The NASCAR Cup Series makes its debut at World Wide Technology Raceway, also known as Gateway, for today’s Enjoy Illinois 300 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
Gateway is a 1.25-mile flat track with similarities to the three short flat tracks the Cup Series has already visited in 2022. Martinsville poses tight corners like Turns 1 and 2, while Phoenix and Richmond are faster with more flowing corners like Turns 3 and 4.
The latter two tracks also used the same tire combination that will be featured in today’s race.
That gives us plenty of data to work with in addition to practice and qualifying to assess today’s race.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Let’s jump into today’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway.
Coca-Cola 600 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Joey Logano ($8900): The driver who was fastest in practice over 10 and 15 consecutive laps is a must-start at only $8900. Logano will start seventh, but he should move to the front as the Team Penske cars were incredibly quick in practice.
Logano also finished second at Martinsville and won the preseason exhibition race, The Clash. He knows how to get it done at these short, flat tracks with tight corners.
William Byron ($9800): Byron didn’t light up the practice charts, but there’s a sneaky trend in there that should bode well for him during the race.
That’s because Byron had hardly any drop off between his five and 10-lap average. So while he was only 18th over five consecutive laps, he improved to 13th over 10 consecutive laps. If he trends like the other three Chevy drivers that made 15-lap runs with very little falloff, he’ll be right in the mix over the long run.
Byron has been one of the best cars at short, flat tracks in 2022. Don’t let a “mediocre” 10-lap time scare you off from a driver that has been one of the three best at this discipline in 2022, especially while there’s so much place differential potential starting in 24th.
A.J. Allmendinger ($6200): Allmendinger should be a lock to score double-digits in the place differential category barring any bad luck.
Allmendinger has averaged a 23.7 place finish over the three short, flat track races, and that’s despite starting Martinsville two laps down thanks to a pass through penalty at the start.
Eat the chalk here with Dinger to find value in the middle and upper tier with drivers you expect to finish up front.
Coca-Cola 600 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Ryan Blaney ($9600): You can play Blaney in cash games, but I also love him as a tournament play, especially in non-Logano lineups.
Yes, it’s possible to use Blaney and Logano together. Team Penske has been very strong this week. But in a scenario where Logano doesn’t lead a ton of laps, it’s quite possible that’s because Blaney got to the front before him and was able to hold him off.
Chase Elliott ($10,200): Elliott has been the best driver at the short, flat tracks in 2022. That includes a dominant car at both Phoenix and Martinsville, which have plenty of similarities to Gateway.
In fact, Elliott is second only to Byron in average fastest lap percentage at the short flat tracks.
Elliott should be overlooked on a weekend where the Team Penske drivers, Kyle Busch, and Ross Chastain are grabbing the attention in practice.
Bubba Wallace ($6700): Wallace was sneaky consistent in practice, showing very little falloff over 15 laps. The difference between his five and 15-lap time is a miniscule 0.081 seconds per lap.
Wallace was super strong at Gateway in the Truck Series, had an incredible car at Martinsville, and was consistent over the long run in practice. These are three positive signs for a driver starting in 18th. Look for him to push for a top-10 today.
Coca-Cola 600 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
We’re coming way out of left field on this one. I really like Cole Custer ($6300) in super-large-field tournaments.
I wouldn’t recommend Custer in higher-dollar or smaller contests, but if you’re looking to differentiate in a massive contest, this is the surprise pick you need.
Several drivers in Custer’s range will be chalky, such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, A.J. Allmendinger, Justin Haley, and Zane Smith. Even Bubba Wallace will be in more lineups than Custer.
But Custer has been sneaky at the short, flat tracks this year.
He finished 16th at Phoenix and had the 10th-most fastest laps at Richmond (yes, tire strategy is a reason for this). But the kicker is how strong he was at Martinsville. Custer ran inside the top five until a pit penalty set him back. He couldn’t recover at a track where passing was near impossible.
However, if Custer can just keep it in the mix, and flat tires become an issue, we could see him sneak into the top 10.
If, for example, someone like Erik Jones or Brad Keselowski has a major issue, Custer could be a brilliant pivot as a low-percentage play in an otherwise chalky lineup.
Don’t go crazy here, but I don’t mind up to 10% Cole Custer in a massive-field GPP. I project him for half that ownership.
