Happy New Year! Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Derrick White has been playing some excellent basketball of late. He’s had to increase his production with Dejounte Murray out of the lineup, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on DraftKings. That includes his last contest, where he racked up 33.5 DraftKings points over an unusually low 23.9 minutes.
White should return to his normal workload on Saturday – he’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency. White is an excellent target across the industry, but he’s an elite option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
The Nuggets are going to be a bit thin at point guard on Saturday. Monte Morris and Bones Hyland are currently in health and safety protocols, while Austin Rivers is questionable with a thumb injury.
That leaves plenty of playing time for Facundo Campazzo. He’s been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.64 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s massively underpriced at $4,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fast Break
Who is Derrick Walton Jr.? I wouldn’t be surprised if you’ve never heard of him. He’s bounced around for the past few seasons, spending time in the NBA, the G League, and overseas. However, he’s logged at least 31.2 minutes for the Pistons in back-to-back games, so he’s someone we need to know now. He’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Spurs, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Reggie Jackson was limited to just 31 minutes in his first game following a stint in health and safety protocols, but his playing time figures to increase moving forward. He should also be one of the Clippers’ primary scoring threats with Paul George sidelined. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +5.2% with George off the court, resulting in an average of 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. Jackson is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s hard to ignore what James Harden has done recently. He’s been outstanding since returning to the lineup three games ago, finishing with at least 64.8 FanDuel points in each contest. Two of those came without Kevin Durant, but Durant returned in their last contest. Harden posted a usage rate of 37.1% in that game, so Durant’s return had minimal impact on his production.
It remains to be seen if Harden can continue to put up elite numbers with Durant in the lineup, but a lack of minutes won’t be an issue. He’s logged at least 38.9 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s projected for 39 on Saturday.
Value
Will Barton has served as the Nuggets’ No. 2 offensive option all season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel. The Nuggets have more offensive upside than usual on Saturday given their matchup vs. the Rockets. The Rockets have played at the third-fastest pace this season, and they rank just 29th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 115.5 is tied for the top mark on the slate, so Barton and company can do some damage in this spot.
Fast Break
Cassius Stanley is another member of the Pistons we have to pay attention to on Saturday. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he racked up 27.4 minutes in their last game. He’s projected for a conservative 23 minutes vs. the Spurs, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Coby White has been doing work for the Bulls recently. He’s started at point guard with Lonzo Ball out of the lineup, and he’s racked up at least 42.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His price has barely budged over that time frame, and his $4,900 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Small Forward
Stud
Hamidou Diallo has entered stud territory for the COVID-stricken Pistons. He’s coming off one of the best games of his career in his last outing, racking up 60.6 FanDuel points over 38.4 minutes. Diallo has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so it’s not surprising that he’s taken advantage of increased playing time. He’s projected for another 38 minutes on Saturday’s slate, so he should be able to put together another strong outing.
Value
Devin Vassell was a major disappointment in his last game, finishing with just 10.75 DraftKings points over 20.1 minutes. However, he played 28.8 minutes in his previous contest, so he has the potential for improvement on Saturday. Vassell has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his $3,900 salary.
Fast Break
Saddiq Bey is another potential option for the Pistons. He’s actually become a bit cheaper than Diallo, and he provides a bit more stability with a slightly lower ceiling. He’s scored at least 33.8 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 41.5 in two of them.
Marcus Morris is also going to have to pick up the slack for the Clippers sans George. He’s done just that since returning to the lineup recently, logging at least 36.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He’s logged at least 37.7 minutes in each of his past two, and he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Morris is an elite option at just $5,800 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Power Forward
Stud
Christian Wood has power forward eligibility on FanDuel, and he stands out as the clear top stud option. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his $7,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s increased his production to 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential for a few additional minutes on Saturday. Alperen Sengun is not expected to play, and he’s seen a slight uptick in playing time as the season has progressed. Wood should absorb some of those minutes.
Value
The Clippers are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, so it will be important to monitor Serge Ibaka’s status. If he’s going to take on his usual workload, he stands out as an excellent option at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He scored 22.25 DraftKings points in just 17.8 minutes on Friday, so he can rack up fantasy points quickly. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games since returning to the lineup on December 20.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has been feasting recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +8.09 on FanDuel in each of his past four games. He should continue to benefit from the Wizards’ roster situation on Saturday. Spencer Dinwiddie, Rui Hachimura, Montrezl Harrell, and others all remain out of the lineup, so Kuzma should be asked to do more than usual. He’s a steal at $6,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
This could be a nice buy-low opportunity on Keldon Johnson. He’s struggled in back-to-back games, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight on DraftKings prior to his recent slump. He should also continue to carry a slightly larger usage rate with Murray out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
When it comes to studs, Nikola Jokic is in a tier of his own. The reigning MVP has been even better this season from a fantasy perspective, averaging 1.82 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Rockets – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.17 on DraftKings – and no one on the slate can match his upside. He’s pricy across the industry, but there’s enough value to fit him in your lineups comfortably.
Value
The Warriors have a big matchup vs. the Jazz on Saturday, and they will likely be without Draymond Green. That means Kevon Looney will have to handle most of the center minutes, making him a strong value option. He’s logged at least 26.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and Looney has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s too cheap at $3,800 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fast Break
Daniel Gafford should continue to garner increased interest for as long as Harrell is out of the lineup. He’s a solid producer on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season – and he’s seen a nice spike in playing time with Harrell out of the lineup. He’s logged at least 32.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 33.7 FanDuel points in both of them.
Luka Garza played more than 39.2 minutes in the Pistons’ last game, which is a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $4,300. He’s also averaged a respectable 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a viable option at center on Saturday.
