The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Roope Hintz ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
The Dallas Stars offense has finally started to click. The team has now won four of its last five games and averaged 3.6 goals over that span. The biggest spark has come from Roope Hintz, who enters today with four goals and six points over his last five games as well. Hintz got off to a terrible start offensively but still ranks out inside the top 10% in the FantasyLab Pro Trends in shots on goal + blocked shots over the last month.
He’s rated inside the top 10 at center today in Ceiling Projection on both major sites and is a massive bargain on DraftKings, where he’s yet to see any massive price increase, despite the increased production, over the last two weeks.
Oh yeah, and he takes on the Coyotes, who remain a great opponent for any top-six forward. Hintz is a great core play to build around here and a player you should likely roster on every slate until we see a proper price increase.
Top Value
Phillip Danault ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Phillip Danault has cooled off from the hot offensive start that made him a great value target early in the season, but he still rates out as a good value today. The former Canadien is still averaging just under 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal for the season and remains a part of the Kings’ top-six, who are in a great spot today against the Senators. Ottawa has been an abject disaster of late and now rank bottom-five in shots against and penalty-kill percentage on the season.
Pairing Danault with the also underrated Alex Iafallo here gives you a good mini-stack, with great correlation, to deploy against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Kings have gone cold in goal scoring of late but have a 3.3 implied team total today, so don’t be afraid to go after their cheaper forwards for value.
Wing
Top Play
Max Pacioretty ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Golden Knights have finally started to return to full health, and now is the time I like jumping on their top-line to get some good upper-tier value returns. Max Pacioretty rates out second in Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today and has a monster 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he presents as a near must play to me.
The Oilers are far from a great defensive team and still rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of quality scoring chances allowed. They’re also still without their best goalie in Mike Smith, so a meltdown in net is always possible with them no matter the opponent.
In long-term form, Pacioretty ranks out fourth in goal rate and second in shots on goal per game at wing today — and faces a team allowing 33.8 shots against per game.
He’s someone you should get on while the sentiment is still low.
Top Value
Brandon Saad ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blues offense has provided us with a ton of great value options all year as St. Louis has ranked inside the top five in pretty much all offensive statistics since the season began. Brendon Saad is currently getting his chance at playing on the top line for the Blues and seeing first-line powerplay time as well. The Blues do tend to balance their scoring more than other teams, but this is still a significant fantasy shift for Saad, who we can pair with either Ryan O’Reilly or David Perron for quite cheap.
Saad ranks out in the top 5% at his position in shot attempts over the last month in the Pro Trends and has landed four goals and six points in his last six games now. The Blue Jackets have allowed the second-most shots on net per game this year and are a mediocre defensive team at best.
This is a great value we’re getting to use the St. Louis winger.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Golden Knights are a team I don’t mind going all-in on for various reasons, but if you’re paying up for just one of their players, the best option may be to just take the solid floor and upside that Alex Pietrangelo provides us on the nightly basis. Pietrangelo leads all defensemen on this slate in blocked shots + shots on goal per game in long-term form by a hefty chunk (5.38 per game) and tops the Ceiling Projection on both sites today.
The Oilers have been showing cracks in net and on defense and have now allowed three or more goals in six of their last seven games. Despite the great matchup and projections, he’s only the fourth most expensive player on defense on DraftKings and has a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel as well, where he’s even cheaper.
He should be your preferred pay-up option on defense today.
Top Value
Colton Parayko ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
I like getting exposure to the Blues offense today, who can go off for five-plus goals on any slate, let alone against weaker teams like the Blue Jackets. Colton Paryko is currently playing on the top pairing for the Blues and has only one goal on the season. This is player who has hit 10 goals twice in his career now, so his shooting percentage (which sits under 2.5%) should catch up to his career averages at some point.
He’s also averaging 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal per game this season which really puts him into élite territory in terms of his overall production. Considering the Blue Jackets allow over 34 shots a game, seeing him approach the bonus mark (potentially in both categories) wouldn’t be shocking here. Any offense added could mean a monster game at really cheap prices.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jonas Johansson ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Avalanche look set to start Jonas Johansson against the Predators today but still come in as -200 favorites. Johansson is third in Player ratings today in the Projected Points Model and may not be all that heavily owned given some of the other big names on the slate.
Nashville may also be starting a backup goalie in David Rittich, who would be facing a Colorado team that has averaged around six goals per game over the last few weeks. The Predators are generally a good team to start goalies against as they don’t have a ton of elite shooters and average under 3.0 goals per game. Johansson looks like a safer option today on a slate with lots of backups potentially getting starts.
Top Value
Robin Lehner ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The tournament strategy here is simple. The Oilers’ top guns will be heavily rostered, as always, which makes starting a goaltender against them a savvy move in big fields, especially one like Robin Lehner, who often steps up his play the tougher the competition gets.
The Swede looks to have bounced back after a bit of a rough patch and has now posted .929 save percentages in two of his last three starts. The Golden Knights are actually -132 favorites here on the MoneyLine, and Lehner rates out second in the Player ratings today as well. He’s a good value option to consider here, especially if you like the strategy of fading the Oilers studs.
Notable Stack
Golden Knights L1 – Max Pacioretty – Mark Stone – Chandler Stephenson
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
I like going with the Golden Knights in general today who are getting close to being back to full strength and will be a good leverage target against the Oilers in DFS, where the Edmonton Centres will surely have heavier ownership than anyone on Vegas.
Now that Max Pacioretty is back to full health, we can again deploy him and Mark Stone together and get great correlation at even strength and on the power play. Chandler Stephenson is averaging nearly a point per game this year as well yet comes at very cheap prices that keep our lineup costs low.
The Oilers also still allow 33.8 shots on net per game and have weaker/unproven goaltenders. The Vegas stack ranks highly in the Projected Points Model today and makes for a great target in GPPs, where most of the attention will be on the Oiler players.
