are correlations and uniqueness. Building correlations into our lineups are rather obvious. Given that we’re only building around one game, every event on the slate will impact every player. Each of our lineups should be built around a specific scenario (which you can read in my game breakdown) while trying to find the best way to profit if that scenario happens.
Some correlations are fairly straightforward. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are likely to have big games together, for example. Others are less so. This is an older article, but the Undervalued Correlations need to be considered here—namely, those across teams. Quarterbacks correlate with the opposing quarterback at a higher rate than any position other than their own top receiver.
The other factor, uniqueness, differs dramatically based on the type of contest you’re playing. When building for the 98,000 entry “Showdown Rush,” for example, finding unique lineups is very difficult. However, having a 1% chance at getting first place to yourself generate $2,000 in expected value. A 2% chance at a five-way chop is only “worth” $1,400. (Those percentages are way, way, higher than anybody’s actual expectation, but chosen for illustration purposes.)
That makes finding contrarian lineups more valuable than “better” lineups in terms of our profit over time in large contests. This is less the case in smaller contests but still important given the top-heavy nature of most tournament payouts.
Team Limits
One of the simplest — and most effective — tools in our optimizer is the ability to set limits on the number of players from each team. DraftKings requires at least one member of both teams, but we have flexibility within that. This can allow us to build around how we think the game will play out, with four members of the winning team being the best build (in terms of win rate) long term.
However, the best build in terms of expected value is four members of the underdog team. In this case, that’s San Francisco. However, given the general fantasy production of these two teams, balanced builds (three members of both teams) are certainly viable — even in a 49ers win. The Rams offense is more concentrated — Cam Akers handled 96% of the running back carries last week, and Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham account for roughly 50% of the targets since Week 10. The 49ers divide both carries and targets more evenly. They could score more total fantasy points as a team but not produce as many high individual scores as the Rams.
Therefore, the bulk of the lineups we build should have either three or four 49ers options. We can certainly save room for Rams heavy build, but those are less likely to be profitable in the long term. Additionally, it seems unlikely we find five 49ers in the optimal lineup. They’re a run-heavy team and would need a lot to break their way for their fifth-best option to outscore the Rams’ second best.
Allocating a certain chunk of your Showdown portfolio to this rule and the rest to four (or five) Rams is my preferred method of attack for this one.
Player Groups
Creating rules around player groups allows a ton of flexibility around our lineup builds. There are infinite possible combinations we can build. However, we’re going to focus on two in particular. Continuing with the theme of building around a 49ers upset (or at least a 49ers lead throughout much of the game), we can start thinking about which players benefit.
The run-heavy 49ers are likely to dial down the passing volume even further if they’re off to a big lead, so limiting the number of pass catchers is important. (More than two receivers from the same team is generally a bad rule anyway.) Let’s start by restricting lineups to at most two of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings. Given Deebo Samuel’s heavy involvement in the run game, he could hit along with two pass catchers.
With the Rams likely to lean more heavily on the pass in this scenario, we want to have exposure to their primary options. Matthew Stafford could find his way into the optimal, or targets could be concentrated on only a couple of players. Therefore, our rule is at least two of Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and Tyler Higbee.
We could expand this rule to include Van Jefferson or remove Higbee from the list. Since some of our lineups will have three Rams, this still leaves flexibility for another Ram.
Player Correlations
Last but certainly not least, is my favorite rule for this one. Samuel returned two (of a total of three) kickoffs last week against the Packers. The top two kick returners on San Francisco’s depth chart are currently injured. Also, San Francisco recognizes that Deebo is their most explosive player. Getting the ball in his hands is important.
Of course, the only way to score fantasy points on a kick return is with a touchdown. But who else gets points for a kick return? That’s right, San Francisco’s defense. This is obviously fairly unlikely to happen but massively profitable if it does. Both “players” are solid choices even without a return score, though. Samuel has the top ceiling projection on the 49ers, and their defense creating points is one scenario that leads to them being in control to begin with. (Remember, these rules are based around the 49ers playing with a lead.)
Samuel is the far better play than the defense, though. Therefore, we don’t want all of our Deebo lineups to also include the 49ers defense. However, is there anything wrong with all of our defense lineups, including Deebo? Didn’t think so. To take it a step further, we can also include Samuel as the captain in each of these lineups. Building all of your lineups this way isn’t advised, though. We’ll have the salary to get to Kupp by rostering the 49ers defense, and his odds of outscoring Samuel (even considering price) is fairly high if the Rams are chasing points.
Setting a rule for the inverse — defense Captain must include Deebo — is in play too. It’s sure to be a fairly unique build, with the salary flexibility to fit high-end players.
General Rules
Beyond the slate-specific rules discussed above, we can set some other rules to give us an edge. My favorite for Showdowns is the maximum salary cap setting. Simply lowering this from 100% gives us a huge edge in building unique lineups — leaving salary on the table is underutilized in Showdowns.
Beyond that, we can control the maximum exposure to any one player — customizable by position (including Captain). This also helps to diversify lineups, as it forces the optimizer away from the best Pts/Sal (or ceiling/sal) projected players. Setting the “bounce” also helps with this. The bounce cuts a player’s projections by a given percentage each time they appear in a lineup. They recover each time they aren’t, but this helps to diversify.
Additionally, we can control which players are allowed to appear in the Captain spot. Generally speaking, it’s OK to eliminate kickers and defenses from captain consideration. I’d leave defense as an option here, though. Stafford has a penchant for throwing touchdowns to his opponents, and the Rams pass rush (coupled with Garropolo’s relatively high turnover rate) gives them increased odds of being in the optimal.
While this was focused on the 49ers winning the game, we could tweak them based on how we think this game will play out. (Or give ourselves exposure to a variety of scenarios.) Besides shifting our exposure to four (or five) Rams, we’d want to focus more heavily on the Rams rushing attack and the 49ers passing attack.
Regardless, experiment with various rules and settings and see what you can come up with.
Good luck in the Showdown streets!
