The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Leafs will play Tampa Bay tonight after beating them in a close 2-1 game earlier this year. Since then, Auston Matthews has turned on the steam and now has 10 goals in his last 10 games, including seven in his last four. Matthews ranks behind the two Oiler centers in terms of Ceiling Projections today, but his short-term form is off the charts. He leads the slate in shots on goal per game in long-term form and ranks in the top 1% at his position in shots on goal + blocked shots over the last month as well, via the FantasyLabs ProTrends Tool.
Neither Toronto nor the Oilers have great matchups today, but the Leafs’ top lines have been near impossible to stop of late, while the Oilers seem mired in a bit of short-term regression. I’d continue to ride those trends here, especially with Tampa being near the end of a long road trip and potentially having fatigue as a factor today.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The St. Louis Blues have been short-handed in several of their recent games, meaning every available healthy forward has had to pick up the slack. Ryan O’Reilly already plays big minutes for the Blues, regardless of the situation, but he’s been well over 21 minutes a game of late as they essentially have played with three lines.
The Blues are likely to be short-handed again, so we can take a little bit of NBA DFS advice and just play the guy who will be seeing an increase in minutes here. O’Reilly also rates out as a strong play in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model, though where he sits sixth in Ceiling Projection on both sites and has averaged over 3.0 shots per game over his last 10 starts. The Red Wings and their seventh-worst penalty-kill is a great matchup for him too.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($8,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) @ Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have now lost three straight and allowed 13 goals in their last three games, so they could finally be feeling the effects of not having a true number one goalie. Edmonton also gives up the fourth-most shots on net per game, making this a good matchup for a high-volume shooter like David Pastrnak.
Pastrnak is more expensive than any other winger on the slate, but he also sits at the top of the Ceiling Projections today on FantasyLabs and is still affordable at under $9,000 on both sites. The thing I like about Pastrnak here is that while his shot rate remains elite in 2021 (5.33 per game in long-term form leads the slate), his shooting percentage this year remains about 5% below his career average. Positive goal regression seems likely to strike soon and, against a team that is struggling on defense and in net like the Oilers, a multiple-goal game is not out of the question.
Top Value
Pavel Buchnevich ($4,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
Pavel Buchnevich has quietly been one of the best signings of the year. The former Ranger is now up to 20 points on the season and has scored 11 points and averaged 3.5 shots on goal over his last 10 games. The Blues are mega-shorthanded once again today but have a great matchup against Detroit, which makes their exceedingly cheap skill players all that more valuable.
Buchnevich is ranked fifth in Player Ratings for play on DraftKings, where he’s salaried at well below $5,000, which is crazy for a player who has seen over 21 minutes a game and been productive on the first line for St. Louis in his last three starts. He’s slightly harder to fit on FanDuel today but will certainly draw lessor ownership there too. You shouldn’t shy away form the Blues’ top line at all as they’ll be playing extra minutes again.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Boston Bruins
Darnell Nurse returned for the Oilers recently, and he’s been productive right from the get-go for the Oilers, who desperately need him to soak up big minutes each night given the state of their blueline. Nurse has played over 26 minutes in his first two games since returning and has taken 12 shots on goal in that span as well. The added aggressiveness paid off with his first goal of the season two games ago, and he’s likely set for more positive regression in that area soon after potting 16 last year.
Nurse rates out first in Player Ratings on FanDuel today but is also fourth in that category on DraftKings, where he’s a slightly worse bargain. With the Bruins having a potent first line, expect him to potentially approach 30 minutes of ice-time here. He leads all defensemen in long-term CorsiFor Rating and in blocked shots + shots on goal (4.68 per game), yet has an affordable price tag here.
Top Value
Colton Parayko ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
As I’ve mentioned multiple times already, the theme of the night is to target the Blues top players here as they not only have a great matchup but will all almost certainly be playing big minutes simply out of necessity. Colton Parayko has played over 23 minutes now in each of his last four games and is averaging a stout 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goals over his last 10 games.
Despite not having a huge special teams role with the man advantage, Parayko is still averaging 0.5 points per game and ranks out in the top 10 in Player Ratings on FanDuel, where he’s the slightly better bargain today. He gives you elite tertiary production at a bargain price and makes for one of the top values on the slate, regardless of position.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Mikko Koskinen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Boston Bruins
The Oilers have a tough matchup against the Bruins, who did play last night in Vancouver (and lost in a shootout). The Oilers have also lost three in a row but still, come in as -123 favorites on the moneyline. Regardless of their recent form, that puts their goalie in a decent enough spot for the win that we should be interested here.
Mikko Koskinen also ranks out surprisingly well in this spot in the Projected Points Model, where he’s top five in Player Ratings and is predicted for over 35 shots faced today, heady numbers considering he’s also a favorite. The high price tag and specter of the Bruins’ top line likely keeps ownership down here, too, making Koskinen an elite GPP target if he starts.
Top Value
Jacob Markstrom ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
We’ll stick in Alberta for our value goaltender as well and target the Flames Jacob Markstrom, who is a -121 favorite, as of writing, against the Hurricanes today. Markstrom actually ranks out in the top-five in Player Ratings on both sites, despite the tough matchup, and is also predicted for over 30 shots faced today as well.
The Hurricanes aren’t a team you want to target often with your goaltender, but Markstrom has been one of the best goaltenders in the league this year and certainly looks underpriced given that he’s a home favorite as well. This is also a good spot for big fields as many will likely avoid using him out of respect to the Hurricanes. Take advantage of the solid value on offer here.
Notable Stack
Jets L1 – Mark Scheifele – Kyle Connor – Blake Wheeler
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Jets’ top line has been playing well of late and finally broken out of a decent slump. Mark Schiefele actually rates out in the top-five in Ceiling Projections today for DraftKings and is still ultra-affordable, especially when paired with Blake Wheeler, who continues to rack up assists and can be had for under $5,000 on DraftKings.
This line rates out tops in the Projected Points Model today in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool, and has a matchup with a Seattle squad who remains one of the worst defensive teams in hockey — and have allowed 3.6 goals per game (third-worst in the league). Keep stacking with Winnipeg with confidence today.
