Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
The Suns picked up their 17th straight win on Tuesday, but it came at a cost. Devin Booker suffered an injury in that contest, and he’s expected to miss at least the next four games.
Luckily, Chris Paul should be able to pick up the slack. He’s increased his usage and assist rates with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.
Paul also draws a strong matchup Thursday vs. the Pistons. They rank 21st in defensive efficiency, and Paul owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03. The Suns’ implied team total of 110.25 is also one of the top marks on the slate.
Value
You can go a few different directions if you’re paying down at point guard, but Anfernee Simons seems like the safest bet. He should continue to start in place of the injured Damian Lillard, and Simons has thrived in that role so far this season. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in each of his two starts, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Lillard off the court. Simons is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should be able to pay off his price tag pretty easily.
Fast Break
The Raptors are still playing shorthanded – OG Anunoby and Khem Birch are out, Gary Trent Jr. is questionable – and Fred VanVleet has carried an insane workload in their absence. He’s coming off 41.8 minutes in his last contest, and he’s logged at least 38 minutes in four of his past five games. His price tag has dropped to just $8,000 on FanDuel, making him a nice buy-low option.
Cameron Payne is another potential target for the Suns. He’s an excellent per-minute contributor, averaging 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he could see a few additional minutes on Thursday.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is underpriced at just $7,900 on FanDuel, where he has dual PG/SG eligibility. The Thunder have already ruled out Josh Giddey for the second-straight game, and SGA was excellent in his first game without his rookie teammate this season. He posted a season-high 39.2% usage rate, and he finished with 39 points scored. He wasn’t as productive as usual in the peripheral categories, but he still racked up 48.8 FanDuel points. He’s an excellent option vs. the Grizzlies, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season.
Value
Sticking with the Thunder, Tre Mann is a nice source of value at $3,600 on DraftKings. He struggled a bit in his last outing, shooting just 4-13 from the field, but he played a season-high 32.1 minutes. Mann has logged at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, and that’s a lot of playing time for someone with such a minimal price tag. He’s projected for 30 minutes again on Thursday, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.14 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Landry Shamet also stands out for the Suns. It’s unclear exactly how the playing time will shake out with Booker out of the lineup, but Shamet played a respectable 23.8 minutes Tuesday vs. the Warriors. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so Shamet doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 83%.
Norman Powell has missed the past two games with a quad injury, and he’s questionable Tuesday vs. the Spurs. If he’s active, he should help pick up some of the slack from the Lillard injury. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with Lillard off the floor this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Is Alec Burks now a fantasy stud? It’s possible. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.98 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s played well enough to force Kemba Walker out of the Knicks’ rotation. Burks will start at the point for the foreseeable future, and nothing in his statistics predicts much regression. He’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and it isn’t like he’s ridden unsustainably hot shooting. He will likely see a slight dip in playing time on Thursday, but he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and should still see around 35 minutes. That makes him a strong option at just $6,500.
Value
Javonte Green has become an important part of the Bulls’ rotation. He’s coming off 35.9 minutes in his last game, and he should see a boost in value while Coby White is sidelined for health and safety protocols. Green isn’t great on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season – but that’s plenty for his current salary.
Fast Break
Dillon Brooks is coming off a disappointing performance in his last game, but there were actually some positives to take away from that outing. He continues to command a massive usage rate with Ja Morant out of the lineup, and Brooks played a season-high 33.4 minutes. Brooks has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with Morant off the court this season, so he can do a ton of damage with that much playing time.
Lu Dort has played at least 35.9 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 31.8 FanDuel points in each of them. He should see another sizable workload sans Giddey, making him underpriced at $5,600 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo put together a vintage Giannis performance yesterday vs. the Hornets. He finished with 40 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists, and he extended the Bucks’ winning streak to eight games with a game-winning layup. Giannis continues to be one of the best per-minute producers in the entire league, and his $11,000 salary on FanDuel is very reasonable.
Things are a bit more complicated on DraftKings, where Giannis has been priced up to $12,000. I thought he was worth paying up for in a smash spot vs. the Hornets, but I’m not nearly as bullish vs. the Raptors. The Bucks’ implied team total is fewer than 10 points lower than it was yesterday, and the Raptors have played at the third-slowest pace in the league. I’ll never fully fade Giannis, but I’ll be underweight on him on Thursday.
Value
Cameron Johnson has the potential to be the biggest beneficiary of the Booker injury. He started the second half in place of Booker, which makes him the leading candidate to start on Thursday. He ultimately finished with 27.0 DraftKings points over 29.4 minutes, and he’s increased his production to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute with Booker off the court.
Fast Break
Bobby Portis continues to warrant attention on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, which has caused his salary to dip by -$400 for today’s matchup. He’s still averaged a stout 1.1 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination.
Jaren Jackson Jr. could easily be considered a stud on Thursday. He’s been a monster with Morant out of the lineup recently, and he’s coming off 46.7 FanDuel points in his last outing. His $6,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%, and he’s in an elite spot vs. the Thunder. Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91, and the Grizzlies’ implied team total ranks first on the slate.
Center
Stud
The buy-low window on Nikola Vucevic is officially closed. He dominated in his last contest, finishing with 62.5 DraftKings points over 35.4 minutes, which has caused his salary to skyrocket. He’s up to $9,300 on DraftKings for Thursday’s matchup vs. the Knicks, but Vucevic can still potentially return value at that price tag. His ownership should also be modest, making him an interesting option for tournaments.
Value
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl racked up nearly 34 minutes in yesterday’s contest, and he could be looking at another large workload on Thursday. Derrick Favors has already been ruled out, while Mike Muscala’s status is TBD. JRE has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can take advantage of a few additional minutes.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has center eligibility on FanDuel, where he leads all players with 11 Pro Trends. He hasn’t been his usual dominant self recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.30 over his past 10 games, but he did score 49.8 FanDuel points in his last outing. Randle has some buy-low appeal at $8,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Jusuf Nurkic has been a beast on a per-minute basis this season, but his playing time has been inconsistent. Perhaps that will change with Lillard out of the lineup. Nurkic is one of the team’s best passers, so he can help fill that void.
