The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
Camping World Bowl: Thursday, Dec. 28
When they are old and gray, at least the young men on the 2017 Virginia Tech (9-3, No. 22) and Oklahoma State (9-3, No. 19) football teams will be able to look back on their lives with pride and remember what they accomplished one December day many years before — playing in the Camping World Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL.
Mason Rudolph: Quarterback, Oklahoma State
There’s not much to dislike about Rudolph except that he plays in a spread offense and hasn’t been quite as good as Baker Mayfield in the Big 12. Otherwise, the 22-year-old looks great. The team intended for Rudolph to redshirt his first year, but he was forced into action as a true freshman due to an injury to starter Daxx Garman. Starting the final three games of the 2014 season, Rudolph did well, passing for 853 yards and six touchdowns to four interceptions. As a sophomore he started every game but split time with senior J.W. Walsh, who was used primarily as a runner and red zone quarterback, ultimately vulturing 26 touchdowns (13 passing, 13 rushing). Rudolph nevertheless still had a productive year, passing for 3,770 yards and 21 touchdowns on his way to 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). In his two final seasons Rudolph did even better as the full-time quarterback, passing for 4,091 yards and 28 touchdowns last year and 4,553 yards and 35 touchdowns this year with elite marks of 10.0 and 10.6 AY/A and chipping in 16 touchdowns as a runner.
As a producer Rudolph has been one of the best in college football over the past two years, and he’s an intriguing prospect because of his prototypical size (6’5″ and 230 pounds) and arm talent. Currently being touted as a Day 2 pick, Rudolph will likely get Day 1 hype if he performs well at the Senior Bowl practices and displays high football intelligence in his pre-draft interviews. Like Patrick Mahomes last year, Rudolph looks like the kind of quarterback prospect who will see his stock appreciate throughout the buildup to the draft. He has an elite Pro Football Focus overall grade of 90.7 and this year received the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award, which is granted to upperclassmen who have excelled as football players, students, citizens, and leaders.
James Washington: Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State
Washington is just the latest in a long line of Big 12 wide receivers to dominate college football before entering the NFL.
- Dede Westbrook: 2016 Biletnikoff winner
- Corey Coleman: 2015 Biletnikoff winner
- Josh Doctson: 2015 Biletnikoff finalist
- Kevin White: 2014 Biletnikoff finalist
- Stedman Bailey: 2012 Biletnikoff finalist
- Terrance Williams: 2012 Biletnikoff finalist
- Justin Blackmon: 2010 & 2011 Biletnikoff winner
- Ryan Broyles: 2010 & 2011 Biletnikoff finalist
- Jordan Shipley: 2009 Biletnikoff finalist
- Michael Crabtree: 2007 & 2008 Biletnikoff winner
- Jeremy Maclin: 2008 Biletnikoff finalist
- Dez Bryant: 2008 Biletnikoff finalist
- Jordy Nelson: 2007 Biletnikoff finalist
Rudolph’s No. 1 pass catcher, Washington has three straight seasons with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving and just won the Biletnikoff award as the nation’s top receiver. Of all the wideouts in college football, the senior has this season’s best combination of yardage and touchdowns with 1,423 and 12 in 12 games. As a true freshman, he led the Cowboys with six touchdowns receiving.
Built like Blackmon (6’1″ and 207 pounds), Washington has good listed size (6’0″ and 205 pounds) and plays a Blackmon-esque role in head coach Mike Gundy’s offense as a yards-after-the-catch monster. Even though Washington isn’t often targeted deep, he’s fifth in the nation with 3.47 yards per route (PFF). Still just 21 years old, Washington is a potential first-rounder and in the running to be the No. 1 wide receiver selected in the draft. He will be one of the most watched players at the Senior Bowl.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Thursday, Dec. 28
This game at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX, should be a good one. Stanford (9-4, No. 13) has the No. 1 running back in college football, and Texas Christian (10-3, No. 15) is No. 1 in defensive rushing success rate (Football Study Hall). This feels like it will be an old-fashioned slobber knocker.
Bryce Love: Running Back, Stanford
Love is one of the best stories of the 2017 college football season. After spending two years as the low-volume and high-efficiency backup to Christian McCaffrey, Love broke out as the starter this year, rushing for 1,387 yards and 11 touchdowns in seven games before suffering an ankle injury. After missing a game, Love played through the injury for the final five contests of the season. He was less efficient, but he still managed 586 yards and six touchdowns during that time. For the season, Love leads all draft-eligible prospects with a 153.1 Elusive Rating (PFF).
The winner of the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top halfback and the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, Love will be an intriguing prospect if he declares early for the draft. He’s precocious at just 20 years of age, and he reportedly ran a fast 4.40-second 40 in high school, but it will be hard for a team to draft him on Day 1 given his small size (5’10” and 196 pounds) and lack of production as a pass catcher (six receptions for 33 yards this year). Love does, however, profile as a strong Day 2 selection on account of his prolific production and big-play ability. No runner in Football Bowl Subdivision history has been as productive as Love (1,973 yards rushing) while also being as efficient (8.3 yards per carry). He’s basically Reggie Bush — except with more rushing production and almost no receiving production. If he displays elite athleticism and strong pass-catching skills in his pre-draft workouts, a team might talk itself into spending a first-round pick on him.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: Thursday, Dec. 28
I don’t know about you, but when I think of the classic bowl games I automatically think about the SDCCUHB. And nothing makes me think “San Diego” quite like Washington State (9-3, No. 18) and Michigan State (9-3, No. 16).
Luke Falk: Quarterback, Washington State
Falk is notable in that he has good size (6’4″ and 223 pounds) and has started 40 games in a Power Five conference, but he has a number of red flags. Although he has a number of Pac-12 passing records, Falk has become less productive and efficient each season he’s been a starter.
- 2015: 4,561 yards passing, 7.7 AY/A
- 2016: 4,468 yards passing, 7.5 AY/A
- 2017: 3,593 yards passing, 6.8 AY/A
Additionally, Falk has limited mobility as evidenced by his career mark of -1.6 yards per carry (including sacks): Falk isn’t good enough as a runner to counterbalance the sacks he takes. On top of that, even though HC Mike Leach’s quarterbacks have historically produced, NFL general managers have rarely shown interest in them because of the perception that they benefit from a stat-inflating system.
It’s possible that some decision makers will like the 23-year-old redshirt senior’s grittiness — he just won the Burlsworth Trophy (over the Heisman-winning Mayfield) for his success as a former walk-on — but his mediocre overall PFF grade of 78.4 highlights his problems. If during Senior Bowl practices he shows that he can implement pro-style concepts then he might be drafted in the first half of Day 2, but he generally looks like other multi-year Pac-12 starters — guys like Matt Barkley, Sean Mannion, and Brett Hundley — who were good enough to be drafted in Rounds 3-5 but have not been good enough to become anything more than NFL backups.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
