A couple weeks ago, DraftKings introduced a new scoring system for their MLB product called “Arcade Mode.” As you might expect given the name, the winning scores in these tournaments are quite high. Let’s dive into the new scoring system, compare and contrast it to the classic system, and then discuss strategy.
Scoring
Arcade Mode scoring is as follows (per DraftKings):
Notably there are new stats for batters: Plate appearances, sacrifice flies, grand slams, a HR/SB combo, and a bonus for a batter’s first hit of the game. There are no new stats for pitchers, but the weight given to each stat is different for batters and pitchers alike.
To get a sense of the impact of scoring differences, I measured each stat in both scoring systems as a percentage increase or decrease over the most basic stat for batters and pitchers: Singles and innings pitched. In the classic scoring system, a single is worth 3.0 points and a double is worth 5.0 points (a percentage increase of 66.7 percent). By measuring these percentage increases and decreases, we can get a good idea of what is being valued in Arcade Mode:
The biggest differences, of course, are with the stats that Arcade Mode has but Classic Mode does not. Specifically, a batter hitting a grand slam in Arcade Mode is a 500 percent increase over a single, which in turn is a 266.7 percent increase as compared to the worth of a grand slam in Classic Mode, which is just 10 points — or the value of a home run. (Note: I’m not including the inherent runs batted in and other stats that come with a home run; it’s just the value of a HR or grand slam.)
The largest negative differences are with doubles and triples. Thus, it really makes sense to pay up for batters who can hit homers as opposed to batters who ‘just’ get on base via walks, singles, doubles, and triples. Arcade Mode is about high scores, and DraftKings has scaled the scoring accordingly. Power dominates everything.
Thus, when you’re looking for Arcade Mode batters within our Player Models, it is probably wise to value Isolated Power (ISO) over Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) due to what the two metrics measure.
Here are the ISO and wOBA equations (per FanGraphs):
ISO is better at measuring a hitter’s raw power — it weights extra-base hits more — whereas wOBA is a better indicator of the value of a batter and includes stats like unintentional walks (uBB) to show on-base prowess. Since doubles, triples, and walks are devalued in Arcade Mode and home runs are so valued, using a stat like ISO that prioritizes power makes sense. Of course, you could always make up a new stat — or just change the weights in the above calculations — but we’ll stick with pre-made metrics for now.
For the purpose of illustration, if I eliminate the new stats from Arcade Mode — plate appearances, first hits, etc. — and re-color code the metrics, you can easily see how important it is to roster batters who score runs:
Salaries and Strategies
In the introductory piece on FanDuel’s Mixup contests, I found the correlation between the old and new salaries. It was high, and we see a similar relationship between the Classic and Arcade salaries on DraftKings:
The r-squared value of 0.96 suggests that — even though they have higher prices in Arcade Mode — players are basically still priced the same even though the scoring is different. As a result, players who score fantasy points by getting on base and hitting singles are drastically overpriced on Arcade Mode; players who hit homers are underpriced, at least relative to their Classic salaries.
We haven’t touched on pitchers yet, and I think the strategy is fairly straightforward: Take players who can accumulate strikeouts. The scoring system for Arcade Mode is not drastically different from Classic Mode; whereas stolen bases for batters, for example, are 83.3 percent more valuable in Arcade Mode than Classic, there’s no such dynamic for pitchers. The salaries are similar and the scoring mostly values the same metrics, so you can keep on doing the same research. The biggest difference is that you must roster only one pitcher, and since salaries are highly correlated it’s feasible to pay up for the studs like Chris Sale in today’s slate.
As for stacking, you can use no more than than two batters from the same team in Arcade Mode, which definitely hurts the value of stacking as a strategy. Stacking is popular because of the upside it gives your lineup — if a team goes off for 15 runs, then your chances of accumulating a lot of points are higher when you’ve stacked the team — but, honestly, stacking is also important because it limits your downside. The odds of hitting on every batter in a lineup are small; if you’re taking batters from different games with different pitchers and different dynamics, the odds get smaller. Stacking eliminates variables and correlates outcomes. All you need is one team to go off, and you will have five of your spots perform well. Stacking gives you upside, but perhaps more importantly it decreases downside.
Since you can stack only two batters in Arcade Mode, the value of stacking is lower. If a lineup goes off and you roster two of those batters, you’re in a fine spot, but you get less reward in that instance — you can’t roster five of those batters — and what if one of your two bats fails to perform within the stack? If one batter underperforms in a five-man stack, it’s less drastic than if the same batter disappoints in a two-man stack. It’s fine to stack in Arcade Mode, but don’t force it. Because splash plays such as home runs and stolen bases are so much more valuable than they are in Classic Mode, it probably makes sense to focus more on single batters with individual potential for high Plus/Minus values than on teams with high Vegas totals.
Arcade Mode provides big-number scoring that is definitely fun to play. In a nutshell, you should focus on home runs and scoring with batters, strikeouts with pitchers, and . . . that’s about it. Stacking isn’t very important in Arcade Mode, and while it’s still important to think about ownership and game theory these contests are mostly about rostering batters who can hit home runs. Have fun and good luck!
