After a huge 13-game Wednesday slate, we’ve got just three games in the NBA tonight. Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Excluding his dud against the Nuggets, Kyle Lowry has posted some monster numbers in his last two games, averaging 19.0 points, 10.5 assists, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steal. He should be expected to take on a monster load tonight if Jimmy Butler (ankle) can’t play. Consider Lowry a genuine (and likely chalky) stud at a reasonable price tonight.
Value
Eric Bledsoe is a guy our models really like as a salary-saver on tonight’s slate. Over his last three games, Bledsoe has averaged just north of 28 minutes and scored at least 30 fantasy points twice. He’s exceeded his projections in three of his last four games as well.
Fast Break
After a two-game illness-related absence, Malcolm Brogdon returned to Indiana’s starting lineup without missing a beat. In Wednesday’s loss to the Nuggets, Brogdon went for 25 points, five assists, three rebounds, and five combined blocks/steals. Tonight’s matchup with the Jazz features the highest over/under (219.5) and lowest point spread (2) on the slate, making Brogdon a solid option.
T.J. McConnell has stepped up as a scorer as of late, averaging 17.7 points, 5.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steals over his last three contests. Despite reverting back to the bench with the return of Malcolm Brogdon, McConnell stayed heavily involved Wednesday. He makes an interesting pivot from some more popular options on tonight’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell is about as steady as they come in the NBA. In each of his last four seasons, he’s averaged at least 23 points, four rebounds, four assists, and a steal. He’s doing that again this season, though his scoring has been huge in recent games.
Over his last four contests, Mitchell has scored at least 36 points twice, posted at least 50 fantasy points in both of those contests, and failed to crack 40 fantasy points only once.
Value
Jordan Clarkson is our model’s favorite value tonight. He gets the benefit of a +2.05 Opponent Plus/Minus and the slate’s highest over/under. Clarkson averages north of 25 minutes per game, and his usage typically hovers around 25%.
His scoring has fallen off considerably since scoring 30 against the Hawks last week, but the reigning Sixth Man of the Year can get hot at any time, and he’s certainly an upside play on any slate, especially at this low salary and with so much working in his favor tonight.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet is enjoying another solid campaign, averaging 18.7 points and 1.7 steals to go with career highs in assists (7.1) and rebounds (4.9). He’s shown huge upside this season as a scorer (33-point game), facilitator (17-assist game), and rebounder (10-rebound game).
Keep an eye on the status of Seth Curry, who missed Tuesday’s game with a foot injury. If he’s able to return, the likes of Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz would get a downgrade in value.
Small Forward
Stud
If Jimmy Butler misses tonight’s contest, Tyler Herro should see a boost in production as the Heat’s offensive focal point. He’s averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game this season and went off for 27 last night.
Note: Herro is only eligible at SF on FanDuel
Value
Duncan Robinson was a guy I highlighted last night, and he paid off with his best game of the season. Robinson’s salary hasn’t moved since last night, so let’s go back to him on the second night of a back-to-back for Miami. After Jimmy Butler exited the game early due to an ankle injury, Robinson played 45 minutes, his most of the season.
Fast Break
Over his last six games, Georges Niang has averaged 16.8 points across 28.2 minutes per contest. Priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel, he remains a solid value tonight, even if Tobias Harris and/or Seth Curry return to the lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis was our stud in yesterday’s breakdown, and he went for 20 points and a season-best 19 rebounds against a depleted Nuggets frontcourt. Tonight’s matchup with Rudy Gobert and the Jazz is more formidable, but the Pacers’ big man still comes in with the highest ceiling on the slate.
Value
Tobias Harris has missed the last six games after a positive COVID-19 test, though he’s questionable to return tonight. If he’s able to go, he’s one of our model’s favorite values, particularly on FanDuel, where his salary is $1,400 cheaper. In six games played, Harris averaged 19.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 4.9 dimes.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) has averaged 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks in two games played. Those aren’t the types of numbers you should pay north of $8K for right now.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is averaging 14.6 points and 1.9 blocks to go with a career-high and NBA-leading 15.9 boards. His steady and elite work on the boards and as a defender keep him in play as the stud center on most slates. That will be no different tonight in a favorable game environment with the Pacers.
Value
Bam Adebayo went off for his best game of the season last night, walloping the Lakers with 28 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, and a whopping six steals. His salary hasn’t moved, and he’s unsurprisingly one of our top projected Pts/Sal plays on tonight’s slate.
Jimmy Butler should be considered highly questionable for the second night of a back-to-back after tweaking his ankle last night, making Adebayo an even more intriguing option.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond’s price has unsurprisingly skyrocketed to keep pace with his ridiculous production. In his last two games, Drummond has averaged 15.5 points and an incredible 22.5 rebounds. If you want to play him tonight, you’re going to have pay big bucks.
