Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Tight End
- Tom Brady ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
- Rob Gronkowski ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Brady has attempted at least 30 passes in four of his past five games, but he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns only once and never more than two. He’s been banged up, though, and is now coming off of an extra week of rest. There’s certainly value in attacking the highest raw points expectation at the position. The Patriots’ implied total of 30.75 leads the slate by a large margin, and they also carry the highest pass funnel rating of the weekend. In their past three games, excluding Week 17, the Titans defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 23.98 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +5.98 Plus/Minus. The Patriots are currently big 13.5-point home favorites against the Titans, so game script is a concern for the passing game, but there’s a chance a lot of that initial damage will come through the air against this leaky pass defense ranked 24th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Gronkowski — the consensus No. 1 tight end in our Pro Models — led the Patriots with 7.5 targets per game this season even with a goose egg in Week 17. New England also owns the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and Brady has thrown to a tight end on 24.4 percent of his passes over the past year. It’s one of the best on-paper matchups at the position, facing a Titans defense who are 24th against tight ends in DVOA and allowing the 11th-most receiving yards and receptions per game to the position. Chris Hogan could, in theory, siphon a few high-value targets, but his presence could also help lower Gronk’s ownership.
If you’re not using our Lineup Builder to create 150 lineups with Brady and Gronk, you probably should have just ended your NFL season last week.
Running Back + D/ST
- Le’Veon Bell ($9,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
- Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
As detailed by Ian Hartitz this week, Bell’s usage was about as ridiculous down the stretch as you would imagine:
“He and Jarvis Landry were the only players to catch at least five passes in Weeks 10-16, while Bell was one of just 11 players to rack up 60-plus targets during that stretch and one of just three backs to see at least 125 carries.”
The Jaguars were much improved at defending the run after adding Marcell Dareus in Week 9, but they still finished 24th in rush DVOA, not that Bell’s massive workload should scare you off a tough matchup anyway. It is notable that Jacksonville allowed the ninth-fewest total touchdowns and 10th-fewest receiving yards to the position, but they just allowed 119 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches to LeSean McCoy in the Wild Card round.
With the highest adjusted sack rate in the league, the Steelers D/ST could absolutely abuse Blake Bortles and his putrid 63.0 QBR while under pressure this season (Pro Football Focus). However, he probably has the lowest pass attempt expectation on the slate, given his poor 52.17 percent completion percentage last week and success on the ground with 88 yards on 10 attempts. The Steelers are 7.0-point home favorites, averaging 9.71 PPG with a +2.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.48 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven games with comparable spreads this season. Even though they are the most expensive option on the slate, they are currently the highest-rated defense in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Running back
- Case Keenum ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Adam Thielen ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Stefon Diggs ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- Alvin Kamara ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
If you are going to game-stack, you might as well plan to do it in the last game and give yourself flexibility with late-swap. Game theory aside, this gem from Bryan Mears in the Division Round Market Share Report makes a strong case for the Minnesota pass-catchers:
“Case Keenum has really zoned in on his top two receivers of late: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs rank third and fourth among this week’s pass-catchers in market share over the past four games, getting 25.4 and 24.6 percent of Keenum’s targets, respectively. Jerick McKinnon is third on the team with an 11.5 percent market share and tight end Kyle Rudolph is fourth with a 9.0 percent mark; there’s a big drop-off between the two studs and the rest of the team.”
Thielen had at least five receptions in 13 games this season and eight consecutive contests with eight or more targets. He should see less of PFF’s fourth-highest rated cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, who rarely travels into the slot. Thielen will run the majority of his routes against P.J. Williams, who gives Thielen PFF’s fourth-best wide recever-cornerback advantage on the slate. Diggs will likely be shadowed by Lattimore on each snap he runs outside — and he has a much less reliable target share (20.9 percent) than Thielen (27.4) — but it’s a matchup he’s already proven that he can win. Diggs dropped a 7-93-2 stat line when these two teams met in Week 1 and he performs better indoors:
The matchup isn’t great for Kamara. In fact, Minnesota ranks as the best team in the NFL at defending running backs in the passing game (per DVOA). On a per game basis, they allowed the sixth-fewest receptions (4.81), second-fewest receiving yards (31.19), and only one receiving touchdown to the position all season. On the ground they allowed the third-fewest rush attempts (19.25) and rushing yards (68.44). Given his volume of 15.75 touches per game over his past four games, Kamara is probably overpriced — in comparison to Bell who’s $1,800 and $500 more expensive on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively — but adding a high-upside running back to Minnesota stacks in guaranteed prize pools makes a lot of sense with Michael Thomas likely to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. With a 79 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, Kamara boasts the highest raw projection of any Saints player not named Drew Brees.
Photo via Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
