I wrote a fancy introduction in Part 1 of the series asking this question: “Has Fading Thursday Football Become a Donkey Move?”
Here’s an abbreviated version of that intro: Because so many really smart people are suggesting or previously have suggested fading the Thursday game, could using players from that game this season actually be the contrarian move? And, if so, are there any specific players who have demonstrated consistent value?
In the first two Parts of this series, I utilized our Plus/Minus metric and our wicked awesome 2016 NFL DFS Tools to explore what types of players have performed well on Thursdays. In this article, I will look at how pass catchers (both wide receivers and tight ends) with comparable opportunities perform on Thursdays compared to those with the same opportunities in traditional Sunday and Monday games.
This data will inform your decisions for Thursday contests as you determine whether fading players on Thursday is a viable move for performance reasons.
Wide Receivers and Targets
Elite ($7,600 and Higher)
The chart below details how wide receivers priced at $7,600 and higher on DraftKings have performed when averaging at least six targets per game.
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Elite WR | 6 | 17.56 | -0.36 | 50.00% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Elite WR | 6 | 20.6 | 2.32 | 50.20% | 15.40% |
The data is pretty clear: Paying up for wide receivers playing on Thursday is probably a donkey move, as ownership of Thursday players tends to be elevated anyway.
Traditional wide receivers in this price range have not only scored more points per game on average, but they have also done so while maintaining a healthy +2.32 Plus/Minus. Thursday ownership is not available, but the traditional wide receivers in this price range have registered an average ownership of 15.4 percent in large tournaments on DK. If we’re to assume that Thursday ownership is inflated, there is no evidence indicating that playing the elite-priced wide receivers in these games is a good idea.
Mid-Priced ($5,000 – $7,500)
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Mid-Price WR | 5 | 14.22 | 0.88 | 41.40% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Mid-Price WR | 5 | 14.65 | 1.71 | 50.50% | 8.30% |
While the average points per game is nearly equal for receivers in this price range, those playing on the traditional slate have provided a bigger bang for your buck. The Sunday and Monday receivers hold nearly a full point (+0.83) Plus/Minus advantage over their Thursday-playing compadres. They have also performed with more Consistency. Given that the traditional wide receivers check in with an average ownership of just 8.30 percent, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to favor the Thursday wide receivers in this price range.
Value ($3,000 – $4,900)
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Value WR | 4 | 7.8 | 0.33 | 46.10% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Value WR | 4 | 8.93 | 1.47 | 46.50% | 3.00% |
The traditional value wide receivers have out-performed Thursday receivers in both average points per game and Plus/Minus. They have more than a full point advantage in both areas and minimal ownership. I see no compelling reason to play a value receiver on Thursday.
Wide Receivers and Red-Zone Opportunities
Elite ($7,600 and Higher)
The chart below details how wide receivers priced at $7,600 and higher on DraftKings averaging at least 1.10 red-zone opportunities per game have performed on Thursdays compared to Mondays and Sundays.
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Elite WR | 1.1 | 18.55 | 0.53 | 53.80% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Elite WR | 1.1 | 18.35 | 2.37 | 50.60% | 16.20% |
Elite receivers averaging at least 1.10 red-zone opportunities per game have performed similarly in average points per game on Thursdays and Sundays and Mondays. The receivers playing on Thursdays have been slightly more consistent, but the traditional receivers have a +1.84 advantage in Plus/Minus.
Mid-Priced ($5,000 – $7,500)
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Mid-Price WR | 0.8 | 16.18 | 2.58 | 45.50% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Mid-Price WR | 0.8 | 13.15 | 1.51 | 50.10% | 8.40% |
This is the first time we’ve seen a noticeable advantage for Thursday receivers. They average more points per game while also producing a Plus/Minus that is +1.07 points higher than that of the traditional mid-priced receivers. They are, however, not nearly as consistent.
Value ($3,000 – $4,900)
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Value WR | 0.5 | 7.70 | 0.39 | 46.50% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Value WR | 0.5 | 8.77 | 1.49 | 46.70% | 2.70% |
Value receivers playing in the traditional slate have averaged 2.70 percent ownership in large tournaments while outproducing their Thursday counterparts in both points and Plus/Minus. Based on this evidence, there is no reason to get cute with a value receiver on Thursdays.
Tight Ends and Targets
Elite ($6,000 and Higher)
The chart below details how tight ends priced at $6,000 and higher on DraftKings have performed when averaging at least six targets per game.
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Elite TE | 6 | 18.3 | 5.68 | 66.70% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Elite TE | 6 | 13.98 | 0.94 | 53.40% | 13.00% |
Elite tight ends have traditionally been great on Thursdays. They’ve scored 4.32 more points per game compared to their traditional counterparts, while crushing a +5.68 Plus/Minus. They’ve also produced on a more consistent basis, albeit on a smaller sample size. With traditional tight ends owned at a 13 percent clip across large tournaments on DK, paying up for a Thursday tight end actually might not be a bad idea — just depending on what ownership looks for Thursday players.
Mid-Priced ($4,500 – $5,900)
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Mid-Price TE | 5 | 11.68 | 2.44 | 46.20% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Mid-Price TE | 5 | 12.53 | 3.21 | 59.40% | 8.10% |
Traditional tight ends have the advantage in this price range. They average more points per game, maintain a higher Plus/Minus, and have been considerably more consistent.
Value ($2,500 – $4,400)
| Day of Week | Position | Targets | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Value TE | 4 | 8.28 | 2.27 | 55.60% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Value TE | 4 | 8.28 | 2.34 | 55.80% | 3.90% |
Frankly, it’s weird how incredibly consistent value tight ends have been no matter what day the game is being played. No actionable advantage to be found here. Move along.
Tight Ends and Red-Zone Opportunities
Elite ($6,000 and Higher)
The chart below details how tight ends priced at $6,000 and higher on DraftKings averaging at least 1.10 Red Zone Opportunities per game have performed on Thursdays compared to Mondays and Sundays.
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Elite TE | 1.1 | 16.3 | 3.82 | 57.00% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Elite TE | 1.1 | 14.1 | 1.07 | 52.80% | 13.00% |
Since 2014, elite tight ends playing on Thursday have historically been more productive, efficient, and consistent compared to their traditional peers.
Since traditional elite tight ends are owned at an average of 13 percent across large tournaments on DK, this could be a spot to monitor. The Thursday tight end has offered an increase of 2.20 points per game coupled with a +2.75 Plus/Minus advantage when given the same opportunity in the red zone.
Mid-Priced ($4,500 – $5,900)
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Mid-Price TE | 0.8 | 12.62 | 3.28 | 54.50% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Mid-Price TE | 0.8 | 12.79 | 3.43 | 59.70% | 7.80% |
The results are very similar here. The traditional tight ends do have a slight advantage in both points per game and Plus/Minus. They have also been more consistent over a larger sample. Since we know traditional tight ends have historically been owned at 7.8 percent in large tournaments, there’s seemingly no reason to pivot to a Thursday tight end in this price range.
Value ($2,500 – $4,400)
| Day of Week | Position | RZ Opp/Game | Avg. Points | Plus/Minus | Consistency | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Value TE | 0.5 | 6.77 | 1.23 | 43.60% | unavailable |
| Sun. & Mon. | Value TE | 0.5 | 6.9 | 3.43 | 47.00% | 3.00% |
Based on the above data, there is no reason to roll the dice on a value tight end playing on Thursday.
Enough of the Freaking Charts
That’s a lot of numbers and charts, so what can we take away from this? Here’s what I found to be potentially useful:
• Traditional wide receivers (playing on Sunday and Monday) typically perform better than their Thursday counterparts in points per game, Plus/Minus, and Consistency. The evidence did not present any compelling reason to risk playing a potentially higher-owned receiver on Thursday.
• The exception to this rule would be for mid-priced receivers who see at least 0.8 Red Zone Opportunities per game. While these players haven’t been as consistent, they have provided an additional 3.13 DK points per game while maintaining a +1.07 Plus/Minus advantage.
• Elite wide receivers on Thursday have fantasitlcally underperformed. Fading them and saving your money for traditional wide receivers looks like the more profitable move.
• Paying up for expensive tight ends playing on Thursday could be a unique strategy to experiment with this season. Especially if that tight end is Rob Gronkowski.
