Week 10 brings us four more bye week teams: Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, and the New York Giants.
Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target in the ninth week of the 2021 NFL season.
Quarterback Target
Mac Jones ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD)
Jones presents incredible value as the 19th highest-priced signal-caller on FanDuel, cheaper than Trevor Simien and Jared Goff. After a disastrous run of six interceptions in four games, Jones has just one interception in the last three contests.
He will return to New England to face a Cleveland defense that has allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (4for4). The Browns are coming off a big win at Cleveland that was bolstered by early turnovers.
This game only has a 45 point over/under, but the 1.5 point spread implies a close game. Jones’ cost is so cheap that he only needs moderate production to hit the coveted 3x value. This play is very similar to Teddy Bridgewater last week, who ended as the overall QB6 despite a minimal price.
Jones still provides a 28.5 point projected ceiling on FantasyLabs, a nice play to provide cost latitude at the other positions.
Quarterback Fade
Ryan Tannehill ($6,200 DK, $7,100 FD)
The post-Derrick Henry season for the Titans started off in fine fashion with a 28-16 upset win at the Rams. This was Tennessee’s fifth straight win to move to 7-2 on the season.
However, the Titans’ win was more a result of turnovers than offensive efficiency. I’m not quite ready to trust Tannehill without his all-world running back in DFS.
Tannehill still has limited offensive options with wide receiver Julio Jones battling injuries and tight end Anthony Firsker a big disappointment. The Titans signal-caller ranks 13th in total passing yards but has seen his game total decrease in each of the past three contests.
The Saints are top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have the third-most interceptions (11) of any team. Similar to the Patriots, the New Orleans pass rush is actually better on the road. The Saints have averaged 2.6 sacks per road game compared to just 1.7 per game at home.
Tannehill is the sixth highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings and eighth-highest on FanDuel. I prefer lower-priced quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones, Matt Ryan, and even Taylor Heinicke this week.
Running Back Targets
Devin Singletary ($4,600 DK, $6,000 FD)
With Zach Moss likely out due to a concussion, I’m rolling with Devin Singletary in a bounce-back spot for Buffalo.
Singletary has shown the ability to have solid DFS production when Moss is out. In last week’s embarrassing loss to the Jaguars, he earned over 70% of the snaps and tallied seven receptions as the overall RB19. Since entering the league in 2019, Singletary has proven to be effective when trusted with the majority of the running back touches.
Singletary is our sixth highest-rated running back on DraftKings and eighth on FanDuel (depending on your Player Model). His low price on both sites is ideal in a game with the Bills favored by 13 points at the Jets. He carries one of the week’s safest floors, with limited upside needed to pay off his price.
Tony Pollard ($4,600 DK, $6,500 FD)
Pollard is another injury-based play, Pollard should see his highest snap share of the season at home against Atlanta.
Ezekiel Elliott suffered a knee contusion in Week 9’s loss to Denver and may not see his typical workload even if he plays. Dallas has a Super Bowl-caliber team and just averted a major injury with quarterback Dak Prescott. They certainly won’t force Elliott into a high opportunity share in a game they are favored by nine points.
The Cowboys rank seventh in run plays per game, guaranteeing rush volume. Pollard ranks fourth in true yards per carry, second in breakaway run rate and third among all running backs in evaded tackles per touch (PlayerProfiler). He is an efficient back with explosive upside in both the running and passing game. Whenever given the chance, he has produced at a high level.
In tournaments, I’m rolling with Pollard over higher-priced options such as Antonio Gibson, Damien Harris, and Javonte Williams.
Wide Receiver Target
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD)
Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is back, which should mean big things for DK Metcalf. As a result of his recent lack of production with backup quarterback Geno Smith, Metcalf’s price has dropped on DraftKings. He is only the 10th highest-priced wideout on DraftKings, yet is still second on FanDuel.
Metcalf has solid Ceiling and Floor Projections in our FantasyLabs Models, providing the perfect safety and floor upside we need from our wide receivers.
This is a play on historical averages, as the Wilson-Metcalf connection has provided consistent DFS production. Excluding his rookie season, Metcalf has averaged five receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, 0.71 touchdowns, and 17.5 FPPG in 21 games with Wilson.
This game carries a 49.5 point total with a point spread of only 3.5 points. With running back Chris Carson still out, I expect the passing game to see increased volume in a battle between elite quarterbacks. Metcalf has still battled his way to consecutive WR12 and WR9 performances, even without Wilson. Let’s take advantage of a DraftKings value that won’t be available after Week 10.
Wide Receiver Fade
Adam Thielen ($6,700 DK, $7,000 FD)
Justin Jefferson’s deep ball connection with Kirk Cousins finally appeared last week, a bad sign for teammate Adam Thielen.
Thielen only produced the overall WR42 stat line in Week 9 against Baltimore, quite different from the overall WR3 and WR13 games from the last two weeks. Minnesota now travels to Los Angeles to face a Chargers team with one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the third-fewest to opposing quarterbacks.
At the age of 31, Thielen’s production is primarily centered around touchdowns. If he doesn’t score, his production is limited. Thielen ranks fourth among all wide receivers with seven touchdowns, but in the two games, he didn’t score? WR64 and WR70. While he actually did score last week, he only finished as the WR42.
At $6,700 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel, combined with Jefferson engagement, I’m passing on Thielen this week in a tough matchup. I’d prefer much lower-priced players such as Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, and Michael Pittman.
Tight End Target
Noah Fant ($4,300 DK, $5,700 FD)
Buying on the COVID dip with Noah Fant, who should return this week against Philadelphia. Fant still ranks sixth among all tight ends in receptions and seventh in targets, despite missing last week’s game. He is an explosive player with 4.50 speed that ranks fourth at the position in snap share.
Denver returns home to face a Philadelphia team that has allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends. Fant has four games this year with seven or more targets, and backup Albert Okwuegbunam did little as the starter last week.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a preference for short to intermediate route passes and has peppered Fant with an average of 7.3 targets in Denver home games this season.
Tight end is such a tough position in DFS every week; I’m simply following the targets with Fant; he should catch lower ownership this week as well, given the COVID absence against Dallas.
