The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Friday, Dec. 29
The first of the New Year’s Six, this game features a couple of two-loss top-10 teams in Southern California (11-2, No. 8) and Ohio State (11-2, No. 5). While the most notable prospects in this game are Trojans, the Buckeyes are -7.5 favorites at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, and our numbers like Ohio State for one simple reason: The Buckeyes have Urban Meyer.
Sam Darnold: Quarterback, Southern California
As of December 28, Darnold is a +175 favorite to be the first quarterback selected in the 2018 draft. On September 14, after the first two games of the season, he was also a +175 favorite. Even though he hasn’t had a great season, he’s been good enough to go wire to wire as the presumptive No. 1 pick. The Browns own the top overall pick, and Darnold is just a 20-year-old redshirt sophomore, so there’s no guarantee that he actually will declare early or be selected No. 1 overall, but he looks like a future NFL starter: He has the size (6’4″ and 220 pounds) and winning record (11-2 this year, 10-3 last year) to appeal to general managers, and he also has a great narrative as a multi-sport Orange County kid who stayed local to play for his hometown team and whose grandfather played basketball at USC in the 1950s before becaming the Marlboro Man. In general, the Marlboro Man’s progeny > everyone else.
After sitting out his first year on campus, Darnold was a star for USC last year, completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 3,086 yards and 31 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He’s regressed this year, completing ‘just’ 63.7 percent of his passes for 3,787 yards and 26 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Although he has dropped to 8.7 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) from 9.0, his 2017 mark is still solid, and a 0.3 AY/A drop isn’t all that drastic. On the whole, the USC passing offense has still been a top unit this year. Per Football Study Hall, last year the Trojans were fourth in Passing S&P+ (135.0) and fifth in passing success rate (51.2 percent). This year they’ve been eighth in both (125.5 and 48.4 percent). Darnold has been occasionally inconsistent, but he has pro-level arm talent and good mobility in the pocket and as a runner, averaging 2.6 yards per carry (including sacks) for his career. Especially for a young second-year Power Five starter, Darnold has done well. He might go the Andrew Luck route and opt for a third year of Pac-12 play before declaring for the draft — and if he enters the NFL in 2018 he very well could redshirt as a rookie backup behind a stopgap veteran — but one way or another Darnold will likely be a first-round pick whenever he’s drafted.
Ronald Jones II: Running Back, Southern California
An All-American high-schooler from Texas, Jones in 2015 led the Trojans as a true freshman with 987 yards and eight touchdowns rushing as the second timeshare back in an offense led by quarterback Cody Kessler. Since then Jones has played as the lead back, rushing for 2,568 yards and 30 touchdowns over his 25 games as a sophomore and junior. This year in particular he’s been a workhorse, averaging 20.2 carries for 123.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Jones hasn’t been prolific as a pass catcher (31 career receptions), but he’s been adequate with 241 yards and two touchdowns through the air over the past two years. With three straight seasons of 1,000 scrimmage yards and an average of 13.7 touchdowns per year, Jones has been one of the steadiest college running backs since arriving at USC.
A Pro Football Focus All-American this year with his elite overall grade of 92.6, Jones is a Day 2 prospect who seems likely to declare for the 2018 draft. One of the factors that keeps him from being a Day 1 prospect is his size (6’0″ and 200 pounds). Although Jones has produced like a workhorse, he isn’t built like a prototypical NFL lead back, but he does have the frame to add good weight and could emerge as a reliable runner if given the opportunity: He’s third among draft-eligible Football Bowl Subdivision backs with 54 missed tackles forced this year (PFF). If he displays good athleticism at the combine he could be a second-rounder; if he doesn’t, he’ll likely be a mid-rounder with upside.
Deontay Burnett: Wide Receiver, Southern California
Productive USC receivers have a long and proud history of leaving school and declaring for the draft as early as possible — in some cases too early.
- 2017 draft: JuJu Smith-Schuster, true junior
- 2015 draft: Nelson Agholor, true junior
- 2014 draft: Marqise Lee, true junior
- 2013 draft: Robert Woods, true junior
- 2010 draft: Damian Williams, redshirt junior
- 2007 draft: Dwayne Jarrett, true junior
- 2005 draft: Mike Williams, true sophomore
Burnett, though, might be different. A local three-star recruit, Burnett wasn’t a coveted player coming out of high school. He walked on at USC — his dream school — in the hope of earning a blueshirt scholarship, which he eventually was offered. Although Burnett has done well enough this year to warrant a jump to the NFL, he could stay in college for one more season, especially if Darnold chooses to stay.
A reserve wideout as a freshman, Burnett emerged as the team’s primary slot receiver last year, catching 56 passes for 622 yards and seven touchdowns. With JuJu declaring for the draft and No. 2 wide receiver Darreus Rogers graduating, Burnett has led all Trojans pass catchers this year with 74 receptions, 975 yards, and nine touchdowns. Before dealing with shoulder and toe injuries in the middle of the season, Burnett opened the year with 33 receptions for 462 yards and five touchdowns through four games, leading all wide receivers with a 91.8 PFF rating for the first month. Built very much like Paul Richardson — except maybe thinner — Burnett is small (6’0″ and 170 pounds) and might not have the athleticism to counterbalance his size, but he’s a 20-year-old Power Five receiver from a program that has sent 15 wideouts to the NFL over the past 15 years. If he declares early, a good combine will put him in the Day 2 conversation; a subpar combine, Day 3.
J.T. Barrett: Quarterback, Ohio State
Barrett has had a legendary (and not altogether easy) college career. A multi-sport top-tier dual-threat quarterback recruit, Barrett tore his ACL as a high school senior and was forced to redshirt his first season at Ohio State. In his second season he beat out Cardale Jones for the backup role and then immediate became the starter as Braxton Miller was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Barrett was fantastic in his first year of action, completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,834 yards, 34 touchdowns, and a 9.8 AY/A and chipping in 938 yards and 11 touchdowns as a runner before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. In his absence, Jones took over for the three final games and led the Buckeyes to a national championship.
Barrett opened 2015 as the backup to Jones, but eventually he worked his way into the starting lineup and has been there since, even with his inconsistencies. Over the past two seasons he has completed 63.0 percent of his passes for 5,483 yards and 59 touchdowns, adding 1,588 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground — but he wasn’t even invited to the Senior Bowl, and he’s not among PFF’s top-14 draft-eligible quarterbacks. Seen as a product of Meyer’s system, the soon-to-be 23-year-old is listed at 6’2″ and 220 pounds: If he hopes to have a real shot of playing quarterback in the NFL, he’ll need to hit those numbers at the combine. There’s speculation that he’s closer to 6’1″ and 210 pounds. As a passer, he looks like a late-round Canada-bound producer who will struggle to translate his game to the NFL. If, however, Barrett is open to switching positions — perhaps to wide receiver à la Miller and Terrelle Pryor — he could become a mid-round selection with a strong pre-draft workout.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
