We truly believe here at FantasyLabs that we have the most unique tools and data available to DFS users. However, we also realize that those tools and data are only as awesome and helpful as our ability to effectively communicate how to use everything. As such, we will continually listen to feedback of what you need and try our best to teach our subscribers how to use all of the cool things we have to offer.

With this in mind, we’ve begun a “Trend of the Day” series. Every weekday we’ll walk our subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games.

It’s an odd slate tonight — although it’s fairly small with only five games, we have very different matchups we have to deal with. For example, the Spurs-Heat game has a low total of 194.5, while the Rockets-Warriors game has a high total of 229.5. Let’s see if we can find a nugget or two for tonight’s weird slate.

 

Trend: A High-Total Game With a Large Spread

Step 1: Trends > Vegas Filters > Total > “220 to 235”

 

I also like adding a minute filter just to make sure we’re seeing the fantasy-relevant guys, so let’s do that…

Step 2: Projections > Proj Minutes > “20 to 48”

 

Okay, so now we have a trend that matches both the Rockets and the Warriors tonight — players projected for 20 or more minutes in a game that has a total of at least 220 (although our total tonight is much higher than that).

However, the spread is so large — it’s currently 14 — that we should probably break these teams up separately and see what we find. Let’s start with the Warriors:

Step 3: Vegas Filters > Spread > “-20 to -10”

 

This covers our database for games with a high total and double-digit spread, although there hasn’t been many of them — 31 on the count, as you can see. The Plus/Minus is a good one: +3.90. Let’s find out if it gets any better if we’re looking at just the studs in the matchup — we’ll set salaries at $7k or higher and view the results:

 

Very positive in the past. And tonight’s matches:

 

Alright, now let’s look at the Rockets side.

Step 3: Vegas Filters > Spread > “+20 to +10”

 

Hmm, not so good on the dog side. Let’s look at the top-salaried guys again and see maybe if they can combat the bad situation…

 

…Ouch. That -4.37 Plus/Minus is pretty rough. Although, as a necessary caveat, otheHhistorical sample size is so small that you should perhaps look at the past results on an individual basis instead of solely taking the Plus/Minus number as gospel.

However, the point is this — none of the players in that situation, save for John Wall last week, really crushed value. In fact, only Rudy Gay other than Wall even exceeded their salary-based expectation. Let’s look at the current matches for tonight.

 

These guys should definitely not be in your cash-game lineups, and I would even hesitate having them in a ton of tournament ones as well. Obviously, Harden could pull a John Wall and crush value even in an awful spot, but that is a big risk and on a small slate with limited SG options, it’s likely that Harden will probably be higher owned than he should based on this data.

As a result, look to perhaps pivot to the other SG options, be it Khris Middleton, Dwyane Wade, Bradley Beal, or even down to Rodney Hood or Avery Bradley. Again, the sample size doesn’t make this trend a stone-cold lock, but it certainly makes me — and probably should make you as well — wary of using Harden and Dwight Howard tonight against the Warriors.

Good luck!