Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our new Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Philip Rivers ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
- Keenan Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Rivers has been terrible over the past four weeks with a 60.2 percent completion rate and 1.25 touchdowns per game, but he does own the fifth-highest ceiling at the position and at least the Chargers are playing to win. The Raiders defense has been surprisingly stout over the past four games as well, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 12.28 points per game (PPG) with a -4.95 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 11.78 PPG with a -4.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, two of the quarterbacks they faced were Geno Smith and Nick Foles, so perhaps recency bias shouldn’t deter us from attacking a defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. The Chargers are currently 7.5-point home favorites. In 40 home games in Rivers’ career where he was favored by a TD or more, he is 36-4 SU and 25-15 ATS in those games.
The matchup is especially favorable for Allen, as detailed by our own Ian Hartitz in this week’s WR Breakdown. These are how notable slot receivers have performed against Oakland:
- Sterling Shepard: 6 tgts, 3-56-0
- Danny Amendola: 9 tgts, 8-66-1
- Jarvis Landry: 7 tgts, 6-32-1
- Jeremy Maclin: 8 tgts, 6-43-0
- Jamison Crowder: 6 tgts, 6-52-0
Allen has averaged 20.4 DraftKings PPG with a +6.7 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating as a home favorite since 2014 (per our Trends tool).
He’s holding down a 26.32 percent of the Chargers target market share the past four weeks, he hasn’t been targeted less than eight times in a game since Week 10. Over that span, he has averaged a massive 11.57 targets per game. Despite a -6.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past two games, he could still be chalky: We have him projected in the neighborhood of 21 to 25 percent this week. Pairing Allen with Rivers could be more unique, and we currently have this stack projected as the highest scoring quarterback and wide receiver combo on DraftKings.
Running Back + D/ST
- Dion Lewis ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- New England Patriots ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Per my Rushing Expectation Methodology, Lewis is a talented runner averaging a 75th percentile Expectation Score rushing — 65th as a receiver — over the past two seasons. Accurately predicting volume for this backfield has been much harder than identifying their embarrassment of riches from a talent perspective.
The good news is Lewis is shaping up to work as the Patriots’ no-questions-asked RB1 Sunday with Rex Burkhead (knee, questionable), Mike Gillislee (knee, questionable), and James White (ankle, questionable) banged up. The Jets are stronger against the run than the pass, but they have allowed the eighth-most rushing attempts this season and rank 27th in defending running backs in the passing game.
Hump wrote about the Patriots D/ST in this week’s Defense Breakdown, where he noted that the Patriots have now averaged 10.75 PPG with a +4.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +4.00 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a perfect Consistency Rating in their last four home games this season. The Patriots are also a slate-high 16.5-point favorite, so Bryce Petty will likely be forced into 30+ pass attempts behind a Jets offensive line that is 28th in adjusted sack rate facing a Patriots team that is 12th in the same category.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Cam Newton ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Christian McCaffrey ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
- Devin Funchess ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
The 45.0-point Over/Under is second-highest on the slate. Even though some coaches may decide to rest their starters, both the Panthers and Falcons have a ton left to play for in Week 17.
Newton leads the quarterback position per game in carries (8.53), red zone carries (1.7), rushing yards (46.2), and total rushing touchdowns (6). The matchup also sets up well for Newton to do a ton of damage on the ground, as Atlanta has allowed the third most rushing yards and fourth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Last week — at a chalky 21.3 percent ownership in large guaranteed prize pools — McCaffrey posted less than eight DraftKings points for the first time all season. It may be wise to double down on Newton-McCaffrey and their 0.32 correlation coefficient this week as the Falcons have allowed the most receptions to running backs in the NFL this year.
With Greg Olsen soaking up 18 targets over the past two weeks, Funchess has seen his target share dip to 14.0 percent, but it’s possible that his lingering shoulder injury could also have been to blame. He has seen at least one red zone target in each of his last six games and could offer both salary relief and further diversification from other CAR-ATL game stacks.
Over the last four weeks, Julio is top-six at the position in target share (29.0 percent), market share of air yards (43.0 percent), and total air yards (504) and he has owned the Panthers since they lost No. 1 corner Josh Norman. Since the start of the 2016-17 season, he’s averaged 27.27 DraftKings PPG with a massive +8.97 Plus/Minus and 66.7 percent Consistency rating. His matchup against James Bradberry is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 WR/CB advantage of Week 17.
Photo via Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
