The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
Taxslayer Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 30
Louisville (8-4) faces Mississippi State (8-4, No. 23) at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, FL. There’s really only one reason to watch this game.
Lamar Jackson: Quarterback, Louisville
Last year Jackson won the Heisman at the age of 19, becoming the youngest Heisman winner in history. Not yet 21, Jackson is perhaps the Deshaun Watson of this year’s draft class: A highly productive and athletic dual-threat Davey O’Brien-winning Atlantic Coast Conference three-year starter who, despite having difference-making talent and decent size (6’3″ and 215 pounds), is not truly in consideration to be the first quarterback selected. The question with Jackson is whether his style of play will translate to the NFL. Whereas Watson completed 67.4 percent of his career pass attempts and had ‘only’ 1,934 yards rushing, Jackson has a completion rate of just 57.4 percent and has rushed for 3,974 yards. Watson is a passing quarterback who can run; Jackson is a running quarterback who is still learning to pass. In that sense, he is perhaps more similar to Michael Vick as a prospect than to Watson.
As a true freshman, Jackson made eight starts at quarterback (and one start at running back), immediately making an impact as he rushed for 960 yards and 11 touchdowns and added 1,840 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air with a 54.7 percent completion rate and 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). As a sophomore Jackson progressed as a passer: He still completed just 56.2 percent of his passes, but his AY/A jumped up to 9.1 percent as he passed for 3,543 yards and 30 touchdowns. And as a runner he crushed with 1,571 yards and 21 touchdowns: Only three Football Bowl Subdivision running backs had more yards and touchdowns than he had. And as a junior he has continued to improve, completing 60.4 percent of his passes with a 9.3 AY/A and running for 1,443 yards and 17 touchdowns with a career-high rushing average of 6.9 yards per attempt. Per Football Study Hall, the Cardinals this year are third in Rushing S&P+ and seventh in Passing S&P+ — and that’s almost entirely due to Jackson’s play. Unless he massively disappoints in his pre-draft workouts, some team is likely to draft Jackson with a first-round pick, especially after the rookie-year success of Watson in 2017. Jackson has an elite 91.4 Pro Football Focus grade.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 30
When I think of liberty, I think of AutoZone — but that’s just me. Iowa State (7-5) faces Memphis (10-2, No. 20) in Memphis, TN, at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Favored by -4.0 in what’s essentially a home game, Memphis has two notable draft-eligible prospects.
Riley Ferguson: Quarterback, Memphis
Ferguson profiles as a Day 3 prospect, but an analysis of him underscores the importance of context. At a quick glance, Ferguson looks like a soon-to-be 23-year-old redshirt senior with only two years of starting experience at Memphis, which has a decent program but isn’t known as a factory of future NFL quarterbacks: For instance (cough), Paxton Lynch. Ferguson, though, is more than just a two-year starter at a Group of Five school. An All-American four-star recruit, Ferguson committed to Tennessee as a high school senior in 2012 when Derek Dooley was coach, but when he arrived as a freshman in 2013 Dooley had been replaced by Butch Jones. Although Ferguson was given a chance to compete for the starting job right away, he never warmed to Jones and his staff, and a leg injury in practice forced him to take a medical redshirt his first year. He again competed for the starting job in the 2014 spring practices, but after Ferguson’s academic year was over he left Tennessee and sat out the season, instead working for a car dealership and custom fence company.
Wanting to get back into football, he in 2015 enrolled at Coffeyville Community College — a popular school for players who take the junior college route to the NFL — and he played like a stud, completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,942 yards and 35 touchdowns (to six interceptions) in nine games. A popular JC recruit, Ferguson enrolled at Memphis in January of 2016 and immediately earned the starting job after Lynch’s early departure to the NFL. In his two years at Memphis, Ferguson has continued to ball out, completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 7,669 yards and 68 touchdowns with a smoking 9.2 AY/A. Ferguson’s production will be dismissed by some scouts because he plays in the American Athletic Conference, and he has limited mobility as evidence by his career mark of 0.5 yards per carry (including sacks), but he has good size (6’4″ and 210 pounds) and might have been an SEC starter as an 18-year-old true freshman if circumstances had been just a little different. If Ferguson performs well in East-West Shrine Game practices and pre-draft workouts, he could find himself being drafted at the end of Day 2. This year Memphis is ninth in passing success rate at 48.1 percent: Ferguson has some NFL potential.
Anthony Miller: Wide Receiver, Memphis
I try not to get too excited about small (5’11” and 190 pounds) non-Power Five wide receivers who play almost exclusively in the slot, didn’t break out early in college, don’t supplement their receiving stats with significant rushing or return production, and will turn 24 years old as rookies — because I’m a realist — but Miller is intriguing. After redshirting his first year and missing his second year to injury, Miller was a reliable receiver for Lynch in 2015, finishing first on the team with five touchdowns receiving, second with 694 receiving yards, and third with 47 receptions. The following season, with a new coach (Mike Norvell) and quarterback (Fergson), Miller took college football by storm, turning 95 receptions into 1,434 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 36.2 and 41.2 percent of Memphis’ receiving yards and touchdowns. Showing that last year was no fluke, Miller this year has 92 receptions for 1,407 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 34.9 and 45.9 percent of the receiving yards and touchdowns. On top of that, throughout his career he’s chipped in 30 carries for 150 yards and three touchdowns, which isn’t massive but also isn’t insignificant. No one can question his production. He’s prolific. This year he’s third in the country with 3.50 yards per route run (PFF).
The problem is that there have been lots of productive non-Power Five receivers who do nothing in the NFL — and Miller looks like them. More to the point, he doesn’t look like the non-Power Five receivers who eventually do have NFL success. Let’s compare him to Antonio Brown, who was a sixth-round selection out of Central Michigan. Brown produced immediately as a freshman. He lined up all over the formation. He contributed each year significantly as a runner and returner. That’s not Miller, who is being touted as a Day 2 selection! If Miller displays strong size-adjusted athleticism at the combine, then he’ll deserve the hype. If, however, he possesses the athleticism one normally associates with Group of Five prospects, he will at that point look like an expensive version of Justin Hardy — who hasn’t come close to living up to his fourth-round acquisition cost. I want to like Miller, but I’m reserving my full judgment till the combine. He’ll be someone scouts watch closely at Senior Bowl practices, where he’ll probably stand out with his route-running skillz. I’m expecting a lot of #DraftTwitter love for Miller over the next four months.
——
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
