Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There is an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Giovani Bernargain Rating
With DraftKings’ new pricing this season, it’s rare we get a starting running back for $3,100. Joe Mixon (concussion) is unlikely to suit up, leaving Giovani Bernard as the lead back for the Bengals. He’s sitting with a 93 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings with an absurd 10.07 Projected Plus/Minus.
I know we don’t need a trend to know Bernard is an excellent play, but just for fun: using Trends tool I found that running backs with a Projected Plus/Minus of at least 8.0 on DraftKings have averaged 17.71 DraftKings points with a 78.7 percent Consistency Rating. It’s a neutral matchup as the Bears rank 12th in rush DVOA, but the Bengals are 6.5-point home favorites and Bernard should easily be in line for 15-20-plus touches.
Bernard is sitting atop the Adam Levitan Player Model on DraftKings, but I also think he is viable on FanDuel for $5,100 where he leads running backs with a 6.87 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll be very chalky (his Projected Ownership is more than 30 percent). Bernard is at least a block play, and the first person I am plugging into my lineup.
Tight End Floors
The second position I am plugging into my single lineup is the tight end spot because that is going to dictate the rest of my roster. I’ll either be paying all the way up for Travis Kelce or all the way down to Stephen Anderson.
Kelce is one of two tight ends on FanDuel to have a Projected Floor of at least 5.0 along with a receiving yards projection of more than 60 yards. Historically, tight ends who fit in this criteria have averaged 12.4 FanDuel points with a 60.6 percent Consistency Rating, which is high for such a volatile position. Kelce leads the Chiefs with 8.3 targets per game, 30 percent of their air yards, and 30.5 percent red zone target share over the past six weeks. He has a dream matchup against a Raiders “defense” that ranks 27th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against tight ends and is allowing opposing offenses to score on a league-high 41.3 percent of their drives.
Anderson doesn’t have Kelce’s floor, but he leads tight ends on DraftKings with a 3.28 Projected Plus/Minus and a 1.8 Pts/Sal. Historically, tight ends with similar data have averaged 10.77 DraftKings points with a 3.54 Plus/Minus and a 60.7 percent Consistency Rating. Again, we’re locking in a solid Consistency Rating at a volatile position. Anderson saw 12 targets last week and turned in a 5-79-1 line. There is a chance Will Fuller (ribs) suits up, which may be minorly concerning, but since Week 9, tight ends have combined for 27 percent of the Texans’ target share. Anderson has an opportunity to soak up the large majority of those now that C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) is on IR.
My current thought process involves rostering Anderson on DraftKings for $3,200 and Kelce on FanDuel, where the Chiefs TE sports a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Anderson’s cheap tag on DraftKings will allow you to roster some of the high-priced receivers or running backs you’re looking to target.
Josh GOATen
Josh Gordon is still underpriced at $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel. Much like Bernard, Gordon carries a Projected Ownership of over 30 percent on both sites. And again, it’s probably warranted when Gordon checks so many boxes that we like to target.
Gordon is priced as the WR21 on DraftKings, but he projects very well in our models because of his matchup and the number of targets he should get. He returned to action last week for the first time in three years and was targeted a team-high 11 times and saw 48 percent of the Browns’ air yards. The Packers have allowed opposing receivers to exceed salary-based expectations by 3.2 points on DraftKings, which is a slate-high. While Gordon is priced as a WR2, he has WR1 upside. He boasts a Floor Projection of 9.0 which is tied for the second-best mark with DeAndre Hopkins and a position-best 3.19 Projected Plus/Minus. Historically, players with data similar to Gordon have averaged 15.28 DraftKings points with a 3.08 Plus/Minus and 57.9 percent Consistency Rating.
Currently, Cleveland (rocks!) is expected to have 17-plus MPH winds on Sunday with temps in the 30s. By using our Trends tool, you can see that kind of weather can have a negative impact on receivers. So, that will be something to monitor come Sunday morning. With wind concerns, I prefer to use the Vegas Dashboard to see if Vegas believes the wind will negatively a game’s scoring.
Closing Thoughts
Bernard, Gordon, and Kelce/Anderson will make the core of my single lineup teams. Bernard and Gordon will come very highly owned, which I don’t have a problem with. At some point, the term “chalk” picked up a negative connotation in the DFS industry and I’m not sure why. Even if Bernard tanks, you’re paying $3,100 and $5,100 for a running back seeing 15-plus touches. Gordon has week-winning upside and is probably $1,000 too cheap on both sites. Starting your lineups with these underpriced players will allow you to construct your lineups any way you see fit — whether you want to roster Hopkins and Keenan Allen or get up to Todd Gurley. You could even take a middle-of-the-road approach if you feel more confident about those builds. Mess around with an abundance of combinations, see what feels right. Bernard’s dirt-low price allows you to attack rosters in a multitude of ways.
Update: I previously stated Gordon will be a core player for me, but current roster construction on FanDuel (possible DraftKings) has led me away from locking in Gordon.
