The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in the divisional round playoffs!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
The Patriots are fifth in pace of play this season, averaging 26.5 seconds per play, and they’re second in neutral situations. The Titans are certainly not a fast-paced offense — they want to pound the ball with Derrick Henry — but their defense has been in fast situations this year. The Titans D ranks sixth in pace of play and fifth in neutral situations. For those reasons, the Patriots are projected for the most plays this week in our NFL Models. Brandin Cooks is first among all players this week with 260 offensive snaps over his past four games. He should be quite popular this week against a Tennessee defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA on the year.
The team projected for the fewest snaps this week is the Atlanta Falcons, who play an Eagles team that ranks first on the year in total time of possession. The Atlanta offense has been a slow one this season, ranking 20th and averaging just 28.14 seconds per play. They could have a run-heavy game script as three-point road favorites. The Falcons take on a very tough Philly defense that ranks fifth overall and a respective seventh and third against the run and pass. It could pay off in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) to fade the Falcons this week.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
Case Keenum has really zoned in on his top two receivers of late: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs rank third and fourth among this week’s pass-catchers in market share over the past four games, getting 25.4 and 24.6 percent of Keenum’s targets, respectively. Jerick McKinnon is third on the team with an 11.5 percent market share and tight end Kyle Rudolph is fourth with a 9.0 percent mark; there’s a big drop-off between the two studs and the rest of the team. It will be interesting to watch whether the Vikings continue to pepper those guys with opportunities or if they’ll be funneled into feeding the running backs. The Saints rank fifth against the pass but just 23rd versus the rush this year.
Speaking of tough matchups, the Saints face a Vikings defense that ranks second overall, fourth against the pass, and fifth against the rush. Alvin Kamara has been a fantasy beast this season, but he got just 10.0 percent of Drew Brees‘ targets last week in their Wild Card matchup. He’s still second behind Michael Thomas on the team with a 21.0 percent target share over the past four weeks, but it’s fair to wonder whether they’ll go heavy on him this week. The Vikings are the best team in the league in limiting production to pass-catching backs. If he struggles, Brees could zone in even more than usual on his stud WR in Thomas.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
Le’Veon Bell ranks ‘only’ fifth among all RBs in the slate with a 54.7 percent rushing market share over the past four games, but don’t forget how little he’s actually played of late. The Steelers didn’t give him full snaps in Week 16 as they blew out the Houston Texans, they then rested him in Week 17 with their seed essentially set, and then they got their first-round bye. One could argue that it was Week 15 against the Patriots when he was last geared up and fully engaged. That amount of rest could work in his favor this week, and the Steelers should target the Jags on the ground. Of course, that doesn’t mean they will. Earlier this year in Pittsburgh, Bell got just 15 carries and Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 55 times.
Derrick Henry is clearly the Titans’ guy now that DeMarco Murray is out: Over the past two weeks, Henry has received 96.6 and 100.0 percent of their rushes. He turned his 28 touches last week against the Chiefs into 156 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets a Patriots defense that has been atrocious against the run this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA. Of course, Henry will have to deal with potentially awful game script as a 13.5-point road dog, but he had a similar issue last week as well. Could he crush as a contrarian dog yet again?
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
Dion Lewis has exploded for over 30 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He received a combined 50 carries and 12 targets in those matchups, but perhaps the most important thing has been his red zone work. He’s tied among all players with nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past 10 games. He could have a massive role again this week, especially with James White and Rex Burkhead possibly limited with injuries. As a 13.5-point favorite and implied for a massive 30.3 points, Lewis could be busy in the red zone yet again.
The guy Lewis is tied with for the most opportunities inside the 10 over the past four weeks is . . . Minnesota’s Latavius Murray. He received seven rushing attempts in that area over the past two games and it’s possible the Vikings could elect to go run-heavy as four-point home favorites against a Saints team that is much more exploitable on the ground than through the air. Given the likely heavy chalkiness of Bell and Lewis, Murray is an intriguing GPP option this week.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
