Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Virtually every team on today’s slate is dealing with some absences, and the Knicks are no exception. They’ll be without R.J. Barrett, Obi Toppin, and Quentin Grimes, which opens up a few additional minutes for the rest of the roster. Derrick Rose should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 33 minutes in each of his past three games. Rose is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should be looking at another healthy workload on Thursday.
Value
The Nets are absolutely decimated at the moment. They’ll be missing seven players due to health and safety protocols, including James Harden and LaMarcus Aldridge.
David Duke Jr. moved into the starting lineup in their last game, and he put together a massive performance. He finished with 40.25 DraftKings points over 37.7 minutes, and he only shot 4-13 from the field. That means his performance wasn’t overly fluky. I wouldn’t expect another 40+ fantasy points on Thursday, but you don’t need nearly that much given his current price tag. He remains very affordable at just $4,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
The Pacers have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Pistons. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the Pacers’ implied team total of 109.75 ranks second on the slate. Malcolm Brogdon owns one of the best individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 on FanDuel. His nine Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
The Suns are still playing without Devin Booker, and Cameron Payne has been a nice source of value in his stead. He’s scored at least 22.8 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s coming off more than 34 minutes in his last outing.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard doesn’t stand out as a position to pay up for on Thursday. I’m probably not looking to go any higher than Eric Gordon on DraftKings, who’s priced at just $5,600. He should continue to benefit from the absences of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., and Christian Wood is also doubtful. Gordon leads the team with a 27.6% usage rate with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s coming off 42.75 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Value
Caris LeVert remains criminally underpriced on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. LeVert has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s logged at least 36.6 minutes in two of his past three games. He failed to hit that threshold in his last contest, but the Pacers lost that game by 15 points. I would expect him to play a bit more if Thursday’s game is more competitive.
Fast Break
Frank Jackson has been playing well for the Pistons recently. He’s logged at least 30.6 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s responded with at least 27.5 DraftKings points in both contests. The Pistons won’t be quite as thin in the backcourt as they were in their last game, but the team is still playing without both Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk. Jackson is someone who can help pick up the slack.
Bradley Beal is an interesting pay-up option on FanDuel. He should carry minimal ownership, but he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. Beal hasn’t played his best to start the year, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01 with a comparable salary since the start of the 2019-20 season (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
There are plenty of strong value options on Thursday’s slate, so paying up for Kevin Durant feels mandatory. He’s the best player in basketball, and he’s been asked to do everything for the team without Harden recently. Durant has logged at least 41.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 72.25 DraftKings points in both. There’s no reason to overthink this one.
Value
Kessler Edwards is another potential source of value for the shorthanded Nets. He played 43.7 minutes in their overtime win over the Raptors on Tuesday, and he racked up 38.5 DraftKings points. Edwards shot the ball well in that contest – he was 7-12 from the field and 3-6 from 3-point range – but he should see another sizable workload. He’s simply too cheap at $4,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Alec Burks returned to the Knicks’ lineup in their last game, and he stepped right back into a massive workload. He finished with 38.8 minutes, and Burks has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season. Burks owns the top Opponent Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Cam Johnson has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.29 over his past 10 games. His price has shot up across the industry, but he’ll still have a chance to pay off his current salary.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle hasn’t been the same dominant force as last year, but he’s still averaged a solid 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season. He could be looking at a massive workload on Thursday. In addition to Toppin being out of the lineup, Kevin Knox has also entered the league’s health and safety protocols. Knox had played at least 20.3 minutes off the bench in each of their past two games, and some of those minutes could find their way to Randle vs. the Rockets.
Value
Daniel Theis earned the start at center yesterday with Wood out of the lineup, and he could draw that designation again on Thursday. He ultimately finished with just 18.4 minutes, but that was enough to rack up 15.0 DraftKings points. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s not a killer at the absolute minimum. Theis makes sense if you’re looking to go full “stars and scrubs,” but he’s admittedly one of the weaker value plays on the slate.
Fast Break
The Nets were forced to dust off Blake Griffin in their last contest, and the old man is still a capable fantasy producer when given the opportunity. He finished with 32.75 DraftKings points over 30.7 minutes, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a strong option at just $5,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Tobias Harris has seen a sizable price decrease recently, and his $7,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He hasn’t been quite as good as usual recently, but he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 with a comparable price tag as a member of the 76ers.
Center
Stud
Alperen Sengun isn’t priced like a stud, but he’s capable of stud-like production on Thursday. He’s been one of the best centers in fantasy on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time is also trending in the right direction, and he’s coming off 27.6 minutes with Wood out of the lineup on Wednesday. He finished with 46.75 DraftKings points in that contest, so he’s one of the easiest plays on the slate.
Value
Nicolas Claxton is another potential value option for the Nets. He didn’t see a huge spike in playing time in their last game, but he finished with 27.75 DraftKings points over 26.1 minutes. Claxton has historically been the type of player who can average over a fantasy point per minute, so that kind of production isn’t fluky. He’s massively underpriced at just $3,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell is always going to have some appeal in DFS. His playing time is volatile on a night-to-night basis, but he’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season. That gives him a strong ceiling in games where he hits his minute ceiling. He’s a decent option at $5,100 on FanDuel.
Domantas Sabonis got off to a slow start this season, but he’s started to turn things on. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s increased his production to 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He stands out as one of the best pure values at the position given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
