Saturday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
LaMelo Ball struggled with foul trouble in his last outing, which limited him to just 25.0 DraftKings points over 31.8 minutes. However, he had scored at least 49.5 DraftKings points in three of his previous four games. His poor showing on Friday has caused his price to dip slightly to $9,300 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Heat, and he has some appeal at that reduced price tag. He’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is the top mark among Saturday’s point guards by a sizable margin.
Value
The Thunder stand out as a prime source of value on Saturday. They’re still playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they own a fantastic matchup vs. the Kings. They rank ninth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, giving the Thunder much more offensive upside than usual. Their implied team total of 105.0 is still the lowest mark on the slate, but it’s four points higher than their season average.
Tre Mann stands out as a nice value in the backcourt. He’s racked up at least 32.0 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. Mann is very affordable at $4,100 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salary and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.70 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Anfernee Simons hasn’t been quite as dominant from a fantasy perspective since C.J. McCollum has returned to the lineup, but he’s still provided solid value. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 37 minutes in his last outing. His role only figures to grow after the team traded away Norman Powell, especially if Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, and Keon Johnson are not available to make their team debut.
Kyle Lowry returned to the Heat’s lineup following an extended personal absence on Thursday, and he was limited to just 25.5 minutes in his first game back. However, he could see a few additional minutes on Saturday, and his price has dipped to just $5,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Speaking of McCollum, he’s a viable stud option at a weak shooting guard position. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, but he continues to play a boatload of minutes. He’s racked up at least 38.1 minutes in two of those contests, but he has been plagued by some poor shooting numbers. With some positive shooting regression, he should be able to pay off his current price tag.
Value
Ty Jerome is another potential value option for the Thunder on Saturday. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time as Mann – he’s currently projected for 22.0 minutes in our NBA Models – but he’s significantly cheaper than Mann across the industry. Jerome has also been an excellent per-minute producer this season, averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s coming off 27.75 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Fast Break
Josh Giddey remains the preferred target for the Thunder on FanDuel, where he’s massively underpriced at $6,500. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and his 10 Pro Trends rank second at the position. Giddey is coming off a slightly disappointing performance in his last outing, but he scored at least 33.4 FanDuel points in each of his three previous games.
Terry Rozier leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment. He’s racked up at least 39.7 minutes in three straight games, and Rozier has averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s an appealing combination for someone who costs just $6,700.
Small Forward
Stud
If you’re looking for a slightly more expensive way to target the Thunder, Lu Dort stands out as your best bet. He’s taken on a larger scoring role with SGA out of the lineup, which has been a massive boost to his fantasy stock. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +5.97 in five straight games on DraftKings, and he’s had two performances of at least 46.5 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s increased his usage rate by +3.9% and his assist rate by +5.3% in seven games without Gilgeous-Alexander, resulting in an average of 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
C.J. Elleby got some burn for the Blazers in their last outing, and he responded with 22.5 DraftKings points over 26.7 minutes. There’s a chance he could get an extended look following the Powell trade, and Elleby has averaged a respectable 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum at just $3,000 on DraftKings. That gives him the potential to be one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
Miles Bridges’ price tag has dipped to just $7,300 on FanDuel, and he has some legit buy-low appeal at that salary. Bridges leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.82 in 15 games with a comparable salary.
Kelly Oubre stands out as the preferred Hornets target on DraftKings. His $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He hasn’t even shot the ball particularly well over that time frame – he’s just 10 for 31 from the field and 5-for-20 from 3-point range over his past two games – so there’s no reason he can’t duplicate that success on Saturday.
Power Forward
Stud
There are plenty of viable value targets on Saturday, which makes paying up for Giannis Antetokounmpo a stronger option than usual. Giannis is very expensive – especially at $12,100 on DraftKings – but no one on this slate can match his upside. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off a 75.75-point triple-double in his last outing.
He also draws an elite matchup vs. the Blazers. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 119.5 points is tops on the slate by a sizable margin. The only real concern is that this game turns into a blowout, with the Bucks currently listed as 10.5-point favorites.
Value
Darius Bazley stands out as the preferred option for the Thunder at power forward. He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. Bazley has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s seen a nice spike in playing time of late. He’s played at least 35.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s expected to see a similar workload on Saturday.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward returned to the lineup on Friday following a five-game absence, and he was limited to just 29.2 minutes in his return. He will likely see a few additional minutes on Saturday, and Hayward has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. That means he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $5,900 salary.
Julius Randle and the Knicks have been massive disappointments this season, but Randle could have some viability on Saturday. His price tag has dipped to just $8,700 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of -$1,300 over the past month. He also draws a favorable matchup vs. the Lakers, who have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season.
Center
Stud
Anthony Davis has played in each of the past five games for the Lakers, and he’s back to playing big minutes. He’s racked up at least 36.6 minutes in his past three contests, and he should continue to carry a larger usage rate than usual sans LeBron James. Davis has increased his usage rate by +4.1% with LeBron and Carmelo Anthony off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
We conclude our tour of the Thunder with Mamadi Diakite. The big man from Virginia has been used sparingly during his first two NBA seasons, but he was given the chance to play big minutes in the Thunder’s last game. He logged 30.4 minutes vs. the Blazers on Friday, and he responded with 29.25 DraftKings points. Diakite is projected for another 28 minutes on Saturday, making him an outstanding value option at the absolute minimum.
Fast Break
Bobby Portis has struggled recently for the Bucks, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. Still, he continues to play a consistent role for the Bucks, and he’s coming off nearly 35 minutes in his last outing. Portis has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can definitely pay off his current salary with that much playing time.
Jusuf Nurkic leads the position with a whopping 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s one of the best per-minute producers at the position, averaging 1.24 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 39.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games.
Pictured: Kenrich Williams, Darius Bazley and Josh Giddey
Credit: Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images
