We truly believe here at FantasyLabs that we have the most unique tools and data available to DFS users. However, we also realize that those tools and data are only as awesome and helpful as our ability to effectively communicate how to use everything. As such, we will continually listen to feedback of what you need and try our best to teach our subscribers how to use all of the cool things we have to offer.

With this in mind, we’ve begun a “Trend of the Day” series. Every weekday we’ll walk our subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games.

Tonight, the Rockets are in a pretty tough spot. They are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back — the last game of their week-long road trip — and for the second consecutive night, they are playing in a game with an over/under above 215. Sucks for them. Conversely, that means that the Blazers are hosting a tired team in what Vegas projects to be a track meet. Let’s setup a Trend to look at Lillard and McCollum a little more closely tonight.

Trend: Road Weary Opponent, High O/U

Step 1: Projections> Proj Minutes> Set “20 to 40”

99% of the time, I start my Trends here because I only care about starters and key bench players, who will receive more than 20 minutes.

Step 2: Time Filters > Opportunity Days between Games > Set “0-1.1”

 

 

Players who are projected to play more than 20 minutes in a game had a Plus/Minus of +1.66, so players are really adding minimal value when their opponent is playing on a back-to-back without considering any additional filters.

Step 3: Team Filters > Home/Visitor > Select “Home”

We do, however, add close to a point when the team is at home and the opponent is on a back-to-back. We’re starting to add some value, but let’s keep going.

 

Step 4: Vegas Filters > Total > Set “214.5+”

 

 

By adding in the Over/Under filter, we have the Plus/Minus up to +3.24, which is pretty good. Now, we know that a game with a high over/under is one to target regardless of other factors, so you might be wondering how much value we actually added by combining these filters. Well, we can remove the “Home” and “Opponent is on B2B” filters and the Plus/Minus drops to +1.91 when we are only looking at players who are projected to play 20+ minutes in games with an O/U of 215+.

We can really stop here – we’ve gotten some good data on a general level. But while we’re here, we might as well take a look at how Portland has performed in high O/U games.

BONUS: Remove “Home” and “Opponent on B2B Filters”.

BONUS: Team Filters > Select “Portland Trail Blazers”

 

 

That’s a great over/under, although I would caution that Portland has only played in four games with an O/U this high so far in 2015-2016. If we want to increase the result set a little bit, we can set the O/U at a lower number – let’s say 210:

BONUS: Edit “Total” Filter > Change From “214.5 to 210”

Okay, that’s still pretty good, and we now have nine games this season to look at in the result set.

 

Best of all, by opening up the “Player Name” filter, we can see that Lillard and McCollum have both done well individually in these types of games:

 

Conclusion

Any way you slice it, Lillard and McCollum appear to be in great spots tonight. We looked at the results in a general level, and added +3.25 fantasy points per player per game. Then, we looked at Portland’s performance in high O/U games and once again found positive results. Our Trends tool is telling us to fire up Dame and McCollum tonight.