Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is back for the Blazers, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. That’s not a huge surprise with C.J. McCollum out of the lineup. Lillard has increased his usage rate to 32.8% with McCollum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 FanDuel points per minute. However, Lillard hasn’t been at his best to start the year. If we look back to the start of last season, Lillard averages 1.31 FanDuel points per minute with McCollum off the court.
Lillard stands out as an elite value at just $8,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
Luka Doncic remains out of the lineup for the Mavericks, so Jalen Brunson should continue to provide value at point guard. He’s coming off just 29.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, but he was limited to 25.3 minutes in a blowout win. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the court this season.
Fast Break
The Cavaliers have arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Rockets. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and they rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency. That makes Ricky Rubio an appealing option. He hasn’t played as much as expected following the injury to Collin Sexton, but he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season. His $5,000 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Tyus Jones should continue to garner attention with Ja Morant out of the lineup. He wasn’t really needed in the Grizzlies’ last game – a 35-point victory over the 76ers – but he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should return to his usual workload on Wednesday, and he’s underpriced across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Bucks have the potential to be without their two best players on Wednesday. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been ruled out due to health and safety protocols, while Khris Middleton is questionable with a knee injury. That makes Jrue Holiday one of the top plays on the slate. He’s increased his usage rate to 34.7% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Sticking with the Bucks, Grayson Allen should also be asked to take on a larger role. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which is plenty for someone who costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.70.
Fast Break
Tre Mann could be another source of value at shooting guard. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he should see a bump in playing time with Lu Dort out of the lineup. Mann has averaged a respectable 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can pay off his price tag with a few additional minutes.
Caris LeVert continues to stand out as underpriced at just $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s logged at least 36.6 minutes in two straight games. LeVert has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 48.7 FanDuel points two games ago.
Small Forward
Stud
If Middleton is able to suit up, he deserves some stud consideration on Wednesday’s slate. He leads the team with a 34.9% usage rate with Antetokounmpo off the court this season, so he carries significantly more upside than usual. Middleton has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which represents a sizable increase from his average of 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at just $7,200 on DraftKings.
Value
Harrison Barnes is still easing his way back into action for the Kings, but he’s eventually going to return to his usual workload. When that happens, Barnes is going to provide massive value at his current salary. He’s down to just $5,600 on DraftKings, but he’s been priced as high as $7,600 at times this year. Barnes has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute, he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to provide value at $5,600.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen is another potential target for the Cavaliers. Their implied team total of 113.25 ranks fifth on the slate, and it represents a sizable increase from their regular season average (106.0). Markkanen is coming off 31.5 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at his current salary across the industry.
Josh Hart has been a consistent source of fantasy value for the Pelicans all season. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.92 over that time frame. Hart is capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways, which gives him a solid floor and ceiling on a nightly basis.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis is another member of the Mavericks who should continue to thrive without Doncic. He was fantastic in his last contest, racking up 53.25 DraftKings points over just 25.3 minutes. He increased his usage rate to 38.1% in that contest, and he’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the court. His matchup vs. the Lakers also gives him one of the better individual matchups at the position, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.17.
Value
Alperen Sengun has been extremely productive on a per-minute basis this season. He’s increased his production to 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s starting to see additional playing time for the Rockets. He’s played at least 22.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 30 DraftKings points in both contests.
Christian Wood is also questionable for the Rockets, and his absence would make Sengun a borderline must-play. He would likely enter the starting lineup in that situation, and he would see all the minutes he can handle.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. has started the past two games for the Blazers, and he’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in both contests. He hasn’t seen a huge spike in playing time, but he’s increased his per-minute productivity when playing with the starters. That makes sense. Nance is not the type of player who relies on scoring for fantasy points, so he can focus on other things when playing with better scorers.
Feel free to continue firing up Marvin Bagley as long as Richaun Holmes is out of the lineup. Bagley has played at least 26.3 minutes in two of his past three contests, and he’s scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in each. Bagley has increased his production to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of doing damage in limited minutes.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been one of the best fantasy producers in the league for a while now, but he has taken things to another level recently. He’s increased his usage rate to 34.1% during seven December contests, and he’s averaged 27.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 9.3 assists in those games. That has unsurprisingly resulted in some ridiculous fantasy numbers, including at least 72.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games.
He’ll take the floor in an excellent spot Wednesday vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace this season, so the Nuggets have more scoring upside than usual. Their implied team total of 114.0 points ranks third on today’s slate.
Jokic has gotten more expensive over that time frame, but he’s still too cheap across the industry. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%. Overall, Jokic is the clear top stud on Wednesday’s slate.
Value
Center doesn’t stand out as a great position to save money. There aren’t a ton of appealing values, but Montrezl Harrell could be an exception. He’s historically been an elite producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season. His playing time is volatile, but he racked up 27 minutes in his last outing. If he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s a steal at just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic was priced as high as $7,700 on FanDuel to start the season, but he’s down to just $5,900 on Wednesday’s slate. Nurkic is capable of paying off that salary in limited minutes, but he’s coming off a whopping 39 minutes in the Blazers’ last game. If he can combine that increased playing time with his usual per-minute efficiency, he’s going to smash this price tag.
Jonas Valanciunas is another excellent value on FanDuel. His $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns an elite matchup vs. the Thunder. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.8, so this is a prime buy-low opportunity.
