With only four games on the divisional slate, we must take an extra close look at the WR/CB matchups to gain an edge. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Chiefs Secondary
Brown heads to Arrowhead Stadium to face off against a Kansas City defense that ranks seventh against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Unfortunately for Brown, the Chiefs allowed 300 less yards after the catch on the season than his last opponent in the Dolphins. The Chiefs defense has allowed only 15 passing touchdowns this season, but they have allowed eight 100-yard receivers.
Marcus Peters has been one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks this season, but he does not shadow opposing receivers. Thanks to Peters, the Chiefs rank third against receivers on his side of the field, per DVOA. For reference, they rank 17th against receivers on the opposite side. Brown should see Peters, but Todd Haley is likely to line Brown up with Terrance Mitchell and Steven Nelson as much as possible. In Week 4, Brown saw five targets, all coming outside the coverage of Peters. He caught four of them for 62 yards and two touchdowns. Both Mitchell and Nelson grade outside the top-35 CBs in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Brown has the highest median projection in our Player Models for both DK and FD.
Julio Jones vs. Richard Sherman
Since losing Earl Thomas, the Seahawks have allowed nine touchdowns and grabbed only one interception. They have especially struggled with deep passes since losing Thomas. Both J.J. Nelson and Davante Adams averaged over 25 yards per reception on their 100-yard outings against the Thomas-less secondary. They also allowed 81 yards on only four catches to Marvin Jones last weekend. Julio is averaging 17 yards per reception this season — the second-highest mark of his career. Per Sharp Football Stats, the deep passer ratings against Seattle have drastically increased without Thomas.
Weeks 1-12 with Thomas:
Weeks 13-18 without Thomas:
This week, the Seahawks are all but guaranteed to use Sherman in shadow coverage. That being said, Julio dominated the Seahawks in Week 6 even with Sherman shadowing him on 31 of 44 routes. In that game, Julio caught 7-of-9 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown – with Earl Thomas on the field.
Notable Matchups
Davante Adams vs. Brandon Carr and Anthony Brown
Adams’ value is largely contingent on the availability of Jordy Nelson, who is unlikely to play this weekend.
With Jordy out of the lineup, Adams should assume the role of the primary outside receiver while Randall Cobb mans the slot. The Cowboys use Brandon Carr and Anthony Brown as stationary cornerbacks on the outside. With Jordy in the lineup, Adams was running nearly 50 percent of his routes on the left side of the field, but without Nelson, McCarthy is likely to move him around: He should see an equal amount of Carr and Brown. If we consider that every team will ‘start’ three cornerbacks, Brown ties for the fifth-most fantasy points allowed per route of the 24 starters on this slate. While Carr has allowed less fantasy points per route, he grades much worse per PFF. Carr ranks as their 51st cornerback in coverage, while Brown grades as the 34th.
The concern with Dallas is their ability to drain the clock. However, Dallas allowed 63 plays against them on average, which ranks only 13th on the season. With the Cowboys scoring touchdowns on 42 percent of their drives, they have drained less clock in the second half of this season. Teams just haven’t scored points against them recently, as they’ve faced volatile QBs Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, and Sam Bradford over the last five weeks. Prior to that stretch, Kirk Cousins threw for 449 passing yards and three touchdowns. Adams will be Rodgers’ No. 1 WR: He rates as the second-highest receiver in both the DK and FD Levitan Models.
Randall Cobb vs. Orlando Scandrick
Everyone and their mother is upset that they did not have more Cobb last weekend. However, remember that he had a brutal matchup before Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left with an injury. As a result, Rodgers and Cobb picked on PFF’s 92nd-ranked cornerback in coverage, Trevin Wade. This week, Cobb draws another good matchup against Scandrick in the slot. Three of the six largest receiving games against Dallas in 2016 came from receivers who primarily play in the slot: Steve Smith, Jeremy Kerley, and Jamison Crowder all cleared at least 88 receiving yards against Dallas and combined for two touchdowns. Scandrick did not play in their first game, but the Cowboys allowed Cobb to catch seven passes for 53 yards and a touchdown earlier this season.
Doug Baldwin vs. Brian Poole
The worst part of the Falcons’ coverage this season has been the deep middle of the field. Baldwin’s only two catches over 50 yards this season have come in the deep middle of the field. Baldwin runs nearly 75 percent of his routes from the slot and therefore sees plenty of volume in that area. With Russell Wilson under center, Baldwin has posted an insanely-high Adjusted Yards per Attempt mark (AYA) in the deep middle of the field.
However, in the short middle of the field, Poole has been very strong this season. He is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route of the three starting CBs for Atlanta. Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons are strongest in the short middle (within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage) of the field. Ultimately, we know it takes only one chance for Baldwin, and he has a great shot to get deep in the middle of the field against Atlanta.
Julian Edelman vs. Kareem Jackson
Edelman is running over 50 percent of his routes from the slot and will therefore spend most his day in Jackson’s coverage. Jackson has been the weakest cornerback of the Houston starters: He is allowing the third-most fantasy points per route of starting cornerbacks on this slate. Edelman has now seen at least 11 targets in six of his last seven games and should enjoy the best matchup of the Patriots receivers this weekend. He rates as the top receiver in both the FD and DK Levitan Models.
Notable Upgrades
Dez Bryant vs. Packers Secondary
The Packers secondary has been a total mess this season, allowing seven 100-yard receivers and two 200-yard receivers. The two cornerbacks allowing the most fantasy points per route on this slate are Green Bay’s Damarious Randall and Micah Hyde. While LaDarius Gunter has played much better than Randall and Hyde, he is still allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per route on this slate. No matter where Dez lines up on the field, it should be considered an upgrade.
Mohamed Sanu vs. Jeremy Lane
The Seahawks’ weakest cornerback this season has been Lane, who grades as the 100th cornerback in coverage and is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per route defended among CBs in this slate. Sanu’s volume has been a major concern this season, but he draws the best matchup of the Falcons receivers. Our models project Sanu at less than 10 percent ownership.
Cole Beasley vs. Micah Hyde
With injuries to the Packers secondary, Hyde has taken over as the slot cornerback this season. Hyde is a safety and has been converted into a nickelback. He has not been very good in that role, grading as PFF’s 70th-ranked cornerback in coverage. Of the starting CBs on this slate, Hyde is allowing the second-most fantasy points per route. Last weekend, Sterling Shepard was able to get open at will against Hyde, catching four passes for 63 yards on nine targets. Unfortunately, Shepard had two big drops, one of which should have been an easy touchdown. In their previous matchup, Beasley caught all six of his targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns — his biggest fantasy game this season.
Notable Downgrades
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller vs. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, and Eric Rowe
Hopkins may be a popular option after a solid outing last weekend, but he and Fuller draw a tough matchup in this game. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, Butler, Ryan, and Rowe have allowed 37 completions for 399 yards, zero touchdowns, six interceptions, and a QB rating of 39.1 on the 62 targets against them over the last five weeks. Many will point to the weak quarterback competition the Patriots have faced in that span, but that competition does not get any stronger this weekend with Brock Osweiler under center.
