We truly believe here at FantasyLabs that we have the most unique tools and data available to DFS users. However, we also realize that those tools and data are only as awesome and helpful as our ability to effectively communicate how to use everything. As such, we will continually listen to feedback of what you need and try our best to teach our subscribers how to use all of the cool things we have to offer.
With this in mind, we’ve begun a “Trend of the Day” series. Every weekday we’ll walk our subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games.
DraftKings is racing to correct Karl-Anthony Towns’ salary to reflect his recent level of production and over the past 30 days, KAT has seen his price point jump by $1,900. Today, he is the most expensive option at center on the site and yet his Projected Plus/Minus at the time of this writing is +8.2. In this edition of “Trend of the Day,” I’m going to take a look at players who have seen a steep price hike, yet are still expected to easily exceed their implied point total based on salary. It’s an interesting result set and I honestly have no idea what to expect going in.
Trend: Monthly Salary Increase of $1900+ & Projected Plus/Minus +8 or More
Step 1: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Salary Change > Set “1900-4800”
We start out on the wrong foot with this trend. When a player sees his salary increase by this much, their implied point total is raised by around nine points. If a player was just promoted to the starting lineup due to injury, that might not be a huge deal. Players like Taj Gibson and Zach LaVine have, at times, done well under these same circumstances.
But if a player is riding a hot streak and nothing has really changed otherwise, it’s going to be very tough for them to consistently score nine more points every game above their previous expectation. Looking at players who have busted in this category, Rodney Stuckey, Lou Williams, Will Barton, and Jamal Crawford fit that description.
KAT probably has more in common with the second group of players, but it’s not a perfect fit. Rookies have a tendency to improve as the season goes on, so in KAT’s case, he’s less likely to be on a hot streak and more likely to just be getting better. The thing about players who are riding a hot streak, though, is they generally don’t maintain a high Projected Plus/Minus once their salary has increased. Of the worst performances within this result set, take a look at the Projected Plus/Minus scores to the far right:
That leads us to our next filter:
Step 2: Projections > Proj +/- > Set “8-14.91”
Here, the results are drastically different. The result set is several times smaller, but that makes sense since this is a fairly rare scenario. The Plus/Minus of +5.60 is obviously great, but the thing that really sticks out to me is the Consistency of 75%. Looking over the past matches, only five of 30 players failed to exceed their implied point total.
Summary
Today is the first decent-sized slate (over five games) where KAT is the single most expensive option at center on DraftKings, so there is some reason to think twice before rostering him with all of the alternatives available. Running this trend shows that we shouldn’t be too concerned about his all-time high price point, as long as his Projected Plus/Minus stays favorable. Phan’s Model agrees with that reasoning – at the moment, KAT is the highest-rated center on DraftKings.
