Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook always pops in the Player Model, but I can’t go there, especially with LeBron James likely playing. So, Stephen Curry it is. All he’s done over the last six games is go for 61, 62.75, 56, 58, 42.25, and 88.75 DraftKings points. According to the Vegas Dashboard, the Warriors are the biggest favorites on the slate at nine points, and the Raptors have negated the FPPM to point guards by 8.22% on the season.
That said, if the Warriors do blow out the Raptors, it will likely be because of a big game from Curry. In addition, while Toronto has done a good job overall against point guards, they have boosted three-pointers by 19.01%, a Curry specialty.
Value
Facundo Campazzo used to be a consistent part of the rotation. Over the last seven games, though, he’s played fewer than 10 minutes in five of seven games. On Friday, he did play 27 minutes and produce 30 DraftKings points as Nikola Jokic missed that contest. Jokic is questionable for today, so Campazzo could get mid-20s minutes again if he misses.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet is a volatile option and has the worst matchup for point guards, as the Warriors negate the FPPM by a league-leading 16.25 percent. That said, it’s a pace-up spot for Toronto as Golden State is eighth in offensive pace. In addition, VanVleet has four games above 50 DraftKings points. If the Raptors make this game competitive, VanVleet will likely be a big reason why since he has a usage rate in the high 20% range.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Will Barton has been the Robin to the Jokic Batman with Michael Porter Jr. out. He’s gone for at least 40 DraftKings points in four contests this season. Jokic is questionable for today, so Barton could become the Batman for a second-straight game. In the last contest, he went for 23 points and 35 DraftKings points against a tough Bulls team. Phoenix is fifth in offensive pace, and they boost the FPPM to shooting guards by 3.2%, so the matchup and game environment should both be good for Barton.
Value
Alec Burks has averaged a positive Plus/Minus 3.81 on the season and exceeded point expectations 50% of the time. Over the last four games, he’s produced 43.75, 31.25, 9.75, and 37.75 DraftKings points. He’s been the far superior option over Evan Fournier as of late, and his offensive prowess will be needed against a tough Bulls team.
Fast Break
Gary Trent Jr. has averaged a positive 7.49 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. He’s averaging 34.6 minutes and 14.7 shot attempts per game. Over the last five games, he’s scored at least 30 DraftKings points in every contest with a high of 42.5. Golden State plays at the eighth-fastest pace, so there should be plenty of chances to score those fantasy goodies.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is listed as questionable, but I think he plays since this is not part of a back-to-back, and the Lakers have lost four of their last five games. James only put up 37.5 DraftKings points on Friday, but he had missed the prior six games, and the Celtics hammered Los Angeles by 22 points. He will get back into the groove and put up the normal 45 to 50 DraftKings points sooner than later. Detroit is 22nd in defensive efficiency, so this could be a nice bounceback game for LeBron.
Value
Mikal Bridges is a low-usage player and has exceeded 30 DraftKings points only twice this season. That said, the floor is relatively high as he’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points in every contest with 11 above 20. He’s appropriately priced, so he’s not a screaming value, but he’s on the court a ton (33 mpg), so the chances for fantasy goodies are there.
Fast Break
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged a +4.02 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 70% of the time. The minutes have been in the 17 to 21 range for most of the season, but his role seems to have increased a bit over the last few games. The usage rate has been 25%, 19.9%, and 21.2%, while he’s scored double figures in two of those contest. That’s translated to 27.5, 14.25, and 23.25 DraftKings points.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis can be the highest raw points scorer on any given slate, as he can literally do it all. He has four games with at least 65 DraftKings points with a high of 70.75. With LeBron James off the court, the Bulls and Bucks both double-teamed him, limiting him to nine and 15 shots. With LeBron back, the shot attempts went back up to 21.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica is a risky play as the Raptors could just hunt him on defense and play him off the court. That said, he’s sub-$4,000 and has gone for 28 and 29.25 DraftKings points in the last two games. Granted, one of those games was with most of the starters sitting but still. He’s scored 14 points in each game and garnered a usage rate of 23.1% and 26.9%. The floor is low, but the ceiling is high if things break right.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam is starting to round into form. Over the last four games, he’s gone for 54, 38.5, 17.25, and 47 DraftKings points. He’s played 35, 39, 31, and 30 minutes.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic will be written up any time he’s on the slate. He scoffs at matchups and is a threat to triple-double in any game. He is questionable for this one, so keep an eye on the injury updates. Jokic averages a ridiculous 1.62 DraftKings points per minute and has the highest floor/ceiling combo. He’s scored at least 40 DraftKings points in every game with nine above 50, six above 60, and two with at least 70.
Value
Nerlens Noel should get all the minutes he can handle today. Both Mitchell Robinson and Taj Gibson are out. Noel averages 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, and the Bulls boost the FPPM to centers by 4.5%.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been money in the bank this season. Outside a 14.75-DraftKings points game in a blowout to the Trail Blazers back in October, Ayton has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in every other contest with two above 40 and a high of 53.75. He’s grabbed at least 10 boards in every game but one and contributes defensive stats.
