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NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, Jan. 28): Take the Discount on LaMelo Ball

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

LaMelo Ball has been in a bit of a slump over the past month, but he broke out in a big way in his last contest. He racked up a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists, resulting in 69.0 DraftKings points.

Ball remains priced down across the industry, and he’s in another favorable spot on Friday. He’s taking on the Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Lakers are also below-average in terms of defensive efficiency, and they’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Continue to take the discount on Ball.

Value

Monte Morris stands out as a nice value option at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. Morris has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.46 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

The Nuggets also draw one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Pelicans. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Fast Break

Patrick Beverley has missed three straight games for the Timberwolves, and he’s questionable once again on Friday. However, he’s going to be a steal at $4,300 on DraftKings if he’s able to suit up. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Beverley has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That means he should be able to pay off his current salary even in reduced minutes.

The Hawks are currently riding a five-game winning streak, and the play of Trae Young has been a big reason why. He racked up 43.6 FanDuel points in just 24.7 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at $9,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The best matchup of the day belongs to the Trail Blazers, who are taking on the Rockets. They rank first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, which is an elite combination for fantasy purposes. The Blazers’ implied team total of 118.5 ultimately ranks second on the slate.

That makes C.J. McCollum an interesting option. He’s been a strong fantasy asset recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he should continue to carry a sizable workload sans Damian Lillard. McCollum is also reasonably priced across the industry.

Value

The Hornets have the potential to be a bit thin on the wing on Friday. Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels have already been ruled out, while Kelly Oubre is listed as questionable.

That should result in a few additional minutes for Cody Martin. He’s coming off 25.75 DraftKings points over 26 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has the potential to see well over 30 minutes in this contest, making him an appealing option at just $4,400.

Fast Break

Cole Anthony racked up 52.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +30.84 on FanDuel. He has seen a significant price jump for Friday’s contest vs. the Pistons, but he still stands out as underpriced. His $6,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and his matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50. That’s the top mark at the position.

The Heat are going to be without Kyle Lowry once again, so Tyler Herro should be asked to do a bit more than usual vs. the Clippers. He returned to the lineup in the Heat’s last game and finished with 34.0 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes. Overall, Herro has increased his usage rate by +1.5% with Lowry off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He’s underpriced at $6,400.

Small Forward

Stud

Sticking with the Heat, Jimmy Butler should also be asked to pick up the slack in Lowry’s absence. He wasn’t really needed in the Heat’s last game – he finished with 39.0 DraftKings points over 29.3 minutes – but he racked up 61.0 DraftKings points in his previous game. Butler has been in and out of the lineup with various ailments this season, but he has been excellent when on the floor. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 with a comparable salary since the start of last year, so he’s underpriced at $8,700.

Value

The Suns stand out as another strong team to target on Friday. They lead the slate in implied team total, and they’re going to be without several key contributors in the frontcourt. Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Jae Crowder have all been ruled out.

Cameron Johnson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s played at least 36.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s gotten a bit more expensive over that time frame, but he’s still way too cheap across the industry.

Fast Break

Devin Vassell is another nice value option on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. Vassell has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games.

Saddiq Bey stands out as underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games – including 33.9 FanDuel points in his last outing – yet his price has not budged from $5,600. He warrants consideration vs. the Magic, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is available on Friday’s slate, and he’s averaged a stout 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Still, he’s very pricy at $11,800.

I’d rather save a few dollars and go with DeMar DeRozan at $8,500. He stands out as the stronger value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in four straight games. The return of Zach LaVine hasn’t had a real impact on his usage rate, so DeRozan should continue to put up big numbers for the Bulls.

Value

The Clippers are going to be without Marcus Morris on Friday, and Paul George and Kawhi Leonard remain out with long-term injuries. That leaves the team without arguably their three best players.

Terance Mann should be called upon in their absence. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s more than enough playing time to pay off his minimal salary across the industry.

Fast Break

Keldon Johnson hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling recently for the Spurs, but he’s been reliable. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, including each of his past four. That said, his price has actually decreased over that time frame. He’s a nice option at just $5,100 vs. the Bulls.

Bobby Portis has been a solid source of fantasy value for most of the season, and he’s definitely still in play at $6,300 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 32.2 minutes in five of his past six games. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.97 over his past 10 contests.

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Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic is coming off 54.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. That would be an amazing game for most players, but it was actually slightly disappointing for the star big man. Still, no one in basketball can match Jokic’s ceiling at the moment. He’s averaged 1.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s capable of dominating the game in every area. Unlike Giannis, the Nuggets also need him to carry a massive workload on a nightly basis.

Jokic is pricy across the industry, but he’s always a strong option if you can afford him. He should have no problems dominating the Pelicans’ defense.

Value

Mason Plumlee is another member of the Hornets who has benefitted from their absences recently. He’s played 27.2 and 32.2 minutes in his past two games, and he’s unsurprisingly returned value in both contests. Plumlee has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of some additional playing time. He’s one of the best values of the day at $4,100 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Rudy Gobert remains out for the Jazz, so Hassan Whiteside should continue to start at center. Whiteside racked up 34.5 minutes in place of Gobert on Wednesday, and he’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s been priced up drastically across the industry, but he still possesses an elite ceiling at his current salary.

Bismack Biyombo should see the bulk of the center minutes for the Suns, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute since joining the team earlier this month. He’s scored at least 31.2 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 vs. the Timberwolves.

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

LaMelo Ball has been in a bit of a slump over the past month, but he broke out in a big way in his last contest. He racked up a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists, resulting in 69.0 DraftKings points.

Ball remains priced down across the industry, and he’s in another favorable spot on Friday. He’s taking on the Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Lakers are also below-average in terms of defensive efficiency, and they’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Continue to take the discount on Ball.

Value

Monte Morris stands out as a nice value option at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. Morris has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.46 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

The Nuggets also draw one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Pelicans. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Fast Break

Patrick Beverley has missed three straight games for the Timberwolves, and he’s questionable once again on Friday. However, he’s going to be a steal at $4,300 on DraftKings if he’s able to suit up. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Beverley has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That means he should be able to pay off his current salary even in reduced minutes.

The Hawks are currently riding a five-game winning streak, and the play of Trae Young has been a big reason why. He racked up 43.6 FanDuel points in just 24.7 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at $9,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The best matchup of the day belongs to the Trail Blazers, who are taking on the Rockets. They rank first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, which is an elite combination for fantasy purposes. The Blazers’ implied team total of 118.5 ultimately ranks second on the slate.

That makes C.J. McCollum an interesting option. He’s been a strong fantasy asset recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he should continue to carry a sizable workload sans Damian Lillard. McCollum is also reasonably priced across the industry.

Value

The Hornets have the potential to be a bit thin on the wing on Friday. Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels have already been ruled out, while Kelly Oubre is listed as questionable.

That should result in a few additional minutes for Cody Martin. He’s coming off 25.75 DraftKings points over 26 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has the potential to see well over 30 minutes in this contest, making him an appealing option at just $4,400.

Fast Break

Cole Anthony racked up 52.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +30.84 on FanDuel. He has seen a significant price jump for Friday’s contest vs. the Pistons, but he still stands out as underpriced. His $6,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and his matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50. That’s the top mark at the position.

The Heat are going to be without Kyle Lowry once again, so Tyler Herro should be asked to do a bit more than usual vs. the Clippers. He returned to the lineup in the Heat’s last game and finished with 34.0 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes. Overall, Herro has increased his usage rate by +1.5% with Lowry off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He’s underpriced at $6,400.

Small Forward

Stud

Sticking with the Heat, Jimmy Butler should also be asked to pick up the slack in Lowry’s absence. He wasn’t really needed in the Heat’s last game – he finished with 39.0 DraftKings points over 29.3 minutes – but he racked up 61.0 DraftKings points in his previous game. Butler has been in and out of the lineup with various ailments this season, but he has been excellent when on the floor. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 with a comparable salary since the start of last year, so he’s underpriced at $8,700.

Value

The Suns stand out as another strong team to target on Friday. They lead the slate in implied team total, and they’re going to be without several key contributors in the frontcourt. Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Jae Crowder have all been ruled out.

Cameron Johnson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s played at least 36.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s gotten a bit more expensive over that time frame, but he’s still way too cheap across the industry.

Fast Break

Devin Vassell is another nice value option on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. Vassell has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games.

Saddiq Bey stands out as underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games – including 33.9 FanDuel points in his last outing – yet his price has not budged from $5,600. He warrants consideration vs. the Magic, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is available on Friday’s slate, and he’s averaged a stout 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Still, he’s very pricy at $11,800.

I’d rather save a few dollars and go with DeMar DeRozan at $8,500. He stands out as the stronger value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in four straight games. The return of Zach LaVine hasn’t had a real impact on his usage rate, so DeRozan should continue to put up big numbers for the Bulls.

Value

The Clippers are going to be without Marcus Morris on Friday, and Paul George and Kawhi Leonard remain out with long-term injuries. That leaves the team without arguably their three best players.

Terance Mann should be called upon in their absence. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s more than enough playing time to pay off his minimal salary across the industry.

Fast Break

Keldon Johnson hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling recently for the Spurs, but he’s been reliable. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, including each of his past four. That said, his price has actually decreased over that time frame. He’s a nice option at just $5,100 vs. the Bulls.

Bobby Portis has been a solid source of fantasy value for most of the season, and he’s definitely still in play at $6,300 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 32.2 minutes in five of his past six games. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.97 over his past 10 contests.

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Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic is coming off 54.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. That would be an amazing game for most players, but it was actually slightly disappointing for the star big man. Still, no one in basketball can match Jokic’s ceiling at the moment. He’s averaged 1.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s capable of dominating the game in every area. Unlike Giannis, the Nuggets also need him to carry a massive workload on a nightly basis.

Jokic is pricy across the industry, but he’s always a strong option if you can afford him. He should have no problems dominating the Pelicans’ defense.

Value

Mason Plumlee is another member of the Hornets who has benefitted from their absences recently. He’s played 27.2 and 32.2 minutes in his past two games, and he’s unsurprisingly returned value in both contests. Plumlee has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of some additional playing time. He’s one of the best values of the day at $4,100 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Rudy Gobert remains out for the Jazz, so Hassan Whiteside should continue to start at center. Whiteside racked up 34.5 minutes in place of Gobert on Wednesday, and he’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s been priced up drastically across the industry, but he still possesses an elite ceiling at his current salary.

Bismack Biyombo should see the bulk of the center minutes for the Suns, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute since joining the team earlier this month. He’s scored at least 31.2 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 vs. the Timberwolves.