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Now let’s dive into the slate and discuss the three players I am highest on for today’s Christmas slate.
Stud
James Harden at Los Angeles Lakers – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The best pay-up option on the slate tonight is James Harden. It has been a while since we have seen him play. Harden was in the COVID protocol and hasn’t played in exactly two weeks. He is coming back at the perfect time with a matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. Assuming that Harden is a full-go, he looks amazing tonight.
The Lakers play at the fastest pace in the league this season, and they give up 112 points per game which is the fourth-highest. The main reason why Harden looks so good in this matchup, though is the Brooklyn Nets will be playing without Kevin Durant. Using our On/Off tool, Harden has a +6.7% usage rate with Durant off the floor.
Harden has only played two games all season in which Durant missed. In those two games, he averaged 30.5 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, and eight assists per game. He played a whopping 40.2 minutes per game and attempted over 20 field goals per game. Harden also had a 37% usage rate! There are a few expensive plays on this star-studded slate, but Harden stands out as the best option in the highest game total at 226 points.
Midrange
Kemba Walker vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Welcome back to the New York Knicks rotation Kemba Walker! Since returning, Walker has thrown back the clock to his college days. In his last three games, Walker has averaged 31.3 points per game, 7.7 rebounds per game, and 5.3 assists per game. He has attempted 20 or more field goals in each game. In his most recent game Walker finished with 44 points and had a ridiculous 70.75 DraftKings points. He will be incredibly popular tonight.
The Atlanta Hawks will be playing without key pieces, Trae Young and Clint Capela. Young is third in the league in points, while Capela is third in the league in rebounds. With Young and Capela out, the Knicks are 7-point home favorites tonight. If RJ Barrett returns, that would slide Walker to the bench more than likely. However, with no Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickly plus seeing how well Walker has played recently, he will get his minutes.
I certainly would not expect Walker to play 40 or more minutes as he has in the last two games. However, if he is starting, you can pencil Walker in for the high 30s in minutes due to how head coach Tom Thibodeau runs his rotations. This could be a great spot to get leverage on the super popular Walker if he is coming off the bench. The status of Barrett is one of the biggest pieces of news that we are waiting on. We’re lucky it is the first game of the slate.
Top Value
Otto Porter at Phoenix Suns – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Our model has Otto Porter as one of the top value plays on DraftKings tonight, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating. Porter moved into the starting lineup last game and played a season-high 30 minutes. He was a stat-stuffer with eight points, nine rebounds, three assists, one steal, and three blocks for 32.75 DraftKings points.
The Golden State Warriors are without starters Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole for their matchup against the Phoenix Suns. This matchup for Porter is about as difficult as they come. The Suns rank second in Defensive Rating, third in field goal percentage allowed, and fourth in points given up with only 104 per game.
Ironically the last time Porter played 30 minutes was the last time these two teams met in Phoenix, where the Suns won 104-96. Porter had 16 points and six rebounds for 31.50 DraftKings points. This matchup may be difficult, but Porter is arguably the best value on the slate tonight. Given the opportunity he has seen lately without Wiggins and Poole, Porter should be able to pay off this price tag with ease. The Suns play at the second-fastest pace in the league, so Porter will get plenty of looks in this game. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Warriors.
