Sunday features a seven-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry is tops on the Player Model, but there’s risk since the Vegas Dashboard has the Warriors favored by 12 points. In two of the last three games, Curry has played fewer than 30 minutes due to blowouts. Therefore, I like Dejounte Murray ($9,100) slightly better today. He’s $1,600 cheaper, and he’s gone for at least 50 DraftKings points in the last two games. Over the last six games, he’s gone for at least 48 in five of the six with a high of 71.
The Thunder are 25th in defensive efficiency and boost the FPPM to point guards by 6.37%. Murray is averaging a +5.37 Plus/Minus and has exceeded point expectations 70% of the time.
Value
Davion Mitchell ($4,400) has put up 28, 26.5, and 31.5 DraftKings points in the last three games. The usage rate has been 22.1%, 22.6%, and 26.6% while playing 30, 26, and 25 minutes. He’s attempted double-digit shots and scored in double figures in each of those contests. After a slow start to his rookie season, it looks like Mitchell is getting comfortable and has a defined role now.
Fast Break
If Malcolm Brogdon misses another game, then TJ McConnell ($5,300) would be a fine play. He’s scored at least 37 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. The game environment and matchup would be good as Sacramento is fifth in offensive pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency. They also boost the FPPM to point guards by 11.72%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The top of the shooting guard landscape isn’t great. Donovan Mitchell is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back while being favored by 12.5 points. Bradley Beal ($9,200) has averaged a -6.61 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations only 10% of the time. That said, the Wizards are one-point home dogs to the Bucks, so a full plate of Beal should be on the menu. He does have two games over 40 DraftKings points — 48.25 and 51.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,200) has a +4.33 Plus/Minus on the season and has exceeded point expectations 60% of the time. Over the last four games, he’s put up 37.5, 22, 24.75, and 31.25 DraftKings points. Normally a low-usage player, he’s had rates in the 16% to 19% range. The Bucks’ defensive philosophy is inside/out, and they will likely focus on maintaining contact with Beal, so Caldwell-Pope should get plenty of good looks. He’s chipped in plenty of rebounds and steals over the last four games, which have boosted his fantasy production. I wouldn’t expect that to continue, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
Fast Break
Devin Vassell ($4,500) looks to have cemented his role as the main guy off the bench for the Spurs. Over the last three games, he’s played 26, 27, and 31 minutes while garnering a usage rate in the 20% to 24% range. He’s scored double-digits in each contest and contributed plenty of defensive stats. That’s translated to 28.75, 30.75, and 24 DraftKings points.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George ($10,400) is THE guy for the Clippers. The usage rate has been over 30% in every game, with a high of 43%. He’s gone for at least 50 DraftKings points in five of eight games, with three of those over 60. He gets to face a Hornets team that is fourth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. They also boost the FPPM to small forwards by 8.84%.
Value
Nicolas Batum ($4,700) has averaged a +5.04 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 67% of the time. He’s starting and playing around 30 minutes per contest. Over the last three games, he’s put up 33.5, 34.25, and 26.5 DraftKings points. He’s a low-usage player who chips in a little in every statistical category, but he has scored in double figures in each of the last three. I went over above why the game environment is a good one.
Fast Break
RJ Barrett ($6,800) has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last four games with a high of 56.5. The lack of defensive stats are concerning, but the usage rate is in the mid-20% range, and he’s scored at least 20 points in each of those contests. He plays a ton of minutes (36, 39, 34, and 39), so there will always be opportunities to produce fantasy goodies. This should be a slow-paced game, and Cleveland is 12th in defensive efficiency, but they boost the FPPM to small forwards by 5.33%, and Dean Wade will likely be matched up against him.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) is the most expensive player on the slate, with the highest floor and ceiling projection. Ain’t nuthin’ but a “G” thang, baby! Giannis averages a robust 1.61 DraftKings points per minute. The Bucks are only favored by one point on the road, so he should get his full allotment of minutes.
Value
Royce O’Neale ($4,400) is always gross to recommend because he’s a low-usage player with a limited ceiling. He’s coming off a 36.75 DraftKings game, but that was on the back of six steals. I’m not expecting that to be replicated. Somewhere around 20 DraftKings points is the expectation, which isn’t too bad if searching for value. The main allure of O’Neale is that he starts and plays around 32 minutes a game. That just gives him more chances to trip into a rebound or get hit with a steal.
Fast Break
Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000) has sneakily played 31, 34, and 35 minutes in the last three games after receiving fewer than 20 in the prior two. As a result, he’s put up 25, 27.25, and 34.75 DraftKings points. The Warriors are seventh in offensive pace while the Rockets are second.
Center
Stud
Jarrett Allen ($7,100) has averaged a positive 3.78 Plus/Minus on the season and exceeded point expectations 50% of the time. Over the last three games, though, he’s been en fuego, producing 56, 55.75, and 41.25 DraftKings points. He’s double-doubled in all three games, stuffed the stat sheet with defensive stats, and scored 24 points twice. Now he gets a matchup against a Knicks team that boosts the FPPM to centers by 4.54%.
Value
Isaiah Hartenstein ($3,400) hasn’t played over 20 minutes in any game this season. The production has been inconsistent, but he is averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and has gone for at least 20 DraftKings points in four games this season. This game environment is a juicy one, and the Hornets boost the FPPM to centers by 2.67%.
Fast Break
Myles Turner ($6,200) likes to hang out on the perimeter and make it rain from downtown. Well, the Kings boost three-pointers to centers by a whopping 52.86%. Yippee! On defense, Turner has 27 blocks on the season and at least one in every game. The fantasy production has been all over the map this season, but he has games of 57.25 and 64 DraftKings points.
