The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
Belk Bowl: Friday, Dec. 29
To quote Jim impersonating Dwight: “Bears, beets, Belk Bowl.” Nothing says, “It’s Friday afternoon,” like watching Wake Forest (7-5) and Texas A&M (7-5) play at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC.
Christian Kirk: Wide Receiver, Texas A&M
It’s dangerous to compare any player to Stefon Diggs, but if there’s a Diggs in the 2018 draft it’s probably Kirk. A five-star recruit in high school, Kirk was an all-around playmaker with 1,692 yards rushing, 1,187 yards receiving, and 42 scrimmage touchdowns as a senior. He enrolled early at A&M and broke out as a true freshman in 2015, leading the team with 80 receptions, 1,009 yards, and seven touchdowns receiving. The next year he progressed, finishing first on the team with 83 receptions and second with 928 yards and nine touchdowns receiving. As a junior, though, Kirk has had a mediocre season: He’s the team’s dominant receiver, but he has only 58 receptions for 730 yards and seven touchdowns. Due to turmoil at the quarterback position, it’s been a tough year for the Aggies offense.
In fact, there are a number of factors that mitigate Kirk’s respectable but not elite raw production. Each year at A&M he’s had a different starting quarterback, making it hard for him to develop chemistry with his passers. Additionally, he’s been extraordinarily effective as a return man, scoring seven touchdowns in that capacity, and he’s even added 116 yards as a runner. All told, in his first two seasons he averaged 1,013 scrimmage yards and 10.5 all-purpose touchdowns per year: That’s pretty good for an underclassman in the Southeastern Conference. Kirk’s 2017 campaign has been sabotaged in part by drama with the recently departed head coach Kevin Sumlin, and rather than try his luck with new HC Jimbo Fisher and learn a new offensive system, Kirk might declare early for the draft. With average size (5’11” and 200 pounds) but great reported athleticism (4.40-second 40), the 21-year-old will draw the attention of NFL general managers. If Kirk blows up the combine, he’ll be a Day 2 prospect with Day 1 upside à la Will Fuller in 2016 and John Ross in 2017.
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Friday, Dec. 29
North Carolina State (8-4, No. 24) vs. Arizona State (7-5): The alma maters of two giraffe impersonators in Mike Glennon and Brock Osweiler. Held at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX, this one will probably be as exciting as you’d expect it to be.
Jaylen Samuels: Tight End/Fullback, NC State
While NFL teams might not be sure how to use Samuels, one of them is likely to draft him no later than the fourth round. A hybrid player, Samuels regularly moves across the formation and serves a variety of functions: Tight end, slot receiver, fullback, H-back, goal-line back, and sometimes even wideout. He does it all. A versatile prospect, Samuels is in the mold of Kyle Juszczyk, Charles Clay, and Aaron Hernandez as a high-level multidimensional contributor — except he’s built like a workhorse running back (5’11” and 228 pounds) and is a more prolific college producer (2,653 yards and 44 touchdowns from scrimmage over the past three years).
A backup as a freshman, Samuels broke out as a sophomore in 2015, serving as the No. 1 receiver for quarterback Jacoby Brissett and leading the Wolfpack with 65 receptions, 597 yards, and seven touchdowns. In the two seasons since then he’s continued to produce, catching 123 passes for 1,112 yards and 11 touchdowns. On top of that he’s been a highly effective and efficient ball carrier throughout his career, rushing for 1,087 yards and 27 touchdowns on a robust 6.2 yards per attempt. Invited to the Senior Bowl as a fullback, Samuels will probably run drills at several positions as scouts evaluate his skill set and try to figure out how he could be used. A mismatch chess piece, Samuels (I expect) will ultimately be leveraged by an innovative play caller as an early-down fullback and slot receiver with the flexibility to move across the formation and a third-down halfback with the ability to run and catch out of the backfield. If he also turns into a short-yardage rusher with a proclivity for scoring touchdowns, he might become the NFL’s most valuable non-workhorse back.
Kalen Ballage: Running Back, Arizona State
Ballage is a physical freak who was hyped as a future NFL three-down back after his 2016 campaign, but as of now he’s likely nothing more than a late-rounder with sky-high upside. Built like a linebacker (6’3″ and 230 pounds) and blessed with unreal athleticism (outgoing HC Todd Graham has said that he is capable of a 4.40-second 40), Ballage was a backup runner and part-time edge rusher as a true freshman and committee back as a sophomore. Last year as a junior Ballage impressed in waves: Although he managed only 536 yards rushing in a timeshare, he exhibited a David Johnson-esque combination of power running (14 scores) and consistent receiving (44 receptions for 469 yards). In total, Ballage totaled 1,005 yards and 15 touchdowns, looking like a future star: He was a devastating runner out of the wildcat formation, and against Texas Tech he became the first player in history to score eight touchdowns against a Power Five opponent.
This year, though, he has disappointed, accumulating only 738 yards and six touchdowns on 153 carries and 19 receptions as he has once again split the backfield workload. Despite his size and speed, Ballage has averaged just 4.4 yards per carry for his career, and his 44-catch campaign now looks more like an outlier season than a real sign of talent. That Ballage was invited to the Senior Bowl despite his general lack of production speaks to his raw talent. If he indeed proves himself to be an elite athlete at the combine and displays strong pass-catching skills in his pre-draft workouts, he could be drafted as early as the third round as a change-of-pace power back with eventual three-down potential. If his athleticism or receiving skills are average, he could fall out of the draft.
Demario Richard: Running Back, Arizona State
Although Richard hasn’t received the hype of his running mate Ballage, he has easily outproduced him during their four years together at ASU. A four-star recruit, Richard played as the backup to D.J. Foster as a true freshman in 2014, impressing so much with his 634 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 touches that the coaching staff decided in 2015 to move Foster to receiver so Richard could have more playing time. Even with Ballage and Foster stealing touches, Richard as a sophomore led the ASU backfield with 1,407 yards and 10 touchdowns on 210 carries and 31 receptions. Richard regressed as a junior (729 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage) while splitting touches almost evenly with Ballage, but this year he has reclaimed control of the backfield with 1,042 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage — 766 and eight of which have come in the past six games as Richard has separated himself from the committe.
Although he reportedly lacks the athletic splendor of his teammate, Richard has workhorse size (5’10” and 219 pounds), precociousness (he just turned 21 years old), and actual production (3,178 yards over the past three years). It’s possible — even probable — that Richard is more of an NFL-ready prospect than Ballage, but it doesn’t speak well for his future that he wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl. While young runners with good size, production, and receiving ability always have a chance to emerge as NFL contributors, Richard looks like a late-rounder or undrafted free agent barring a strong performance in his pre-draft workouts.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Friday, Dec. 29
Kentucky (7-5) takes on Northwestern (9-3, No. 21) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. Although Northwestern is ranked, there’s only one player on the team of interest.
Justin Jackson: Running Back, Northwestern
Jackson is unlikely ever to be a lead back in the NFL because of his size (5’11” and 200 pounds), but he has potential as a Day 3 prospect on account of his elite production (6,131 yards and 40 touchdowns in 50 games) and top-tier consistency (four seasons of at least 1,350 yards). What makes Jackson particularly intriguing is his pass-catching ability (121 career receptions). If Jackson performs well in East-West Shrine Game practices and pre-draft workouts, he will have a chance to be selected as early as Round 3, but right now the true senior seems likelier to enter the league via Rounds 5-7.
Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: Friday, Dec. 29
If New Mexico State (6-6) against Utah State (6-6) at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, AZ, doesn’t get you excited, nothing in life ever will.
Larry Rose III: Running Back, New Mexico State
Rose is basically the smaller (and small school) version of Jackson. He’s unlikely to be a professional workhorse on account of his size (5’11” and 195 pounds). Rose has been fantastically productive (5,525 yards and 41 touchdowns in 43 games), and he has four seasons of at least 1,000 yards, but he has almost no draft hype and might not even receive a combine invitation. He has potential because of his receiving ability (127 collegiate receptions), but he will be lucky to be anything more than a late-round special teams contributor for at least the first two years of his career — if he has a career.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
