The NFL Playoffs roll on with the Conference Championships, and there’s a two-game DFS slate starting at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
What else is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes at this point? This is his fourth season as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, and it’s his fourth trip to the AFC Championship. He was able to engineer a game-tying drive with just 13 seconds left vs. the Bills before securing a walk-off touchdown in overtime.
Mahomes has been fantastic from a fantasy perspective during the postseason. He’s racked up at least 41.06 DraftKings points in both games, and he’s done damage with his arm and his legs.
Mahomes is in another excellent spot this week vs. the Bengals. Their defense has been mediocre against the pass, ranking just 24th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are also 7.5-point home favorites, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 31.0 points. No other team is implied for more than 24.5, so that’s a massive difference.
Mahomes figures to be the heavy chalk at quarterback this week, but it’s hard not to like him. He leads the position with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he also owns the best Bargain Rating at the position.
Value
Joe Burrow will likely be the default option for those not paying up for Mahomes. He ended the regular season on a strong note, finishing with at least 34.84 FanDuel points in his final two games. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carry that success into the postseason. He’s finished with 17.36 FanDuel points or fewer in both playoff games, and he was sacked nine times vs. the Titans.
Luckily, the Chiefs represent a much friendlier matchup for Burrow and his offensive line. The Chiefs rank just 26th in adjusted sack rate, so Burrow should have a bit more time in the pocket. If that happens, Burrow has the potential to shred the Chiefs’ secondary. He torched the Chiefs for 446 yards and four touchdowns during their regular season meeting.
Burrow leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 on FanDuel, and his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Quick Hits
Matthew Stafford figures to be the third-highest owned player at the position this week, and he grades out favorable in our NFL Models when compared to Burrow. His matchup vs. the 49ers is significantly tougher than Burrow’s, but Stafford does benefit from being a home favorite. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.53 as a home favorite (per the Trends tool).
Jimmy Garoppolo is the final QB on this slate, and he should garner virtually no ownership. That makes him slightly interesting from a game theory perspective, but he has been abysmal during the postseason. He’s recorded 5.98 DraftKings points or fewer in his past two games, and he owns the worst projections at the position by a sizable margin. Fading him entirely is definitely reasonable.
Running Back
Stud
This slate is a bit light on stud running backs. Joe Mixon is the only player who can really be considered a stud, and he’s just $6,800 on DraftKings.
Mixon has operated like a modern-day feature back recently. He’s not seeing an overwhelming number of carries – he’s logged an average of just 15.25 over the past four weeks – but he makes up for it with his work in the passing game. He’s averaged nearly seven targets per game over that span, and he’s racked up at least five targets in each contest. Mixon is also heavily involved near the goal line, racking up 13 rushing touchdowns during the regular season.
That makes him a pretty safe option vs. the Chiefs. If the team falls behind, Mixon should stay involved catching passes out of the backfield. If the Bengals keep this game competitive, he should see plenty of carries against a weak Chiefs’ run defense.
Overall, Mixon leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
It didn’t take Cam Akers long to take over in the Rams’ backfield. He racked up 24 carries last week vs. the Buccaneers, while Sony Michel finished with just one. The fact that the team stayed with Akers despite losing a fumble at the end of the first half also shows that the coaching staff has confidence in him.
Akers is simply too cheap at $5,000 on DraftKings this week. That makes him just the fifth-most expensive running back, but he owns the second-highest median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models.
That isn’t to say that Akers isn’t without faults. For starters, he’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate regardless of position. He’s projected for more than 60% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, and there’s always merit to fading a player who is expected to be that chalky. Akers also had a second massive fumble down the stretch last week, so it’s possible that Michel is a bit more involved vs. the 49ers.
Finally, the 49ers have an excellent defense, giving Akers the worst Opponent Plus/Minus at the position.
Quick Hits
Elijah Mitchell was quiet last week, finishing with just 17 carries for 53 yards. He did catch three passes out of the backfield, but he still posted a negative Plus/Minus. Still, Mitchell has been a workhorse for the 49ers all season, and he logged at least 21 carries in each of his previous six games. Expect him to be busy vs. the Rams, making him a nice buy-low option.
It will be interesting to see what the Chiefs do at running back this week. Jerick McKinnon played on the majority of the snaps last week, and he finished with at least 12.8 DraftKings points for the second straight week. However, Clyde Edwards-Helaire did return to the lineup vs. the Bills, and he was extremely impressive running the ball. It’s possible that the snaps could be split a bit more evenly this week, making CEH an excellent tournament option. He’s projected for minimal ownership, but he has some upside for a two-game slate.
Wide Receiver
Stud
While running back is a bit thin at the top this week, wide receiver is absolutely loaded. However, any analysis of the position has to start with Cooper Kupp.
Kupp just turned in a historic season at receiver, leading the position in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He’s also coming off a monster performance last week, finishing with nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown. He ultimately finished with 35.3 DraftKings points, and no one at the position can match his combination of upside and consistency. Kupp finished with at least 20.5 DraftKings points in all but four games this season, and he went for at least 30.6 DraftKings points in seven games.
Kupp fared well in his two matchups vs. the 49ers during the regular season, recording 29.6 and 26.2 DraftKings points. He’s the most expensive player at the position by a sizable margin, but he’s worth it if you can fit him.
Value
You’re going to need some savings with at least one of your receivers, and the Bengals have two nice options in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Both players have been overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase, but both players rank in the top five on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus.
Higgins is a bit more expensive than Boyd, but he was excellent last week vs. the Titans. He finished with nine targets, which he turned into seven catches for 96 yards. He’s scored at least that much in five of his past eight games, so he’s very reasonable at $5,700. Higgins has been priced as high as $6,900 during the regular season.
Boyd is the more traditional value option at $4,200 on DraftKings, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 89%. He hasn’t been nearly as involved as Higgins of late, but he does have at least five targets in six of his past seven games. He’s coming off a dud last week – he finished with just 3.7 DraftKings points – but he had scored at least 10.3 in each of his previous six games.
Quick Hits
Speaking of Chase, he should be an extremely popular option this week. He’s had an incredible rookie season, and he’s finished with at least 109 yards in his first two playoff games. His best game of the season came against the Chiefs, who he torched for 11 catches, 266 yards, and three touchdowns. I would hope that the Chiefs are a bit more prepared for Chase this time around, but there’s only so much you can do against such a dynamic talent.
Tyreek Hill is expected to be the most popular option at the position at just $7,000 on DraftKings. He entered last week’s contest with back-to-back poor performances, but he broke out with 34.8 DraftKings points vs. the Bills. He remains one of the most heavily targeted players in the league, and he’s capable of turning any touch into a big play.
If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Chiefs, Byron Pringle has emerged as their clear No. 2 option at the position. He’s racked up at least seven targets in four of his past five games, and he’s scored five touchdowns over that time frame.
Deebo Samuel hobbled off the field at the end of last week’s game, but he is not listed on the team’s injury report. That means he should be a full go, and he should be very busy as a runner and receiver vs. the Rams. He’s crushed in his two regular season games vs. the Rams, finishing with 28.96 and 30.3 DraftKings points.
Neither of the other 49ers’ receivers should be very popular, but that makes them interesting in tournaments. Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a zero-catch outing last week, but he did score at least 11.6 DraftKings points in each of his previous three games. Jauan Jennings is dirt cheap at $3,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he racked up 27.4 DraftKings points in his last matchup vs. the Rams.
Finally, Odell Beckham Jr. has made the most of his opportunity with the Rams. He’s scored a touchdown in three of his past five games, and he racked up eight targets last week vs. the Buccaneers.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce stands out as the clear top stud at tight end this week. He finished with eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown vs. the Bills, and that production has become the norm for Kelce during the postseason. In fact, his 96 yards was his lowest output in the postseason over the past two years.
He leads the position in median and ceiling projection, and he’s particularly underpriced on FanDuel. His $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
The only reason Kelce isn’t an absolute slam dunk on FanDuel is that George Kittle is egregiously underpriced. His production has waned recently thanks to Garoppolo’s poor play, but he’s only $200 more expensive than C.J. Uzomah and $300 more expensive than Tyler Higbee. Kittle is undoubtedly one of the most talented players at the position, so he’s clearly worth consideration at that price tag. Kittle has only owned a comparable price tag in nine previous contests, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.31.
Quick Hits
Using Uzomah at the position is much more viable on DraftKings. He’s -$1,600 cheaper than Kittle, and his $3,400 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He also leads the position in projected Plus/Minus. Ultimately, he’s a great way to save some salary, and pairing him with another tight end is definitely a viable strategy.
Higbee isn’t quite as cheap as Uzomah, but he’s still underpriced at $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s been a reliable source of production recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.
