Merry Christmas! The NBA is offering up a five-game slate on Saturday starting at 12 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Christmas Day NBA projections are in very early and will be updated frequently before lock. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as news breaks.
Point Guard
Big-Ticket Item
This slate has lost a bit of luster due to health and safety protocols, but the NBA got a nice gift with James Harden being activated from health and safety protocols. He should be back in the lineup vs. the Lakers, and he’ll be asked to carry a large workload. Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge remain out of the lineup, and Harden has increased his usage rate by +9.7% with both players off the court. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s averaged 58.63 DraftKings points in two full games without Durant.
Stocking Stuffer
Delon Wright has started the past two games at point guard for the Hawks, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both outings. That said, it feels like he still has room for improvement. Wright has played at least 33.6 minutes in both outings, and he has historically provided excellent value with that much playing time. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in 28 games since the start of the 2020-21 season, and he’s averaged 34.70 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool).
However, Wright did leave the Hawks’ last game early due to an ankle injury. If he’s unable to suit up, Skylar Mays would become an appealing value at the position.
Grab Bag
The Mavericks continue to deal with plenty of absences, so Jalen Brunson should be asked to do more than usual. He’s coming off a slightly disappointing 36.0 DraftKings points in his last game, but he played 38.8 minutes. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. off the court, so he could put together a bigger performance on Christmas.
Kemba Walker went absolutely bananas for the Knicks on Thursday, racking up 70.75 DraftKings points over 43 minutes. It seems like his place in the rotation should be solidified, but the team will have Immanuel Quickley available after he cleared health and safety protocols. Walker has scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and the return of Quickley could result in reduced ownership.
Steph Curry has cooled off recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -15.24 over his past 10 games. However, he did turn things around in his last contest, finishing with 63.5 DraftKings points in a win over the Grizzlies. He has a tough matchup vs. the Suns, but Curry should see a few additional shot attempts with Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole out of the lineup. His price tag has also come back to reality a bit after peaking at $11,900 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
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Shooting guard stands out as the weakest position on the slate from a stud perspective. You can obviously use someone like Harden or Brunson if you’re paying up, but there isn’t really a “pure” shooting guard that stands out in this price range.
Alec Burks does make some sense at just $5,600 on FanDuel. He owns one of the top Bargain Ratings in our NBA Models, which is not surprising since his FanDuel salary is nearly -$2,000 cheaper than it is on DraftKings. Burks continues to log plenty of minutes for the Knicks, and the return of Quickley shouldn’t have a huge impact on him. Overall, Burks has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.41 with a comparable salary so far this season.
Stocking Stuffer
Gary Payton II should continue to see a few additional minutes for the Warriors. “The Mitten” has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he racked up 33.4 minutes in their last outing. He unsurprisingly finished with 30.0 DraftKings points in that contest, and he’s scored at least 25.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s underpriced at his current salary across the industry.
Grab Bag
Cam Reddish exploded for 51.5 DraftKings points two games ago, but he came back to reality in his most recent contest. Still, he finished with 24.75 DraftKings points over 27.6 minutes before exiting with an ankle injury. He briefly returned to the game after suffering the injury during the third quarter, but he didn’t last long before heading back to the locker room. Expect him to be listed as questionable on the injury report, but he has some bounce-back appeal if he’s active.
Devin Booker is coming off an excellent game Thursday vs. the Thunder, finishing with 56.25 DraftKings points over 35.1 minutes. He’s a bit overpriced at $8,700 on DraftKings, but he’s worth some consideration at $7,600 on FanDuel. The Warriors have been excellent defensively this season, but Booker has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.96 with a comparable salary.
Small Forward
Big-Ticket Item
LeBron James is set to become the all-time Christmas scoring leader this season. He needs just 13 points to pass the late, great Kobe Bryant, which should be a walk in the park for LeBron.
The Lakers have been a massive disappointment this season, and they enter Christmas on a four-game losing streak. However, it hasn’t been due to LeBron’s play. He’s racked up at least 61.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he finished with 36 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in his last outing. He did that in just 34.7 minutes, and he has the potential to play much more if this game vs. the Nets stays competitive.
LeBron should also continue to benefit from the absence of Anthony Davis. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.1% in games without Davis this season, resulting in an average of 1.56 DraftKings points per minute.
Stocking Stuffer
Sticking with the Lakers, Talen Horton-Tucker stands out as a strong buy-low target across the industry. He’s seen plenty of minutes recently, he simply hasn’t made any shots. He’s just 6-26 from the field and 0-9 from 3-point range over his past two contests, so he has plenty of room for improvement moving forward. THT is coming off 37.7 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. His ownership should be reasonable, making him one of my favorite tournament options at the position.
Grab Bag
Otto Porter is another potential source of savings at the position. He’s logged at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in both contests. That’s not surprising. Porter is capable of contributing in every category across the board and averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. He’s underpriced given the Warriors’ absences, especially at just $3,900 on DraftKings.
Mikal Bridges is a low-ceiling, high-floor type of play for his price tag. That’s not ideal for tournaments, but he does have a path to viability on Saturday. He’s the Suns’ best defensive wing, and he should see plenty of minutes to try to slow down Curry. He played 41.4 minutes in the Suns’ first meeting vs. the Warriors this season.
Power Forward
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Are you feeling lucky? If so, Giannis Antetokounmpo might be your guy. He’s been cleared to return to the lineup on Christmas, but his status for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Celtics is still unknown. Even if he is active, there’s a chance that he’ll be limited in his first game back.
Still, the potential of grabbing Antetokounmpo at reduced ownership is obviously worth considering. He’s been one of the best fantasy players in basketball this season, averaging 1.62 DraftKings points per minute. No one on this slate can come close to sniffing that mark. Giannis carries plenty of risk, but there’s definitely some upside if he can sniff 30 minutes.
Stocking Stuffer
Power forward stands out as one of the best sources of value on Saturday. The Nets have two potential options in Paul Millsap and Blake Griffin. Millsap was just cleared to return from health and safety protocols, and he should step right back into a role vs. the Lakers. Millsap has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with Durant and Aldridge off the court, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his minimum salary.
Griffin has been forced into a larger role with all the Nets’ COVID-19 issues, and he’s shown that he still has something left in the tank. He’s racked up at least 31.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 38.75 in his last contest. He will probably lose a few minutes to Millsap, but there’s still plenty of playing time available in Brooklyn. Griffin has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Durant and Aldridge off the floor, so his $5,600 salary on DraftKings is too low.
Grab Bag
Onyeka Okongwu is another elite source of value at power forward. He only recently returned to the Hawks’ lineup, but he’s averaged an excellent 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time also shot up to 34 minutes in the Hawks’ last game, and he should be looking at another sizable workload on Saturday. Clint Capela remains out of the lineup, so it makes sense for the Hawks to play Okongwu over Gorgui Dieng.
Note: Okongwu entered the health and safety protocols shortly after his article was published.
If you’re looking for a punt play with lower ownership, Nemanja Bjelica fits the description. He’s seen a slight boost in playing time recently, logging at least 22.2 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s outstanding on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he has the potential for bigger performances on nights where his shot is falling.
Julius Randle has not been the same player this season, and I don’t blame you if you want to put him on the naughty list. Still, he owns one of the top Bargain Ratings on FanDuel, and he has plenty of ceiling at just $8,700.
Center
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Center is another spot without a true stud to consider. Rudy Gobert is the closest thing to one, and the Jazz own the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Gobert has also posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 54.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two.
Still, it’s hard to get behind Gobert fully at his current price tag. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside given his limitations as a scorer. His ceiling doesn’t compare with guys like Curry, LeBron, and Harden, and those players aren’t all that much more expensive than Gobert on this slate.
Stocking Stuffer
It’s great to see DeMarcus Cousins back in the league doing his thing. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still more than capable of racking up fantasy points. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with the Bucks this season, and he’s played at least 27.2 minutes in three straight games. Cousins has racked up at least 33.5 DraftKings points in each of those contests, and he’s scored 41.0 or more in two of them.
One caveat is that the return of Giannis would likely eat into his workload. Giannis can definitely log some minutes at center, so the Bucks wouldn’t need to lean on him as much as they have of late. He still has the ability to pay off his price tag in that scenario, but his upside would be lower.
Grab Bag
Nicolas Claxton is another potential option for the shorthanded Nets. He hasn’t been quite as effective this season as he was last year, but he’s still averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 27.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, so he has the ability to return value at his current salary.
John Collins is technically a power forward, but he has eligibility at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s had two wildly different performances with Capela and Trae Young out of the lineup. He exploded for 51.5 DraftKings points over 41 minutes in his first outing, and he crashed to 26.75 DraftKings points over 30.7 minutes in his second. I would expect him to be somewhere in between those two outliers on Saturday – I know, bold prediction – and his $7,800 salary on DraftKings is reasonable.
