The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a three-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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Top Play
Connor McDavid ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
You know that a player is one of the best when their FantasyLabs floor projections are higher than most players’ ceilings. That’s the case that Connor McDavid finds himself in against the Seattle Kraken on Monday night.
McDavid has been the league’s leading scorer since the start of last season and averages 2.3 points per game this season. The reigning league MVP does it all, scoring at even strength and on the powerplay, with nine of his 16 points coming on the man advantage. The Oilers are in a good spot against the Seattle Kraken tonight, as the Kraken are playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. McDavid has a mind-numbing 71.5% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths and gets 67.4% of his starts in the offensive zone.
The Oilers will continue to rely on McDavid, making him worth every penny on DFS rosters.
Top Value
Josh Norris ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Ottawa Senators have scored nine goals over their past two games, and Josh Norris has been a big part of their success. He’ll look to continue that trend against the defensively inept Chicago Blackhawks on Monday.
Norris centers the Sens top line and top powerplay unit. He and his linemates, Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk, have combined for 17 points through eight games, with Norris recording three goals and one assist in his past two games. The former first-round selection has advanced metrics supporting continued output as his relative metrics are above 50.0%, and he gets 87.3% of his starts in the offensive zone. The Blackhawks five up an average of 30.1 scoring and 10.0 high-danger chances per game, and Norris will be able to exploit some of those opportunities.
The Senators are setting their top line up for success, and Norris’ DFS salary is a fraction of what the young forward can contribute against the Hawks.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Debrincat ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Blackhawks have a top line of their own that they rely on for meaningful contributions against the Sens. That line features Alex Debrincat, who leads the Hawks in goals and powerplay points.
The Hawks are extremely effective at creating offense with Debrincat on the ice, out-shooting their opponents 124-83 and out-chancing them in high-danger chances 45-29. Individually, Debrincat has 29 shots, 37 scoring chances, and 12 high-danger opportunities this season, and plays an average of 4:52 minutes on the powerplay per game. He’ll have a chance to expand on his impressive metrics against a weak Sens penalty kill, that has a 75.0% kill rate, ninth-worst in the NHL.
Debrincat’s salary has him bordering on a value play, but he remains near the top of FantasyLabs Median, Floor and Ceiling Projections.
Top Value
Drake Batherson ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Another Senators skater cracked our value list, and it’s the aforementioned Drake Batherson. As noted, Batherson skates on the Sens’ top line and features prominently on the powerplay.
Batherson’s metrics are even more remarkable than Norris’s. The young forward has the second-best expected goals-for rating on the team at 62.7%, thanks in part to out-chancing his opponents 41-20 in high-danger chances. The most telling sign for Batherson’s offensive upside is the frequency of his offensive zone starts. 91.1% of Batherson’s starts come in the offensive zone. With metrics like that, it’s not surprising that Batherson leads the Sens in scoring.
Pairing Batherson with his linemate Norris is an effective way to maximize scoring without overspending on salary.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
Four Oilers defensemen are tied for the team lead with four points, but based on our projections, it’s Darnell Nurse who presents as the top option for DFS rosters.
Three of Nurse’s four assists have come on the powerplay, and his 25 shots on goal are best among defensemen and second-best on the team. Nurse’s relative metrics are above average. The veteran defenseman has a 51.9% Corsi rating, 55.1% high-danger chances for percentage and 62.2% expected goals-for percentage. All of which becomes even more imposing when we consider that only 42.6% of his zone starts come in the attacking zone.
Nurse will skate with the Oilers best and has one of the highest fantasy ceilings on the Monday slate.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Mikhail Sergachev plays second fiddle to Victor Hedman on the Tampa Bay Lightning, creating a substantive dropoff in salary between the two defensemen. However, the difference in median projections isn’t as pronounced as the salaries indicate.
Sergachev ranks fourth on the Lighting with six points and is tied for the team lead in powerplay assists with two. The Lightning are setting Sergachev up for sustained output, as the d-man gets 68.6% of his starts in the offensive zone, including 1:48 minutes of powerplay time per game. That should help him increase his output against a Washington Capitals team that allows 10.8 high-danger chances per game.
The Lightning exhaust Sergachev across all strengths and he comes at discounted price relative to other options on defense.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Washinton Capitals
Andrei Vasilevskiy is well rested heading into tonight’s matchup against the Capitals, last playing four nights ago against the Arizona Coyotes. The former Vezina trophy winner is set up for another successful outing tonight on home ice.
The Russian netminder has stopped 96.0% of shots or more in three of his past five outings, helping the Bolts to wins in all three games. His early season save percentage is below career average thanks to a couple of subpar outings, but we should expect Vasilevskiy to progress over his next few starts thanks to the defensive structure in front of him. The Lightning have limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in seven straight games, allowing an average of 5.3 quality chances per game. Shots and scoring chances are also diminished, making Vasilevskiy’s job between the pipes a lot easier.
Our projections rate Vasilevskiy as the top option in net on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Matt Murray ($7,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Senators are playing on the first night of a back-to-back and have confirmed that Matt Murray will be starting in net against the Hawks.
Murray has been exceptional in two starts, stopping 93.6% of shots, including 100.0% of high-danger chances at even strength. The 27-year-old faces a Blackhawks team that ranks as one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL. Chicago is averaging 6.5 high-danger and 18.5 scoring chances at five-on-five over their past four games, resulting in only four goals. The Blackhawks have the third-worst shooting percentage in the NHL, and, considering their terrible production metrics, it’s unlikely to climb higher.
Murray is set up for success tonight against the Hawks, and has one of the most affordable salaries among goalies. He’s our value play in net tonight.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The betting market confidence is high on the Edmonton Oilers and we are highlighting them as our notable stack on tonight’s slate.
The Oilers have two of the best options down the middle, but we went with our top option, Connor McDavid, for our favorite stack against the Kraken. McDavid skates on a line with Jesse Puljujarvi, who is a low-cost option on the wing, with tremendous fantasy upside. Add to that Nurse, who is our top defensive option tonight, and goaltender Mikko Koskinen. Koskinen has been a stalwart for the Oilers since Mike Smith went down with an injury, and should continue to thrive against the Kraken tonight.
Considering the plethora of offensive weapons the Oilers have, there are a number of combinations to use for tonight’s stack. We like our chances with the above noted lineup, as Edmonton’s top line should shine.
