The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Wild Card weekend is in the books and with it goes this season’s QB3, QB8, QB10 and TyGod Taylor. Be sure to check out our Vegas Lines and Outliers articles, as well as our Market Share report, to stay on top of the latest Vegas and workload related trends heading into the divisional round. Let’s get it.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the four-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big One
Much like the status of the NFL’s quarterbacks over the past 15 years, one has stood head and shoulders above everyone else:
- Tom Brady ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
TB12 haters won’t find solace in a potential Super Bowl run consisting of Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles, but here we are.
Gisele Bündchen’s Husband
Brady hasn’t played the Titans since 2015, but it’s fair to say he’s faced tougher challenges than their 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that doesn’t feature a cornerback graded higher than 35th by PFF this season. He’ll look to continue to dominate in the playoffs, as only the Broncos’ historically great 2015 defense has managed to keep Brady from finding the end zone on multiple occasions over his last eight January/February performances. Historically, Brady has been leaned on more than ever in single-elimination contests, averaging an additional 4.2 passes and 0.6 rush attempts per game in the postseason compared to the regular season. The latter increase has proven especially fantasy friendly, as the league’s best-ever QB-sneak artist has scored a rushing touchdown in 17.7 percent of his playoff games compared to just 6.7 percent of his regular season contests.
The Titans deserve plenty of credit for winning back-to-back do-or-die games against the Jaguars and Chiefs, but their defense ranked among the bottom eight units in average DraftKings points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks this season (per our Trends tool). The Patriots are expected to welcome back Rex Burkhead (knee, probable), James White (ankle, probable), and Chris Hogan (shoulder, probable), giving Brady a loaded supporting cast along with a slate-high implied total of 30.25 points. Still, Brady’s history as a double-digit favorite hasn’t been all that great, as he’s posted a -0.91 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and surpassed his salary-based expectation in just five of his last 16 games when favored by 10-plus points since 2014. Despite the game script concerns, Brady is the highest-rated quarterback in our CSURAM88, SportsGeek, and Bales Pro Models.
Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Brady’s elevated salary and matchup lead to increased ownership levels across various contest sizes.
Hot Routes
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Big Ben’s early-season decline was a bit overstated, as he wound up with a 28/14 touchdown/interception ratio while averaging more yards per attempt than he did last season. He turned his season around shortly after his first matchup with the Jaguars, as he averaged 2.2 touchdowns per game and 8.2 yards per attempt in Weeks 6-16 compared to 1.2 touchdowns and 6.5 yards per attempt in Weeks 1-5. Still, Roethlisberger’s atrocious Week 5 performance shouldn’t simply be swept under the rug:
All five Big Ben INTs against JAX in Week 5 (Ramsey/Smith/Church/Gipson x2) pic.twitter.com/xrymHlG9Ki
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2018
Big Ben was the only quarterback to surpass 275 yards on the Jaguars this season, as he joined 11 other signal callers who failed to throw for multiple touchdowns against the league’s best defense in both overall and pass DVOA. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are PFF’s No. 2 and No. 6 overall cornerbacks this season, but the league’s second-best pass rush in generating consistent pressure has been just as important to the unit’s overall success. Roethlisberger hasn’t surpassed 200 passing yards and thrown for multiple scores in a playoff game since his last Super Bowl in 2011. He also has the second-lowest Projected Plus/Minus among all quarterbacks this week. Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.08. Big Ben and Le’Veon Bell‘s fantasy production since 2014 has a strong +0.32 correlation, which makes sense given the running back’s huge role in the passing game. Consider using our Lineup Builder to make contrarian Roethlisberger-Bell stacks on Saturday.
Matt Ryan ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Ryan snapped his five-game postseason streak with at least 250 yards and multiple touchdown passes against the Rams last week. This week’s matchup against the Eagles’ fifth- and seventh-ranked defense in overall and pass DVOA won’t be any easier. A pass rush consisting of five players graded among PFF’s top-30 interior and edge defenders at getting after the quarterback is especially concerning. The Falcons’ eighth-ranked offensive line in adjusted-sack rate has done a great job keeping Ryan clean all season, but the slate’s second-toughest matchup in DraftKings points allowed above salary-based expectation to quarterbacks has him ranked fifth at his position in both projected ceiling and floor. Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
Drew Brees ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Brees’ regular season consisted of an alarmingly-low number of games with more than 300-plus passing yards or three-plus touchdowns, but he promptly dissected the Panthers to the tune of 376 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday. He’s surpassed 300 yards or thrown multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 12 career playoff games, but will now face a Vikings defense that has been downright nasty at home since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014:
- Vikings defense at home since 2014 (32 games):17.96 PPG, 204.5 pass yards, 12.7 DraftKings PPG, -3.7 Plus/Minus
- On the road (32 games): 19.66 PPG, 224.8 pass yards, 15.8 DraftKings PPG, -0.6 Plus/Minus
Brees passed for 291 yards and threw a touchdown during the Saints’ season-opening loss to the Vikings. New Orleans’ 19 points would mark just one of two instances all season where they failed to put up at least 20 points. The Vikings ranked among the top-three defenses in fewest DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to quarterbacks this season. Brees also has the toughest matchup on the slate in terms of DraftKings points allowed below salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
Blake Bortles ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Bortles became the first quarterback to produce more rushing yards than passing yards in a game without clearing 100 yards in either statistic since the Bills’ Gary Marangi in 1976. Both Bortles and head coach Doug Marrone attributed the performance in part to the weather and it’s fair to say Heinz Field – currently calling for sub-20 degree temperatures with winds approaching 10 miles per hour – won’t be much better. While Bortles made most of his big plays with his feet last week, his 88 rushing yards marked just the second time in 63 career games that he surpassed even 70 yards on the ground. It’s tough to expect Bortles to be a consistently effective rushing threat considering he ranks among the league’s seven-slowest starting quarterbacks as far as 40-yard dash times are concerned. Nevertheless, Bortles’ position-low price tag across the industry comes with a position-high 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings for his matchup against the Steelers’ eighth-ranked defense in pass DVOA.
Nick Foles ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Since dissecting the Giants defense to the tune of 237 passing yards, four touchdowns, and ultimately 34 points, the Eagles offense has found the end zone once in their last two games against the Raiders and Cowboys. Foles isn’t as bad as his last five quarters of football have indicated, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against a Falcons defense that just held the league’s highest-scoring offense to only 13 points. Dan Quinn’s defenses have posted agnostic home/away splits since he arrived in Atlanta in 2015, while only Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson managed to eclipse 25 DraftKings points on the Falcons this season. The Eagles have been implied to score fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games after having zero-such games in Weeks 1-16 as Foles unsurprisingly carries the lowest projected ceiling among all quarterbacks this week.
Marcus Mariota ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Mariota’s receiving and blocking prowess can’t be overlooked, but his 205 passing yards and 2/1 touchdown/interception ratio against the Chiefs’ 30th-ranked defense in overall DVOA demonstrated his passing ceiling in the team’s ‘exotic smashmouth’ offense. Still, the team’s recent do-or-die strategy has resulted in back-to-back games with at least eight carries for Mariota, a total he reached in just two of his previous 41 starts. He won’t exactly have a tougher matchup than he did last week. The Patriots’ 31st-ranked defense in overall DVOA has allowed seven quarterbacks to rack up 20-plus DraftKings points this season. Mariota carries the third-highest projected ceiling among all quarterbacks, but could have protection issues if starting guard Quinton Spain (back) is ultimately unable to suit up. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track all fantasy relevant player’s daily practice participation and estimated game status.
The Model Quarterback
Other than Brady, one other quarterback stands atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Case Keenum ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Keenum ranks outside of the top 16 quarterbacks in red zone and deep ball (20+ yards) pass attempts per game, and he’s only been asked to attempt more than 40 passes twice this season. This not-so-fantasy-friendly workload helped make Keenum just the QB16 in DraftKings PPG among quarterbacks with double-digit starts this season, although his multiple 29-plus point performances demonstrate his ceiling. Keenum has also played his best ball during the second half of the season, as he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his last nine starts.
The Vikings’ sixth-ranked offensive line in adjusted sack rate will have their hands full with Cameron Jordan, PFF’s No. 1 overall edge defender. The Saints defense is a shell of the unit that the Vikings faced in Week 1, as they’re down four defensive starters in their front seven, and perhaps none bigger than Alex Okafor, who suffered a torn Achilles in Week 11. PFF’s No. 23 overall edge defender’s impact on the defense has been evident:
- Weeks 1-11: 19.6 PPG, 211.3 pass yards, 16.3 DraftKings PPG, -1.3 Plus/Minus
- Weeks 12-18: 22.3 PPG, 255.7 pass yards, 18.3 DraftKings PPG, +0.6 Plus/Minus
Despite the injuries, the Saints’ fifth-ranked defense in pass DVOA was one of the better units in the league without some of their starters, but they’ve still allowed 1.6 DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past calendar year – the second-highest mark in the Divisional Round. Keenum has the third-highest projected floor among all quarterbacks.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
