The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in the 2017-18 bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Check out the previous installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
- Part 9: Is the NFL Ready for the Youngest Heisman Winner in History?
- Part 10: Saquon Barkley Is the Best RB Prospect of the Past Decade
- Part 11: Derrius Guice Is the “Other” First-Round RB
- Part 12: Baker Mayfield Is the No. 1 QB Prospect
- Part 13: Calvin Ridley Is Not a First-Round WR
College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T: Monday, Jan. 8
A matchup of Southeastern Conference rivals, the CFP title game pits Alabama (12-1, No. 4) against Georgia (13-1, No. 3). Although the Tide are currently -3.5 favorites, the Bulldogs could have something of a home-field advantage, as the game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. While this game should be exciting, there are some who believe its winner will not be the unambiguous champion we would desire of a playoff process.
- Alabama and Georgia both lost to Auburn during the regular season.
- Auburn lost to Central Florida in the Peach Bowl.
- UCF is the only undefeated team left in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
On the one hand, UCF didn’t deserve to be in the CFP. On the other hand, UCF should have been in the CFP — or at the very least it shouldn’t have been matched with Auburn in a bowl game. If UCF were in the CFP, it either would have lost a game or won two games. If it lost, then it would’ve been eliminated as a potential claimant to the title. If it won, then it would’ve proven itself worthy of the championship by beating two great teams — and that would’ve been exciting for everyone to watch. Either way, that would be better than what the CFP has now, which is basically a glorified SEC contest. But, hey, at least this year we get to see an Alabama-Georgia game: It’s been a whole two years since they last played each other.
As for the players: A number of them are likely to be selected with top-100 picks in the 2018 NFL draft. Even with its theoretical warts, this should be a great game.
Nick Chubb: Running Back, Georgia
In 2014, Chubb looked like the No. 1 running back prospect of the 2017 draft — and now most draftniks have him as no higher than the No. 3 back of the 2018 class. That’s what a massive injury, a loathsome timeshare, and an extra year of college will do to a stud running back’s draft stock. Chubb arrived at Georgia in 2014 as the No. 7 running back recruit in the nation, and he immediately became the backup to starter Todd Gurley, who missed four games to suspension and then three more with an ACL tear. In his seven Gurley-less games, Chubb studded it up with 187.6 yards and 1.6 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. For the season he had 1,760 yards and 16 touchdowns, earning SEC Freshman of the Year and being named to the All-SEC first team. He looked like a future NFL superstar.
And then in 2015, after averaging 155.4 yards and 1.6 touchdowns from scrimmage through the first five games of the season, Chubb suffered a grotesque knee injury on the first carry of his sixth game. He didn’t tear his ACL or suffer nerve damage, but he tore his MCL, PCL, and LCL and was done for the year. Chubb returned to action in 2016 — and he was respectable with 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns — but he was far less explosive, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry vs. 7.4 as a freshman and sophomore, and he also found himself in a committee. Desirous to improve his draft stock, Chubb returned to Georgia for a fourth season and has played well. His raw numbers are better than last year’s — 1,351 yards and 15 touchdowns — and he’s rushed for 6.4 yards per carry and been more explosive with 5.7 highlight yards per opportunity vs. 5.4 last year (FSH). Another year removed from his ACL injury, the 22-year-old looks like a Day 2 prospect with maybe the opportunity for a Day 1 selection if he has a strong combine. Chubb has workhorse size (5’10” and 225 pounds), and as a recruit he reportedly had great speed (4.47-second 40). If his injury hasn’t sapped him of his athleticism — and as long as the medical exam at the combine reveals his knee to be sound — Chubb should easily be a top-100 pick. He’s sixth in the nation with a 97.2 Elusive Rating (Pro Football Focus).
In Georgia’s epic 54-48 double-overtime comeback victory over Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, Chubb had 14 rushes for 145 yards and two touchdowns, one a 50-yard tackle-breaking rumble and the other a last-minute game-tying two-yard burst out of the wildcat formation. He looked like a first-rounder.
Sony Michel: Running Back, Georgia
Amazingly, Chubb might not be the best running back at Georgia. Right behind him in Elusive Rating is his teammate Michel (96.0, seventh). Recruited the same year as Chubb, Michel was actually the higher-rated player, arriving at Georgia as the nation’s No. 2 high school back. Behind Gurley and Chubb as a freshman, Michel managed just 516 yards and six touchdowns — most of which came in mop-up duty — but as a sophomore he played as the starter after Chubb’s injury and averaged 122.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns from scrimmage in eight games as the lead back. For the season, he had 1,406 yards and 11 touchdowns. Since then, Michel has played as the change-of-pace and receiving back in a committee with Chubb, averaging 1,107 yards and 11 touchdowns per year over the past two seasons. This year he has 1,225 yards and 17 touchdowns, and for his career he has 89.9 yards and 0.85 touchdowns per game: That’s pretty good for a guy who’s been only a committee back and injury fill-in.
Although Chubb has been the preferred runner at Georgia, it’s possible that Michel could be the superior NFL player. The 22-year-old has lead back size (5’11” and 215 pounds), more receiving production (64 receptions vs. 30 for Chubb), less collegiate wear and tear (576 carries vs. 740), more explosiveness (7.2 highlight yards per opportunity vs. 5.7), and a cleaner medical history. With Kenyan Drake we’ve recently seen an SEC change-of-pace back selected with a top-100 pick have NFL success as a workhorse. Chubb will likely be selected earlier than his running mate, but Michel also looks like at worst a Day 2 pick. It helps a lot that he’s a strong pass protector. Throughout his career, he’s allowed just one sack and no quarterback hits on 150 total pass-blocking snaps (PFF). With his skill set, Michel could be a three-down NFL back.
As good as Chubb was in the Rose Bowl, Michel was better — even with his fourth quarter fumble. With 11 carries and four receptions, he totaled 222 yards and four touchdowns, one of which was an electric 75-yard scamper and the last of which was the 27-yard game-winner. With his virtuosic performance he combined with Chubb to break the all-time teammate rushing record held by the Pony Express since 1982. Eric Dickerson and Craig James combined for 8,192 career rushing yards on 1,565 carries across their four years together at Southern Methodist. Chubb and Michel have 8,259 with 249 fewer carries. In a program that has seen great performance across the decades from Gurley, Herschel Walker, Garrison Hearst, Knowshon Moreno, and a whole bunch of guys from the ’40s and ’50s, neither Chubb nor Michel can reasonably be said to be the best back in school history — but together they might be the greatest running duo in the annals of college football.
Calvin Ridley: Wide Receiver, Alabama
Ridley reportedly plans to declare for the NFL draft, which makes sense: Even though he’s a true junior, he’s already 23 years old, and he entered college as a five-star recruit and the nation’s No. 1 high school wide receiver. He was always going to be at Alabama for just three seasons. Widely expected to be a first-round pick, Ridley looks unlike a lot of successful Day 1 selections from previous seasons. People often compare him to Amari Cooper, but Ridley isn’t highly comparable to the former ‘Bama great. As a freshman Ridley led the team with 89 catches and seven touchdown receptions, and he broke Cooper’s single-season freshman receiving record with 1,045 yards — but Cooper hit 1,000 yards in 14 games as an 18-year-old, whereas Ridley had 15 games to hit his mark, and he turned 21 at the end of his freshman season. When Cooper was 21, he was in the NFL. Ridley’s first season wasn’t bad — he captured a solid 30.7 and 31.8 percent of the Tide’s yards and touchdowns receiving — but it wasn’t an epic campaign considering Ridley’s age.
Since that first season, Ridley doesn’t seem to have improved much (if at all). Last year he had just 72 receptions for 769 yards and seven touchdowns receiving (plus 21 yards and a touchdown rushing) — again, in 15 games — and his market share dropped to 24.4 and 26.9 percent of the receiving yards and touchdowns. This year he has 59 receptions for 935 yards and four touchdowns. While his receiving average (15.8 yards per catch) and market share of yards (36.2 percent) are the highest marks of his career, his 16.0 percent of touchdowns receiving is abominable for any type of wide receiver prospect, much less a probable first-rounder. Because of his small-ish size (6’1″ and 190 pounds), Ridley will need to display good athleticism in his pre-draft workouts to justify his draft hype, and although he is said to have good speed — he reportedly had a 4.35-second 40 in 2016 spring practices — it’s not uncommon for players to underperform their previously reported (read: misleading) times.
When Alabama lost to Auburn this year, Ridley spent much of the game defended by cornerback Carlton Davis, a potential first-rounder who was named to the All-SEC first team. Ridley had just three receptions for 38 yards and no touchdowns. Next to other first-rounders — be they wide receivers for comparison or defensive backs for competition — Ridley is yet to look like a first-rounder. These might be my famous last words, but Ridley isn’t worthy of being a first-round wide receiver. Against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, Ridley had four receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown. That’s not too exciting. Maybe he’ll show more against Georgia.
Damien Harris: Running Back, Alabama
Next in a line of ‘Bama backs — Derrick Henry (2016 draft, 2.45), Drake (2016, 3.73), T.J. Yeldon (2015, 2.36), Eddie Lacy (2013, 2.61), Trent Richardson (2012, 1.03), Mark Ingram (2011, 1.28), and Glen Coffee (2009, 3.74) — Harris entered college as a five-star recruit and the top high school running back in the country. As a freshman Harris was the third-string back behind Henry and Drake, rushing for only 157 yards and a touchdown and adding four receptions for 13 yards. As a sophomore, with Henry and Drake gone, Harris played as the nominal lead back in a committee, rushing for 1,037 yards and adding 14 receptions for 99 yards but scoring just four total touchdowns as he lost touches near the goal line. This year Harris is in a near-even timeshare with only 129 carries and 10 receptions, but he has still produced with 1,053 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage.
What’s encouraging about Harris is that he’s noticeably improved throughout college. NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah sees Harris as a back who “does everything well,” and an SEC area scout told NFL analyst Lance Zierlein that Harris has “really committed himself to put in the work in the offseason,” and that is seen in the numbers. As a freshman, Harris averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, but last year that number jumped to 7.1; this year, 7.6. He’s been an explosive runner over the past two years despite having a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who doesn’t challenge defenses with the passing game. Last season, Harris had 7.5 highlight yards per opportunity; this season, 8.2. For comparison, No. 1 running back Saquon Barkley this year before his bowl game had 7.7 highlight yards per opportunity and 8.2 last year. Not yet 21 years old and built like a workhorse (5’11” and 212 pounds), Harris is second among all FBS backs with an Elusive Rating of 116.4 (PFF), second only to Stanford’s Bryce Love, who won the Doak Walker Award. A Day 2 prospect, Harris could sneak into Day 1 with excellent pre-draft workouts — assuming he declares early for the 2018 draft.
Bo Scarbrough: Running Back, Alabama
As is always the case, Alabama is deep at running back. A 21-year-old redshirt junior, Scarbrough has been in a committee with Harris for the past two seasons. Last year he was arguably the more important member of the timeshare, rushing 125 times for 812 yards and 11 touchdowns. Entering the 2017 season, Scarbrough was generally thought of as the superior NFL prospect, given that he was powerful enough to be the goal-line back and explosive enough still to average 7.2 highlight yards per opportunity the prior year — but he has regressed this year. Despite having 136 touches to Harris’ 139, he has 372 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns than his teammate, and he is far less explosive with just 4.5 highlight yards per opportunity. Scarbrough reportedly intends to declare early for the draft, but he’s averaged just 54.0 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game since 2016. That kind of production tends not to inspire a lot of NFL teams — but Scarbrough has workhorse size (6’2″ and 235 pounds), and he’s an Alabama back who entered college as a five-star recruit. If he’s in the 2018 draft, some team will pick him, probably on Day 3 but maybe on Day 2 if he has a big performance against Georgia and tests well at the combine.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
