Has Fading Thursday Football Become a Donkey Move?
Those are the immortal words of FantasyLabs Co-founder Jonathan Bales almost exactly two years ago. He has talked about the idea in other places too.
Our own Bryan Mears touched on the subject here last year.
Countless others, including NFL.com wide receiver guru Matt Harmon has suggested fading the Thursday game.
I’m sure you’ve seen it before: That team that starts virtually every player from the Thursday game? I entered at least one Thursday contest every week last season hoping to capitalize on such behavior with a complete fade of Thursday Night Football.
But with so many really smart people (way f*cking smarter than I am) suggesting or at least talking about fading the Thursday game, has the TNF fade become too mainstream? Is there an opportunity to be contrarian by using players from the Thursday games this season?
Projecting ownership is an art, and it remains to be seen if ownership percentages in this season’s Thursday DFS contests will be inflated with Thursday-stacked teams belonging to action-hungry fish wanting to drink 12 packs of watered-down beer while they watch their teams rise to the top of the leader boards.
But by using our Trends tool and Plus/Minus metric, we can see if there have been any historical values that may be worthy of your Thursday roster-construction consideration moving forward.
Because it will suck for both you and me if I type “on DraftKings” after every trend I present, please know that all of the following trends are specific to DraftKings.
It’s All About The Benjamins Baby
Let’s start with quarterbacks and eliminate all QBs who are no more than $5,000 because they are way more often than not backups who do not play or who come into a game for a series and get sacked after they recover a fumbled handoff attempt. There’s just too much noise in the $5,000 QB.
The most expensive QB on DraftKings since 2014 has been a $10,100 Peyton Manning going against his former team. Andrew Luck is the only other QB to be priced at $10,000 or higher and that only happened twice during the 2014 season.
DraftKings made a change in QB pricing last season and Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were the highest-priced QBs of the 2015 season at $8,600. So using a range of $5,100 to $10,100, let’s break down the QBs into two pricing tiers, keeping in mind the rarity of QBs priced at or above $8,600.
The Cheap QBs ($5,100 – $6,700)
Since 2014, the baseline cheap QB has accounted for a +2.42 Plus/Minus with 59.9 percent Consistency.
The same quarterbacks playing on Thursday have seen a significant decrease in both Plus/Minus and Consistency, dropping to a -0.43 Plus/Minus with 48.6 percent Consistency.
We aren’t off to a good start with the cheap QB, but I’m curious if they have any hidden redeeming qualities buried somewhere in that 48.6 percent who have met or exceeded expectations.
There’s no noticeable difference in QBs at home or on the road. Those on teams with high winning percentages don’t perform any better than those on teams with low winning percentages.
Not even the magic of Vegas has an effect: Dogs and favorites suck alike. Totals, line changes, moneylines, spreads — nothing changes.
QBs who attempt more than 35 passes per game see an increase in Plus/Minus but their Consistency drops, making them slightly valuable as tournament plays. Still, they’re shaky. Surprisingly, even QBs who attempt three or more rushes per game see no type of positive change on Thursday nights.
Maybe all those smart guys are right. This might be a donkey idea.
But there are a few positive trends with both a decent Plus/Minus and reliable Consistency.
Check out these results from cheap QBs playing on Thursday:
• All we are is dust in the wind. Cheap QBs playing in a wind speed of no more than five miles per hour have produced a +0.95 Plus/Minus with 54.5 percent Consistency.
• Teams that struggle defending the QB position are good targets. Cheap QBs playing teams with an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +0.10 have generated a +1.82 Plus/Minus with 52.6 percent Consistency.
• Opposing defenses whose teams don’t win a ton of games are also good targets. Cheap QBs facing opponents with a win percentage of no more than 59 percent have accumulated a +2.79 Plus/Minus with a whopping 68.4 percent Consistency.
• Wanna get away? The sample is very small, but cheap QBs playing on Thursday in non-division games have provided a +4.88 Plus/Minus with a trustworthy 83.3 percent Consistency.
The Expensive QBs ($6,800 – $10,100)
Since 2014, the baseline expensive QB has delivered a +1.57 Plus/Minus with 54.4 percent Consistency: A significant decrease in both Plus/Minus and Consistency from the baseline cheap QB.
The mid-priced QB on Thursday? Freaking amazing.
In case you don’t know that those blue words present the opportunity to click a link, that’s a +1.88 Plus/Minus with incredible 72.4 percent Consistency.
Being at home or away has no real actionable impact. At home the QBs produce a slightly higher Plus/Minus but sacrifice Consistency. On the road, they lose a bit of Plus/Minus but gain Consistency. Expensive QBs in both division and non-division games on Thursday do well to roughly the same degree.
Favorites have a higher Plus/Minus than dogs, but their Consistency ratings are comparable.
These expensive QBs playing on Thursday crushed value:
• Be trendy. Expensive QBs who have at least four Pro Trends have delivered a +2.49 Plus/Minus with 82.4 percent Consistency.
• Don’t be afraid to bargain shop. Expensive QBs with a Bargain Rating greater than 20 have manufactured a +3.43 Plus/Minus with 87.0 Consistency.
• High percentage passes lead to high Plus/Minus and Consistency. Expensive QBs who throw at least 15 percent of their passes to running backs have produced a +3.42 Plus/Minus with an impeccable 89.5 percent Consistency.
• Volume is everything, even on Thursday. Expensive QBs attempting an average of at least 35 passes per game have generated a beefy +4.17 Plus/Minus with a delicious 89.5 percent Consistency.
What Have We Learned?
In general, cheap quarterbacks playing on Thursday not named Matt Stafford are not usually a good investment.
However, you can find value in these cheap Thursday QBs if you search out quarterbacks in certain advantageous spots.
Expensive QBs should not be faded based solely on the day of the week. Higher-priced QBs playing on Thursdays have been valuable and consistent under nearly every condition imaginable.
Again, whether these quarterbacks end up being over-owned relative to the value that they possess is an entirely different matter.
Coming soon: Thursday running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
