The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
With the Lightning and Penguins each implied to score 3.6 or more goals, tonight’s high-end options have loads of potential.
Center
- Sidney Crosby vs. NY Islanders: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $9,200
- Steven Stamkos vs. Colorado: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,400
- Tyler Seguin @ St. Louis: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,400
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov vs. Colorado: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,800
- Blake Wheeler @ Florida: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,700
- Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Dallas: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $8,000
- Phil Kessel vs. NY Islanders: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $8,000
Defense
- Brent Burns vs. Carolina: DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $7,000
- Victor Hedman vs. Colorado: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $5,600
- Kris Letang vs. NY Islanders: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $6,600
The Lightning own the slate’s second-highest matchup rating against an Avalanche team that has allowed the seventh-most power play opportunities. While Stamkos and Kucherov have a dazzling 0.71 correlation coefficient in our Models, that’s trending in the other direction now that they no longer skate together at even strength. Over the past month, both have solid peripheral stats (in the 93rd percentile in shots), but when you zoom in on the past eight games, they have combined for only three goals. Because of their prowess on the power play, the Lightning duo still have a high ceiling.
Pittsburgh’s 3.6 implied total trails only Tampa Bay (3.7) today, and the Penguins have won four of their past five games, but recency bias could keep Crosby’s ownership lower than it should be. He may have had a down night on the scoresheet Tuesday against the Rangers, but don’t overlook his six shots on goal. Crosby has been is on an absolute tear with 12 points (six goals and six assists) over his past six games.
We’ve discussed Burns – and his inevitable positive regression – basically every week on NHL Inside the Lab, and in general, paying up for defensemen makes a lot of sense. Unsurprisingly, Burns leads the way, placing in the 97th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month. Letang stands out as a fine way to get exposure to the Penguins, but his correlation coefficient with Kessel (0.14), Crosby (0.11), Hornqvist (-0.03), and Malkin (-0.04) on the first power play unit isn’t ideal considering his high price tag.
Values
Tyler Johnson (DraftKings – $4,200, FanDuel – $4,500): If you can’t spend big for the Stamkos-Kucherov stack today, Johnson should offer solid correlation with a nice peripheral stat floor. He has registered 13 shots + blocks, two goals, and an assist over his past three games. His $4,200 price tag on DraftKings is still egregiously low given that he’s slated to continue skating on the Lightning’s top line with Stamkos and Namestnikov today.
Olli Maatta (DraftKings – $3,700, FanDuel – $4,200): Maatta could offer a leverage opportunity off the Pittsburgh PP1, but also a ton of safety in regards to peripheral stats. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, trailing only Alex Goligoski of all skaters today priced at $4,200 or below on either site.
One-Timers
Patrice Bergeron (DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,000): Bergeron has the peripheral stats (97th percentile in shots) and upside (trailing only Crosby in Corsi-For over the past month) to break things wide open. It could be wise to roster Bergeron over Crosby and Stamkos, given the massive discount. The Bruins own the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate.
Patric Hornqvist (DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $6,300): Wingers typically block far fewer shots than defensemen and centermen. That’s part of what makes players like Hornqvist (84th percentile among skaters in blocks over the past month) an incredibly valuable way to gain exposure to Pittsburgh. He leads all power play forwards today with 1.46 blocks per game over the past month and has a 91 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
The Lightning and Penguins will likely be insanely popular with ownership tending to closely mirror Vegas lines, and if you haven’t gathered this already, both top power-play units are firmly in play.
One of our highest-rated (non-Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh) DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the San Jose Sharks:
The Sharks could be a solid contrarian option today – well outside the top tier of implied totals – but they own the fourth-highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate against a Hurricanes team with the seventh-worst penalty-kill percentage. As one of the game’s best playmakers, Thornton rarely shoots (57th percentile in shots over the past month), but he is priced low enough on DraftKings where his 0.23 correlation to Burns and 88th percentile ranking in power-play points are intriguing for tournaments.
There’s a ton of value in adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to get a win. The Sharks own the fifth-highest Corsi-Against over the past month and Carolina leads the league in shots per game (35.8).
Note: Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm which goaltender is starting for San Jose.
The formerly mentioned Bergeron rates highly on both sites, but it’s way easier to jam him in with his expensive linemates on FanDuel:
Pastrnak’s shots per game are down from 3.35 over the past year to 2.75 over the past month, but positive regression and playing against the Coyotes usually have the same address. They’ve allowed the highest Corsi-Against over the past month and the most goals in the NHL this year.
We’ve already discussed the lack of correlation between Letang and the Pittsburgh forwards. The correlation coefficient between Krug is more favorable with Marchand (0.28), Pastrnak (0.26), and Bergeron (0.20) at a much cheaper price tag.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, and we have some massive favorites on today’s slate:
- Tampa Bay -225 vs. Colorado
- Boston -205 vs. Arizona
- Los Angeles -201 vs. Ottawa
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top-three options, all of whom have already been confirmed or are expected as starters:
- Jaroslav Halak, NY Islanders @ Pittsburgh (DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,300): 33.5 saves
- James Reimer, Florida vs. Winnipeg (DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,300): 32.41 saves
- Eric Comrie, Winnipeg @ Florida (DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $7,100): 31.79 saves
There are a multitude of cheap options today to target save prediction, but if looking to roster one of the largest moneyline favorites it gets expensive quickly. None of the large favorites also garner a top save prediction. Halak could offer immense leverage if Pittsburgh underperforms. Goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs, but it’s tough to see him as anything more than a contrarian tournament option even with the highest save prediction on the slate.
At just $7,000 on DraftKings, Reimer has to be in consideration with the second-highest save prediction, even as a slight -107 favorite. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-highest Corsi-Against over the past month. That said, it never feels great to roster a goalie against the high-flying Jets. Their 3.5 goals per game over the past month trails only the Islanders on today’s slate.
With a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, Peter Budaj makes a ton of sense for cash games as a massive favorite against Colorado. Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-highest Corsi-For over the past month – very respectable – but historically goaltenders at home with similar moneyline odds and salaries have provided a +1.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 57.4 percent Consistency Rating.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
