Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
There are some big names point guards to choose from on Thursday, but Dejounte Murray stands out as arguably the best value. He’s been fantastic this season, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s logged at least 38.2 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 9.5 assists in those contests, and he’s scored at least 60.5 DraftKings points in both games.
The game between the Spurs and the Timberwolves also stands out as one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. The total currently sits at 219 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Patrick Beverley stands out as an elite value at $4,200 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 75%, and his matchup vs. the Spurs gives him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45. That’s the top mark at the position. Beverley is also projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. Overall, he’s one of the strongest value plays on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Mike Conley’s price tag has dipped to just $5,700 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that salary. It results in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and Conley has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.89 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). The Jazz’s implied team total of 112.25 is also the top mark on the slate.
Ricky Rubio has gotten a bit more expensive across the industry of late, but he’s still underpriced at $6,800 on FanDuel. He’s scored at least 32.3 FanDuel points in six straight games, and he should continue to carry a massive workload for the shorthanded Cavaliers. Collin Sexton and Evan Mobley are both out with long-term injuries, while Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen also missed their last game.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George has served as the Clippers’ top option with Kawhi Leonard sidelined this season, and he’s filled that role admirably. His shooting efficiency is down a bit to start the year – his 34.7% from 3-point range is his worst mark since his rookie season – but he’s made up for it through sheer volume. He’s on pace to post a new career-high in usage rate, and his rebound and assist rates are also up from last year. Overall, George has averaged 47.89 FanDuel points through his first 14 games, which represents an increase of more than 7.5 fantasy points compared to last season.
George draws an elite matchup on Thursday vs. the Grizzlies. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace. He’s worth heavy consideration on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Sticking with the Clippers, they could also provide some value at the shooting guard position. Nicolas Batum is doubtful and Justise Winslow has been ruled out, which leaves the team a bit thin on the wing.
Eric Bledsoe should see a solid handful of minutes – he’s currently projected for 32 in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. That should be enough for him to return value, especially at $5,700 on FanDuel.
Terance Mann would also be interesting if he’s able to suit up. He’s listed as questionable after missing their last game, but he should also see around 32 minutes if he’s active. He’s significantly cheaper than Bledsoe across the industry, so he doesn’t need to do quite as much to pay off his salary.
Fast Break
It feels like D’Angelo Russell is on the cusp of a big game. He’s scored at least 35.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three contests, and he’s shot just 36.5% from the field and 21.7% from 3-point range over that stretch. Russell is far from a dead-eye shooter, but he has room for improvement moving forward. If he can make a few extra shots vs. the Spurs, he has upside around 50 fantasy points.
Bradley Beal has been a bit disappointing this season, but he has some buy-low appeal at $8,700 on FanDuel. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.87 with a comparable salary, and that figure jumps to +5.71 since the start of 2019.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler returned to the lineup Wednesday after missing the past three games, and he wasted no time making an impact. He picked up a triple-double with 31 points, resulting in 64 DraftKings points. Butler has been providing massive fantasy impact when on the floor this season – he’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute – and he’s on pace for a new career-high in usage.
Unfortunately, he draws a tough matchup Thursday vs. the Wizards. The Wizards have previously been one of the best matchups in fantasy, but they’ve dropped to just 21st in pace this season. The Heat rank 25th in that department, and both teams rank in the top seven in terms of defensive efficiency. Unsurprisingly, the total on this game sits at just 206.5, so this could be a bit of a slog.
Value
Andre Iguodala will get the night off for the Warriors, which means Otto Porter should see a slight bump in playing time. We currently have him projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough for him to return value. Porter has historically been an excellent fantasy producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Scottie Barnes has had an impressive start to his rookie season, and he could be asked to play massive minutes on Thursday. The team will be without OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa, and Barnes was already routinely playing 38 minutes a night. He’s increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with Anunoby off the court this season, so he has excellent upside.
The Nuggets are expected to be without Will Barton on Thursday, which means P.J. Dozier could be asked to pick up the slack. He’s been an awesome fantasy value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, even though he’s played 24.7 minutes or less in each contest. He could be an awesome target if he gets a few additional minutes vs. the 76ers.
Power Forward
Stud
Joel Embiid will miss another game for the 76ers, which means Tobias Harris will serve as their offensive focal point. He struggled in that role in their last game, finishing with just 29.0 DraftKings points, but he was limited to 27.4 minutes in a blowout loss vs. the Jazz. That said, he dominated the Pacers in his previous contest, finishing with 51.25 DraftKings points.
Unfortunately, his matchup vs. the Nuggets is about as poor as it gets from a fantasy perspective. They’ve played at the second-slowest pace this season, and they rank third in defensive efficiency. The 76ers have played at the slowest pace, so this game could feature a minimal number of possessions.
Still, Harris is simply too strong of a value to completely ignore on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Jeff Green is another potential value option for the Nuggets. He’s priced at $3,800 on DraftKings, and he’s logged at least 31.4 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.84.
Fast Break
The Spurs continue to play without Jakob Poeltl, which means Thaddeus Young should continue to grab a few additional minutes. He’s a monster when he gets the opportunity to play – he’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute this season – and his matchup vs. the Timberwolves comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.53.
Bam Adebayo is currently questionable, and he’s missed the past two games for the Heat. However, he’s always an appealing option on FanDuel when he’s in the lineup. He has dual PF/C eligibility, and using a true center like Adebayo in the PF spot has merit.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has gotten very pricy across the industry. He is up to $12,000 on DraftKings and $11,600 on FanDuel, but it is hard to argue against him. He has put together a massive season, averaging 26.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, and he has averaged 1.84 DraftKings points per minute. Jokic is coming off 69 DraftKings points in his last contest, and he has scored at least 66.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games.
He figures to be even better if Barton is ruled out. He’s averaged 1.91 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he’s producing at a level that is basically unmatched by anyone else on the slate. The matchup vs. the 76ers isn’t ideal, but Jokic is a very tough fade.
Value
Drew Eubanks is an outstanding value option for the Spurs on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Young. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should see around 24 minutes on Thursday.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns is an interesting pivot away from Jokic on Thursday. He’s significantly cheaper – especially on FanDuel – and he has the superior matchup as well. He hasn’t been nearly as productive as Jokic on a per-minute basis, but he should check in with far lower ownership.
Ivica Zubac is also worth some consideration. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season. That makes him a nice potential value at just $5,100.
