I wrote a fancy introduction in Part 1 of the series asking this question: “Has Fading Thursday Football Become a Donkey Move?”
Here’s an abbreviated version of that intro: Because so many really smart people are suggesting or previously have suggested fading the Thursday game, could using players from that game this season actually be the contrarian move? And, if so, are there any specific players who have demonstrated consistent value?
Just to be clear upfront. This particular piece is more about where to find value with Thursday running backs and less about how they compare to other running backs at every data point. We can see via basic baselines how the cohorts tend to do. In general, the Thursday guys provide value — but the big point of this article is this: We can find Thursday RBs who do well. They shouldn’t automatically be faded out of hand.
I’m wicked (that’s New Englandese for “very,” “really,” or “hella”) excited about this installment of the series because it’s my first opportunity to present Trends and Plus/Minus metrics from our freshly minted, incredibly powerful, and wicked awesome 2016 NFL DFS Tools. That’s elite use of the Oxford comma right there. I aim to please.
Because it will suck for both you and me if I type “on DraftKings” after every trend I present, please know that all of the following trends are specific to DraftKings.
Getting Off On the Right Foot
Since 2014, running backs who have played on either Sunday or Monday have yielded a Plus/Minus of -0.04 with 36.2 percent Consistency. On the other hand, the universally faded Thursday RB has provided a +0.28 Plus/Minus with 39.7 percent Consistency.
Clearly the Thursday sample is much smaller, but seeing the Thursday RB outproduce the standard Sunday/Monday RB (the “Traditional RB”) was something I didn’t expect. Are you wondering if the Monday RB drags down the Sunday RB? It’s actually the opposite. The Monday RB’s +0.32 Plus/Minus helps to improve the Sunday RB‘s -0.06 Plus/Minus. Perhaps we should be fading Sundays?
Let’s start off our study by splitting running backs into three distinct salary tiers: Value, Mid-Priced, and Elite.
One thing to keep in mind: On 32 occasions in 2014, running backs were priced at or above $8,600 on DraftKings. However, in 2015 only four times was a running back priced at $8,400 or higher: Le’Veon Bell three times and Devonta Freeman once. Keeping that in mind we’ll set the range of Elite RBs at $7,000 and higher.
Value RBs ($3,000 – $4,900)
The traditional value RB has accounted for a -0.33 Plus/Minus with 33.0 percent Consistency. Thanks to our new NFL tools, we can also see that their average ownership in large tournaments has been 2.4 percent.
The Thursday value RB has been equally consistent, but not as productive in terms of Plus/Minus.
Playing at home and on the road, playing in division or non-division games, and being a Vegas favorite compared to a Vegas dog has had essentially no effect on the Thursday value RB traditionally.
Handing him the rock, however, has had a substantial effect on production. The Thursday value RB who has averaged more than 10 carries per game has delivered a +3.33 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency. That’s an enormous +3.85 Plus/Minus increase over the baseline.
Choosing Thursday value RBs who have been targeted at least two times per game has also been a profitable business. These players generally produce a +2.38 Plus/Minus with 63.0 percent Consistency. Find one of these backs who’s meeting both the carries and targets requirements and you’ll be loving life to the tune of a +5.08 Plus/Minus with excellent 83.3 percent Consistency.
Getting some red-zone opportunities doesn’t hurt either. The Thursday value RB who has received at least one red zone opportunity per game traditionally generates a +1.11 Plus/Minus with 51.4 percent Consistency.
Finally, market share has been a huge metric for value RBs playing on Thursdays. Those receiving more than a 40 percent share of the team’s annual rushing yards have delivered a +2.76 Plus/Minus, while 15 of 25 have met or exceeded their salary-based expectations. Those getting at least a 33 percent share of the team’s snaps have averaged a +1.79 Plus/Minus with 58.3 percent Consistency.
Mid-Priced RBs ($5,000 – $6,900)
The traditional mid-priced RB has been much more productive in general terms than his value counterpart, accumulating a +1.50 Plus/Minus with 49.5 percent Consistency. He has also been owned at a much higher rate, averaging 9.8 percent ownership in large tournaments.
The equally-priced RB playing on Thursday has been even better and more consistent: 21 of 36 have met or exceeded salary-based expectations. And they have absolutely crushed it playing at home, to the tune of a +4.76 Plus/Minus with 73.3 percent Consistency. On the road, the Plus/Minus plummets to -0.39 and the Consistency drops to 47.6 percent.
In fact, mid-priced Thursday RBs tear it up in a lot of situations. Check these out:
• Their Plus/Minus increases to +2.37 and Consistency climbs to 66.7 percent in division games.
• Those averaging more than one opportunity inside the 10-yard line per game have produced a +2.41 Plus/Minus with 63.2 percent Consistency.
• Having at least three red-zone opportunities per game has traditionally resulted in a +3.66 Plus/Minus with 70.6 percent Consistency.
• Playing as Vegas favorites has historically meant a chunky +4.50 Plus/Minus with reliable 72.2 percent Consistency. They haven’t fared nearly as well as Vegas dogs, yielding a -0.98 Plus/Minus with 44.4 percent Consistency.
• When the opposing defense has allowed at least a +0.1 Plus/Minus to the position, these RBs have generated a +4.88 Plus/Minus with 65.0 percent Consistency.
Elite RBs ($7,000 and higher)
The traditional elite RB has historically delivered a +1.00 Plus/Minus with 56.2 percent Consistency while being owned at an average of 14.4 percent in large tournaments.
The sample is small, but elite RBs playing on Thursday have been flat out redonkulous at a near perfect clip. Bell, Freeman, DeMarco Murray, and Arian Foster have all scored more than 30 DraftKings points in this position.
With a baseline sample so small, there’s not a lot that we can do, but because I’m a freak I did run every trend available. Here are a few of the things I found interesting . . .
• They perform nearly identically at home and on the road:
• In non-division games they have averaged 32.9 DraftKings points
• They have played well as both favorites and dogs. However, as favorites, the elite Thursday RBs have generated a +11.03 Plus/Minus with 100.0 percent Consistency, averaging 28.2 DraftKings points per game. Not one has scored fewer than 20.8 points in a game.
What Have We Learned?
We didn’t actually learn this, but I thought that you should know that there’s a 100 percent chance that Eddie Lacy will go off on Thursdays 50 percent of the time. The other half of the time, he’s terrible.
Value-priced RBs on Thursday have (in general) been pretty horrible. However, those getting at least 10 carries per game or two targets per game have met or exceeded expectations more than 60 percent of the time. Concentrating and utilizing our new market share metric can be a profitable venture.
Mid-priced RBs on Thursdays have been generally productive, more than their traditional counterparts. They absolutely crush value at home and as favorites and have proven to be extremely consistent in both spots. Backs who are playing in divisional games, getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line, averaging three red-zone opportunities per game, or playing a defense that has been friendly to running backs have met or exceeded salary-based expectations more than 60 percent of the time.
Elite RBs on Thursday have been really good on 10 of 12 chances. Try not to f*ck that up.
