Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is currently questionable with an abdominal injury, but he’s a strong option on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up. He started the year in a major shooting funk, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s coming off a season-high 46.8 FanDuel points in his last outing. Lillard routinely plays one of the largest minute counts in the league, and he remains underpriced at just $8,200. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.28 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
Jalen Brunson has been priced up across the industry, but he still stands out as one of the best values of the day. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season. That alone would be enough to justify him at his current salary.
That said, Brunson also figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Luka Doncic injury. He’s been ruled out with left knee and ankle injuries, and Brunson has increased his usage rate by +6.8% with Doncic off the court this season. He’s averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he can do some serious damage vs. the Suns on Wednesday.
Fast Break
The Timberwolves have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Kings. They rank eighth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, giving the Timberwolves the second-highest implied team total of the day. That makes D’Angelo Russell an interesting option. Russell is coming off 35.0 DraftKings points in his last outing despite shooting just 1-10 from 3-point range, so he has some buy-low appeal.
Sticking with the Timberwolves, Patrick Beverley is another potential source of value at the position. He’s projected for 30 minutes vs. the Kings, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him underpriced across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Bulls are another team with an appealing matchup on Wednesday. They’re taking on the Blazers, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.
DeMar DeRozan stands out as one of their top options. He’s been fantastic in his first year with the Bulls, averaging 26.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. His 30.2% usage rate is his highest-mark since 2016-17 with the Raptors, and he’s shooting a stout 51.0% from the field and 37.1% from 3-point range. Overall, his average of 41.5 FanDuel points per game is the top mark of his entire career.
With that in mind, his $8,500 salary on FanDuel is still too cheap. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.99 over his past 10 games, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
There is no shortage of value options to choose from on Wednesday’s slate. Brunson is probably the best of the bunch, but Talen Horton-Tucker isn’t far behind. He was fantastic in his last game, scoring 42.0 DraftKings points over 37.2 minutes vs. the Bulls, and his role should be safe with LeBron James still sidelined. Tucker is currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. I wouldn’t expect another 35 DraftKings points on Wednesday, but he should be able to cruise past 25. That would be more than enough at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Patty Mills has become a sizable part of the Nets’ rotation. He’s logged at least 31.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and Mills has historically been awesome when given the chance to play. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.38 on DraftKings in games where he’s played at least 28 minutes, and he’s dirt-cheap at just $3,500 vs. the Cavaliers.
Josh Giddey stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and the talented rookie has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Rockets, who have played at the fastest pace in the league.
Small Forward
Stud
The top of the small forward position has been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but there are some appealing options on FanDuel. Jayson Tatum is arguably the best pure value. He’s priced at $9,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he should continue to carry an increased workload with Jaylen Brown out of the lineup. Tatum has increased his usage rate to 33.3% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.13 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also shot just 39.8% from the field with Brown off the court, so he has some room for improvement moving forward.
Value
The Cavaliers could be a massive source of value on Wednesday. They’re playing without four of their five starters from the beginning of the year – Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen – which opens up tons of minutes and shot attempts for the rest of the roster.
The team will be particularly thin in the frontcourt, which means Cedi Osman and Dean Wade should both be busy. Osman is a bit more expensive on DraftKings, but he’s also been far better from a fantasy perspective to start the year. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute, while Wade has averaged just 0.53. I’d give Osman the edge if only playing one, but playing both is definitely viable.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. should be asked to take on a larger role as a scorer with Doncic sidelined. He’s thrived in that situation so far this season, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the court, so he has excellent upside at his current salary across the industry.
Josh Hart also continues to deserve consideration for the Pelicans. He’s playing tons of minutes at the moment, and his rebounding ability for a wing player gives him plenty of fantasy viability. He’s coming off 38.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Power Forward
Stud
With the abundance of value options, it’s easy to pay up for a stud or two or Wednesday’s slate. Giannis Antetokounmpo is extremely expensive at $12,500 on DraftKings, but no one on the slate can match his upside. He’s coming off two-straight subpar performances, but Giannis has still averaged 1.68 DraftKings points per minute this season. No one else on the slate is above even 1.43.
Giannis also takes the court in an excellent matchup vs. the Lakers. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 115.25 ranks first on the slate. Giannis can do a ton of damage in this spot.
He’s a no-brainer option at just $11,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
Chimezie Metu is yet another elite value option on Wednesday’s slate. He’s coming off a season-high 31.7 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 36.5 DraftKings points. Metu has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he has historically been an excellent investment when expected to play big minutes. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and Metu has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.46 in five games with a comparable minute projection.
Fast Break
If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Giannis, going with Kristaps Porzingis is a nice alternative. His $7,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should be the Mavericks’ offensive focal point sans Doncic. He’s posted a usage rate of 30.7% with Doncic off the court this season, and he’s averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
Christian Wood has PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, and using him at power forward is always appealing. It’s particularly appealing on Wednesday given his matchup vs. the Thunder. They have been dreadful against opposing big men this season, giving Wood an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.39.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has had a bit of a disappointing season, but he’s coming off 56.75 DraftKings points in his last game. He’ll have the opportunity to build off that success vs. the Kings. Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.89, and the Kings have struggled on the glass in addition to the defensive end. They rank just 24th in team rebound rate, so Towns should have his way with them on the interior.
Value
The Bulls are still playing without Nikola Vucevic, so Tony Bradley should continue to play a few additional minutes. He’s coming off 27.2 minutes in his last game, and Bradley has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season. That should be enough to pay off his current $3,300 salary, especially in a solid matchup vs. the Blazers.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton returned to the Suns’ lineup in their last game, and he finished with 39.0 DraftKings points over 32.9 minutes. He stands out as an elite value at the position at just $6,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Bobby Portis should continue to start in place of Brook Lopez, and he has plenty of value in that role. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his matchup vs. the Lakers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.14. Portis is also underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
