The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
- Part 9: Is the NFL Ready for the Youngest Heisman Winner in History?
- Part 10: Saquon Barkley Is the Best RB Prospect of the Past Decade
- Part 11: Derrius Guice Is the “Other” First-Round RB
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: Monday, Jan. 1
The first of the College Football Playoff semifinals, this game is unsurprisingly loaded with top-tier draft-eligible crotch-grabbin’ talent. Just like the club. Oklahoma (12-1, No. 2) vs. Georgia (12-1, No. 3) at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA: Let’s pound it.
Baker Mayfield: Quarterback, Oklahoma
If all that mattered in prospect evaluation were college production, the 2017 Heisman winner would easily be the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. OU’s passing attack ranks first in both Passing S&P+ and success rate (Football Study Hall). Mayfield is the only player in the 14-year history of ESPN’s Total QBR metric with two seasons above 90.0. A four-year starter, Mayfield in his three final seasons has an absurdly elite mark of 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) — and he’s improved each season, posting a 6.8 AY/A as a freshman, 9.4 as a sophomore, and 12.3 and 13.4 as a junior and senior. With a 96.2 overall grade, Mayfield is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 offensive player in college football, ranking first with an 82.6 percent adjusted completion rate, 134.8 passer rating on throws of 20-plus yards, and 105.3 passer rating under pressure.
Production, though, is not all that matters, and a number of draftniks dislike Mayfield for a variety of legitimate reasons.
- Small size: He’s listed at 6’1″ and 220 pounds.
- Offensive system: He plays in a spread offense, so he perhaps has inflated stats and is less ready for the NFL than he would be if he had been in a ‘pro-style’ system.
- Bad attitude: He was suspended (for two plays . . .) and stripped of his captaincy late this season because of his Kansas-directed profanity-fueled crotch-driven sideline tirade.
- High-maintenance personality: He caused intraconference drama by disparaging the Texas Tech coaching staff after he transferred to OU (without even telling then-head coach Bob Stoops that he was coming). He had to sit out the 2014 season (per NCAA rules) and he lost a year of eligibility (per Big 12 rules), which he got back only after OU went to the mattresses for him and got the Big 12 to adopt the “Baker Mayfield Rule,” which allows walk-ons without a written scholarship offer to transfer within the conference without losing a year of eligibility. That the guy has a freaking rule named after him suggests how high maintenance he is.
- Probable immaturity: In February 2017, Mayfield was arrested in Arkansas and charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct, and fleeing and resisting arrest. OU ordered Mayfield to do 35 hours of community service and to complete an alcohol education program.
It’s not entirely unreasonable for evaluators to look at Mayfield, see an undersized spread-system high-maintenance Heisman-winning passer with a potential alcohol problem, and think, “Why would anyone spend a first-round pick on the next Johnny Manziel?”
The Manziel comparison, though, is unfair. Manziel was smaller (6’0″ and 207 pounds) and more of a run-happy quarterback (2,169 yards in two seasons vs. 1,082 in four for Mayfield). Mayfield is mobile enough to navigate the pocket and scramble when needed, but he’s above all a passer. Whereas Manziel was reckless (22 interceptions in two years), Mayfield protects the ball (only 20 picks in three seasons at OU). Although he’s similar to Manziel in some ways, as a prospect he’s much more similar to Russell Wilson on the basis of his size, passing production, mobility, and even his transfer from one school to another.
It seems likely that an NFL team will select Mayfield in the first round — especially if OU wins the national championship. General managers love guys with the ‘winner’ moniker. And some decision makers might like Mayfield’s grittiness: Even though he was just a three-star recruit, at Tech he became the first true freshman walk-on quarterback in Football Bowl Subdivision history to start a season-opener — and then at OU he had to walk on again and win the starting job. Everything he’s gotten, he’s earned. Most top-tier quarterbacks don’t go to the Senior Bowl: There’s nothing for them to gain in attending the event — but Mayfield will be there because “he’s a competitor” (so the narrative will go).
It’s hard to evaluate the quarterback position: The sample of subjects is small, the data set is limited, and the representativeness and predictiveness of many metrics is unknown. Based on the numbers and the degree to which he is comparable to previous prospects who have had NFL success, Mayfield is my No. 1 quarterback in the 2018 draft, but I could easily be wrong. I expect him to be drafted no later than the second round, and if he’s paired with an offensive coordinator or play caller who isn’t awful I expect him to be a viable (if not desirable) fantasy quarterback no later than his second season. There are some football people who dislike Mayfield because of his average arm strength, happy feet, and reported inability to read a defense. I’m not ignoring these evaluations: I’m just not sure they’re accurate, and I’m not sure how much those potential deficiencies matter.
Mark Andrews: Tight End, Oklahoma
Over the last two years the NFL has been lucky to see several top-tier tight end prospects enter the league.
- 2017 (1.19): O.J. Howard, Alabama
- 2017 (1.23): Evan Engram, Mississippi
- 2017 (1.29): David Njoku, Miami (FL)
- 2016 (2.35): Hunter Henry, Arkansas
He hasn’t announced yet if he intends to declare early for the draft, but Andrews could be the next tight end to enter the NFL as a top-40 pick. A four-star wide receiver recruit, Andrews redshirted in 2014 as he changed positions, but in his first year of action he immediately made an impact as a red zone weapon, finishing second on the team with seven receiving touchdowns (behind No. 1 wide receiver Sterling Shepard) even though he had only 19 receptions. The next year he progressed within the offense: He again finished second with seven touchdowns receiving (behind No. 1 wide receiver Dede Westbrook), and he also finished third with 489 yards and fourth with 31 receptions. With Shepard, Westbrook, and pass-catching running back Joe Mixon all in the NFL this year, Andrews has broken out, leading all Sooners pass catchers with 58 receptions and eight touchdowns and placing second with 906 yards.
And those numbers don’t begin to convey how he has dominated the position this year. He has almost 300 yards receiving more than the No. 2 tight end, and he leads all tight ends with his 2.78 yards per route (PFF). He’s caught all nine of his catchable targets of 20-plus yards, and he leads all FBS draft-eligible tight ends with 3.24 yards per route from the slot. A smooth route runner with good size (6’5″ and 254 pounds) and the ability to line up all over the formation as a mismatch player, Andrews won this year’s John Mackey Award, which is given to college football’s most outstanding tight end. He’s probably not a freak athlete in the mold of Howard, Engram, and Njoku, but like Henry — the 2015 Mackey recipient — he’s an all-around beast. Only a late-season injury or unspeakably poor combine could cause him to drop past Day 2, and he could be selected on Day 1.
Nick Chubb: Running Back, Georgia
In 2014, Chubb looked like the No. 1 running back prospect of the 2017 draft — and now most draftniks have him as no higher than the No. 3 back of the 2018 class. That’s what a massive injury, a loathsome timeshare, and an extra year of college will do to a stud running back’s draft stock. Chubb arrived at Georgia in 2014 as the No. 7 running back recruit in the nation, and he immediately became the backup to starter Todd Gurley, who missed four games to suspension and then three more with an ACL tear. In his seven Gurley-less games, Chubb studded it up with 187.6 yards and 1.6 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. For the season he had 1,760 yards and 16 touchdowns, earning Southeastern Conference Freshman of the Year and being named to the All-SEC first team. He looked like a future NFL superstar.
And then in 2015, after averaging 155.4 yards and 1.6 touchdowns from scrimmage through the first five games of the season, Chubb suffered a grotesque knee injury on the first carry of his sixth game. He didn’t tear his ACL or suffer nerve damage, but he tore his MCL, PCL, and LCL and was done for the year. Chubb returned to action in 2016 — and he was respectable with 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns — but he was far less explosive, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry vs. 7.4 as a freshman and sophomore, and he also found himself in a committee. Desirous to improve his draft stock, Chubb returned to Georgia for a fourth season and has played well. His raw numbers are similar to last year’s — 1,206 yards and 13 touchdowns — but he’s rushed for 6.2 yards per carry and has been more explosive with 5.7 highlight yards per opportunity vs. 5.4 last year (FSH). Another year removed from his ACL injury, the 22-year-old looks like a Day 2 prospect with maybe the opportunity to be selected on Day 1 with a strong combine. Chubb has workhorse size (5’10” and 225 pounds), and as a recruit he reportedly had great speed (4.47-second 40). If his injury hasn’t sapped him of his athleticism — and as long as the medical exam at the combine reveals his knee to be sound — Chubb should easily be a top-100 pick. He’s sixth in the nation with a 97.2 Elusive Rating (PFF).
Sony Michel: Running Back, Georgia
Amazingly, Chubb might not be the best running back at Georgia. Right behind him in Elusive Rating is his teammate Michel (96.0, seventh). Recruited the same year as Chubb, Michel was actually the higher-rated player, arriving at Georgia as the nation’s No. 2 high school back. Behind Gurley and Chubb as a freshman, Michel managed just 516 yards and six touchdowns — most of which came in mop-up duty — but as a sophomore he played as the starter after Chubb’s injury and averaged 122.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns from scrimmage in his eight games as the lead back. For the season, he had 1,406 yards and 11 touchdowns. Since then, Michel has played as the change-of-pace and receiving back in a committee with Chubb, averaging 996 yards and nine touchdowns per year over the past two seasons. This year he has 1,003 yards and 13 touchdowns, and for his career he has 87.0 yards and 0.78 touchdowns per game: That’s pretty good for a guy who’s been only a committee back and injury fill-in.
Although Chubb has been the preferred runner at Georgia, it’s possible that Michel could be the superior NFL player. The 22-year-old has lead back size (5’11” and 215 pounds), more receiving production (60 receptions vs. 30 for Chubb), less collegiate wear and tear (565 carries vs. 726), more explosiveness (7.2 highlight yards per opportunity vs. 5.7), and a cleaner medical history. With Kenyan Drake we’ve recently seen a top-100 draft pick who was ‘just’ an SEC change-of-pace back have NFL success as a workhorse. Chubb will likely be selected earlier than his running mate, but Michel also looks like a Day 2 pick. It helps a lot that he’s a strong pass protector. Throughout his career, he’s allowed just one sack and no quarterback hits on 150 total pass-blocking snaps (PFF). With his skill set, Michel could be a three-down NFL back.
——
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
