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NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, Jan. 4): Domantas Sabonis is Back

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

Point guard doesn’t stand out as a particularly appealing position at the top on Tuesday. However, Chris Paul is worth some consideration. He’s been a consistent source of fantasy value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. His price has actually decreased over that time frame, so he’s clearly capable of returning value at his current salary.

Paul also owns a strong matchup vs. the Pelicans. They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Suns’ implied team total of 115.5 ranks third on the slate.

Value

Point guard stands out as a great spot to save some salary. Tre Jones is coming off 32.1 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 27.75 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so it’s not surprising that he made the most of his additional playing time. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and point guards with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.07 (per the Trends tool). Overall, Jones stands out as one of the strongest values on the entire slate.

Fast Break

Tyus Jones is another potential value option at the position. His playing time has diminished with Ja Morant back in the lineup, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past three games. That includes his most recent contest despite playing just 18.8 minutes. He should see closer to 28 minutes if Tuesday’s game is more competitive, and his $4,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

Russell Westbrook is very affordable on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Kings. The Lakers’ implied team total of 118.25 is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin, and Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.51. He’s a strong buy-low candidate after his salary dropped by -$700 following his last outing.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Spurs will get Keita Bates-Diop back on Tuesday, but they’re still expected to be without Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV. That means Derrick White will once again be looking at an expanded role. He’s taken full advantage of that recently, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He logged more than 42 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 46.25 DraftKings points. White has scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, so he has plenty of upside at just $7,200 on DraftKings.

Value

Duane Washington Jr. is a shooting guard on FanDuel and a point guard on DraftKings, but he deserves consideration where you choose to play him. He started and played 34.4 minutes in the Pacers’ last game, and he’ll likely see another sizable workload with Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert sidelined. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.76 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced across the industry.

Fast Break

The Knicks’ guard rotation has been in flux all season, but Immanuel Quickley is coming off 27.8 minutes in his last game. If he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s a steal at just $4,400 on DraftKings. Quickley has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s averaged 27.57 DraftKings points in 22 career games with at least 25 minutes.

Devin Vassell stands out as underpriced at just $4,800 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a stout 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he racked up 37.8 FanDuel points over 41.1 minutes in his last outing. He likely won’t see quite as much playing time on Tuesday, but he’s still projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James is still one of the best players in the league, and the Lakers have tried to squeeze every possible ounce of basketball out of him recently. The team is playing without Anthony Davis, and the rest of the roster is extremely lackluster. That leaves James to do most of the heavy lifting. He’s scored at least 52.9 FanDuel points in six straight games, and he’s had at least 61.8 in five of them.

There’s no reason to expect anything different from the Lakers or King James on Tuesday. He’s gotten significantly more expensive across the industry, but he can pay off his current price tag in an elite spot vs. the Kings.

Value

The Cavaliers are extremely undermanned at the moment, so they’ve had to turn to some unusual sources. Lamar Stevens racked up 31.3 minutes in their last game, and he could be asked to play a similar workload on Tuesday. Darius Garland is considered a game-time decision for reconditioning, and if he’s out, Stevens would be an excellent value at just $3,300 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Josh Hart continues to produce at an elite level for the pelicans. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 35.7 minutes in back-to-back games. Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas both returned to the lineup in their last game, so there’s no reason to think Hart will lose much playing time on Tuesday.

OG Anunoby is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s stepped right back into a sizable workload for the Raptors following an extended absence, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Raptors are also expected to put up plenty of points vs. the Spurs, with their implied team total of 115.75 ranking second on the slate.

Power Forward

Stud

Domantas Sabonis is back, baby. The versatile big man struggled to start the season, but he’s put his full skillset on display recently. He’s racked up at least 50.1 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

He should continue to thrive for as long as Brogdon and LeVert are sidelined. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +12.5% in games without both players this season, giving him significantly more upside as a distributor. That’s obviously a great development for his fantasy prospects.

Value

Julius Randle is currently questionable for reconditioning, and his status will be important on Tuesday’s slate. If he’s ruled out, Obi Toppin becomes one of the best values of the day. Toppin racked up nearly 45.2 minutes in his last game sans Randle, and he’s averaged a stout 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season. That’s an appealing combination for someone who costs just $5,200.

Fast Break

Marvin Bagley’s playing time has been inconsistent this season. He started the year out of the rotation entirely, but he was thrust into action given the team’s injuries and COVID absences. He’s coming off just 20.1 minutes in his last outing, but there’s a chance he plays a bit more vs. the Lakers. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Bagley has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is an absolute rollercoaster. He has a tendency to get into foul trouble, which results in a wide range of outcomes from a minute’s perspective. However, he’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has an excellent ceiling when he can stay on the court.

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Center

Stud

Valanciunas wasted little time making an impact in his return for the Grizzlies. He racked up 36.8 FanDuel points over 30.1 minutes, and he’s one of the best big men in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has massive upside every time he takes the floor. Valanciunas leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

How the minutes are split between Bagley and Damian Jones will be a huge factor on today’s slate. Jones got the better end of the equation in their last outing, and he finished with 35.5 DraftKings points over 29.2 minutes. It’s possible that the minutes are split a bit more evenly on Tuesday, but Jones still stands out as an excellent value across the industry. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

Jalen Smith has started each of the past two games for the Suns, and he’s racked up at least 29.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He’s not playing massive minutes for the shorthanded Suns, who are without Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Frank Kaminsky, but he’s averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price continues to rise, but he still stands out as an excellent option.

Steven Adams owns arguably the best individual matchup at the position. He leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48, and his $5,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. Adams has also been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.97 over his past 10 games.

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

Point guard doesn’t stand out as a particularly appealing position at the top on Tuesday. However, Chris Paul is worth some consideration. He’s been a consistent source of fantasy value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. His price has actually decreased over that time frame, so he’s clearly capable of returning value at his current salary.

Paul also owns a strong matchup vs. the Pelicans. They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Suns’ implied team total of 115.5 ranks third on the slate.

Value

Point guard stands out as a great spot to save some salary. Tre Jones is coming off 32.1 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 27.75 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so it’s not surprising that he made the most of his additional playing time. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and point guards with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.07 (per the Trends tool). Overall, Jones stands out as one of the strongest values on the entire slate.

Fast Break

Tyus Jones is another potential value option at the position. His playing time has diminished with Ja Morant back in the lineup, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past three games. That includes his most recent contest despite playing just 18.8 minutes. He should see closer to 28 minutes if Tuesday’s game is more competitive, and his $4,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

Russell Westbrook is very affordable on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Kings. The Lakers’ implied team total of 118.25 is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin, and Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.51. He’s a strong buy-low candidate after his salary dropped by -$700 following his last outing.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Spurs will get Keita Bates-Diop back on Tuesday, but they’re still expected to be without Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV. That means Derrick White will once again be looking at an expanded role. He’s taken full advantage of that recently, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He logged more than 42 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 46.25 DraftKings points. White has scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, so he has plenty of upside at just $7,200 on DraftKings.

Value

Duane Washington Jr. is a shooting guard on FanDuel and a point guard on DraftKings, but he deserves consideration where you choose to play him. He started and played 34.4 minutes in the Pacers’ last game, and he’ll likely see another sizable workload with Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert sidelined. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.76 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced across the industry.

Fast Break

The Knicks’ guard rotation has been in flux all season, but Immanuel Quickley is coming off 27.8 minutes in his last game. If he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s a steal at just $4,400 on DraftKings. Quickley has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s averaged 27.57 DraftKings points in 22 career games with at least 25 minutes.

Devin Vassell stands out as underpriced at just $4,800 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a stout 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he racked up 37.8 FanDuel points over 41.1 minutes in his last outing. He likely won’t see quite as much playing time on Tuesday, but he’s still projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James is still one of the best players in the league, and the Lakers have tried to squeeze every possible ounce of basketball out of him recently. The team is playing without Anthony Davis, and the rest of the roster is extremely lackluster. That leaves James to do most of the heavy lifting. He’s scored at least 52.9 FanDuel points in six straight games, and he’s had at least 61.8 in five of them.

There’s no reason to expect anything different from the Lakers or King James on Tuesday. He’s gotten significantly more expensive across the industry, but he can pay off his current price tag in an elite spot vs. the Kings.

Value

The Cavaliers are extremely undermanned at the moment, so they’ve had to turn to some unusual sources. Lamar Stevens racked up 31.3 minutes in their last game, and he could be asked to play a similar workload on Tuesday. Darius Garland is considered a game-time decision for reconditioning, and if he’s out, Stevens would be an excellent value at just $3,300 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Josh Hart continues to produce at an elite level for the pelicans. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 35.7 minutes in back-to-back games. Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas both returned to the lineup in their last game, so there’s no reason to think Hart will lose much playing time on Tuesday.

OG Anunoby is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s stepped right back into a sizable workload for the Raptors following an extended absence, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Raptors are also expected to put up plenty of points vs. the Spurs, with their implied team total of 115.75 ranking second on the slate.

Power Forward

Stud

Domantas Sabonis is back, baby. The versatile big man struggled to start the season, but he’s put his full skillset on display recently. He’s racked up at least 50.1 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

He should continue to thrive for as long as Brogdon and LeVert are sidelined. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +12.5% in games without both players this season, giving him significantly more upside as a distributor. That’s obviously a great development for his fantasy prospects.

Value

Julius Randle is currently questionable for reconditioning, and his status will be important on Tuesday’s slate. If he’s ruled out, Obi Toppin becomes one of the best values of the day. Toppin racked up nearly 45.2 minutes in his last game sans Randle, and he’s averaged a stout 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season. That’s an appealing combination for someone who costs just $5,200.

Fast Break

Marvin Bagley’s playing time has been inconsistent this season. He started the year out of the rotation entirely, but he was thrust into action given the team’s injuries and COVID absences. He’s coming off just 20.1 minutes in his last outing, but there’s a chance he plays a bit more vs. the Lakers. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Bagley has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is an absolute rollercoaster. He has a tendency to get into foul trouble, which results in a wide range of outcomes from a minute’s perspective. However, he’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has an excellent ceiling when he can stay on the court.

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Center

Stud

Valanciunas wasted little time making an impact in his return for the Grizzlies. He racked up 36.8 FanDuel points over 30.1 minutes, and he’s one of the best big men in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has massive upside every time he takes the floor. Valanciunas leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

How the minutes are split between Bagley and Damian Jones will be a huge factor on today’s slate. Jones got the better end of the equation in their last outing, and he finished with 35.5 DraftKings points over 29.2 minutes. It’s possible that the minutes are split a bit more evenly on Tuesday, but Jones still stands out as an excellent value across the industry. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

Jalen Smith has started each of the past two games for the Suns, and he’s racked up at least 29.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He’s not playing massive minutes for the shorthanded Suns, who are without Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Frank Kaminsky, but he’s averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price continues to rise, but he still stands out as an excellent option.

Steven Adams owns arguably the best individual matchup at the position. He leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48, and his $5,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. Adams has also been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.97 over his past 10 games.