The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($8,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The offensive tap is opening up for the Edmonton Oilers and that could mean big things for Connor McDavid against the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday night.
The reigning MVP’s output has taken a hit over his recent sample, but McDavid remains a dominant force on-ice. McDavid has a mind-numbing 555 scoring and 234 high-danger chances this season, translating to 15.4 and 6.5 per game, respectively. Individually, he’s responsible for 151 scoring and 66 quality opportunities, contributing to his 68.5% expected goals-for rating.
McDavid has two points over his previous four outings and has been held pointless in three of those games. Vancouver is expecting to start fourth-string goalie Michael DiPietro, which could be the advantage McDavid needs to break out of his slump.
Top Value
Elias Pettersson ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Nucks have a number of forwards they can turn to, to keep pace with the Oilers but none come at a bigger bargain than Elias Pettersson.
Pettersson has points in three of his past four games but still remains well off his expected pace. The Swedish forward has an expected goals-for of 47.3 while he’s been on the ice for just 39. That difference implies that Pettersson has a lot of room for growth, which could come against an Oilers team that has been ineffective at preventing goals recently.
No player on the Canucks gets more offensive zone starts than Pettersson, with 79.3% of his shifts starting in the attacking zone. Vancouver promoted Pettersson to the top line with JT Miller out, setting Pettey up for success against the Oil.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
The two points that Kyle Connor has recorded over the past three games are his fewest since he was held pointless for three games from December 14-19. The 25-year-old continues to pepper goalies and is primed for a breakout performance against the Florida Panthers.
Connor has put at least two shots on target in 13 straight games, with a noticeable jump over his recent outings. The Jets’ winger has attempted 30 shots over his previous five games, finding the back of the net just three times over that span. This recent cold spell has dropped Connor’s on-ice PDO a hair below 1.000, putting his actual goals-for below expected. That implies that as good as Connor has been, he should see increased output in the near future. We’re betting that starts tonight against the road-weary Panthers.
Top Value
Tim Stuetzle ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
You have to ride the waves a little more with younger teams, and the Ottawa Senators is a team worth getting behind right now.
Among their young stars is Tim Stuetzle who is putting together some strong performances. The young forward has recorded a point in four of his last five games, totaling 61.2 fantasy points over that stretch. As with the skaters noted above him, Stuetzle fits the progression candidate mold. His expected goals-for is above actual and his on-ice PDO is 0.949, ranking 25th on the Sens. We could just be seeing the tip of the iceberg with Stuetzle, and a matchup against one of the weakest teams in the league is an ideal spot to deploy Stuetzle on fantasy rosters.
Take note — Stuetzle is a center on DK slates, but his value is undeniable at either center, wing, or utility.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
All good things must come to an end, they say. That was the case last time out when Kris Letang‘s 10-game point streak came to an end. We like his chances to get back right on that horse against the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday night.
Even though he didn’t find his way onto the scoresheet, Letang remained a force for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The two-time All-Star put four shots on target, his 10th multi-shot game over his previous 11 games, also chipping in with a block, his 29th over his last 12 games.
Fantasy points are hard to find on both ends of the ice, but Letang has mastered the craft. He’s our top play on the blue line against an inferior Yotes squad.
Top Value
Quinn Hughes ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Quinn Hughes came out firing on all cylinders after the coaching change in Vancouver. The d-man recorded seven points through the first seven games under Bruce Boudreau but has cooled off considerably since then, recording just five points in the nine games since then.
The Canucks continue to set Hughes up for success, playing him on the team’s top powerplay unit, while giving him 65.6% of his zone starts in the opponent’s end. Hughes is showing green sprouts for increased output, recording four points over his past four games while putting nine shots on target over his last three.
Offense should be at the forefront of the Canucks game, and Hughes projects as an elite option with a moderately priced salary on both slates. That value isn’t worth passing up.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Andersen ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Carolina Hurricanes host the Vegas Golden Knights on the second night of a back-to-back, amid a downturn in the Knights’ offensive metrics. That could mean big things for Frederik Andersen and the Hurricanes.
The Golden Knights have attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their past five and 20 or fewer scoring chances in two of four games. However, those decreased metrics haven’t had a profound impact on output, as the Knights have still manged three or more goals in three of their past five.
In comes Andersen, who has stopped 96.8% of shots or more in two of his past three starts, ready to facilitate the Knights’ regression. The Canes’ goaltender is one of the best options available tonight.
Braden Holtby ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Dallas Stars played their analytics cards right by saving Braden Holtby for the second night of their back-to-back. Holtby will be tasked with limiting a New Jersey Devils attack coming off a disappointing performance.
The Devils managed just 20 scoring and seven high-danger chances last time out against the Kings, and that could be a sign of things to come for them. New Jersey had gone above normal range in high-danger chances in five straight games, averaging 13.4 quality opportunities, which was well above their average heading into that span of 9.5. Fewer chances should lead to fewer goals, benefiting Holtby and the Stars.
We’re anticipating progression from Holtby after a string of below-average performances. That should start tonight against a Devils squad headed towards a correction phase.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are two teams that feature prominently in our lineup builder on tonight’s docket, with several combinations rating highly. We’ve elected to go with the Pittsburgh Penguins stack against the Arizona Coyotes.
Previously, we noted the merits of including Kris Letang in DFS lineups. He remains the preferred option on the backend and the blueliner we’ve included in today’s stack. He’s joined by linemates and powerplay specialists Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. Crosby is coming off a pointless outing but still has seven points over his past five games. Similarly, Guentzel was held off the scoresheet against the Winnipeg Jets but has recorded five points over the five-game sample. Tristan Jarry remains an undervalued goaltender, collecting the second-most wins and putting up the third-best save percentage among qualified goaltenders. As the projected starter, he’s a natural inclusion in any Pens’ stack.
Betting market confidence is high on the Penguins as they enter tonight’s contest in the -500 range. That confidence is also reflected in our projections.
