The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (91 teams) have averaged 10.09 points with a +1.91 Plus/Minus and a 58.2 percent Consistency Rating during the regular season this year. Defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (117 teams) have averaged 9.55 points with a +2.10 Plus/Minus and a 58.1 percent Consistency Rating. With the regular season completed, high-priced defenses averaged more points per game (PPG) on DraftKings but provided more bang for your buck in terms of Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Only Atlanta (11) and Jacksonville (13) managed double-digit points in the Wild Card Round when no other D/ST scored more than six points.
The Big One Defense
- Pittsburgh ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Steel Curtain
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the regular season with the highest number of sacks (56), highest sack percentage (10.01), and best adjusted sack rate (9.8 percent) in the NFL. It’s safe to say they can get after the quarterback. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s offensive line allowed the fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.4 percent) in the league so they will be a good test for Pittsburgh. We currently have the Steelers projected for the most sacks (3.4) on the small slate this week. Pittsburgh was tied for sixth in the NFL this season with their 3.2 percent interception rate and ninth with 16 total interceptions. Additionally, the very dangerous JuJu Smith-Schuster posted an electric 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the final week of the regular season, which could make him an interesting stacking partner to use with this Pittsburgh defense.
In the Divisional round, the Steelers are seven-point favorites in the game with the second-lowest total on the slate (41.5), and the Jaguars are tied for the lowest implied points total on the slate at 17.25 points. The Pittsburgh defense — presumably well-rested after a bye week — averaged 9.25 fantasy points per game (PPG) with a +2.12 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency on DraftKings in their final four regular season games. Our ownership projections currently have Pittsburgh as one of the two chalkiest D/STs on the slate. Blake Bortles will likely need to pass for more than the pathetic 87 yards he posted last week if the Jaguars hope to come into Pittsburgh and upset the Steelers.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
New England Patriots ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): In their final five home games of the regular season, the Patriots D/ST averaged 11.20 PPG with a +4.48 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +4.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on both sites. New England — slate high 13.5-point favorites — posted 25 sacks in their final six games this season.
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The Vikings host the Saints as five-point favorites but have our lowest projected sack total (1.6) on the slate. New Orleans’ offensive line allowed the second-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.0 percent) and the Minnesota defense registered the 15th-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.3 percent) during the regular season so a sack party seems unlikely. The Vikings defense allowed the third-fewest percentage of offensive drives to end in an offensive score (27.9 percent) this season but they also had the 10th-lowest turnover percentage (10.1 percent) in the NFL. While the Vikings defense may be an above average real-life defense, Hump doesn’t see them generating a ton of fantasy points against this Saints offense.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Stephen Gostowski ($5,300) — kicking at home as a big favorite in the highest-total game on the slate — ends up atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. Gostkowski’s massive median projection of 15.4 points and his gigantic +6.85 Projected Plus/Minus both lead the slate by a comfortable margin. Kickers playing at home in games with comparable implied team totals have averaged 9.67 FPPG and a +1.45 Plus/Minus with a 50.0 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. Gostkowski has performed extremely well in these spots, averaging 11.86 FPPG with a +3.48 Plus/Minus and 85.7 percent Consistency. According to our ownership projections, Gostkowski is going to be the chalk kicker of the week. If you’re not using our Lineup Builder to make a boatload of Gostkowski and Patriots D/ST stacks, you’re mailing it in.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Kai Forbath ($4,900): Forbath has our second-highest projected Plus/Minus (+3.31) and median points projection (11.5) on the slate and is the No. 2 kicker in Adam Levitan’s Player Model. The Vikings are five-point favorites at home, where Forbath averaged 10.13 PPG with a +2.12 Plus/Minus this season.
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Divisional games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
