The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
- Part 9: Is the NFL Ready for the Youngest Heisman Winner in History?
- Part 10: Saquon Barkley Is the Best RB Prospect of the Past Decade
Outback Bowl: Monday, Jan. 1
I don’t know about you, but whenever I’m hungover on New Year’s Day there’s nothing I love more than watching two unranked teams with almost no notable draft-eligible prospects play football. Thankfully, that’s what Michigan (8-4) and South Carolina (8-4) are going to give us.
Hayden Hurst: Tight End, South Carolina
A 24-year-old true junior, Hurst is a difficult prospect to evaluate. Selected in the 17th round of the 2012 Major League Baseball draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Hurst spent 2013 and 2014 toiling away in the minor leagues before deciding to return to football, which he had played in high school. Hurst enrolled at South Carolina in 2015 and joined the Gamecocks as a 22-year-old walk on. As a freshman he played primarily on special teams and caught only eight passes, but as a sophomore he was named a captain and became a core part of the passing offense, finishing second on the team with 48 receptions and 616 yards and breaking positional school records with those marks. This year he has once again been featured, ranking second with 41 receptions and 518 yards and even chipping in seven rushes for 36 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t been much of a scorer with just three receiving touchdowns in three years, but he was an All-SEC first-teamer this year, and he has the size (6’5″ and 250 pounds) to be a red zone threat in the NFL. Vastly older than most prospects, Hurst declared for the draft in November and is currently projected as a Day 3 player with Day 2 upside if he impresses in his pre-draft workouts.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Monday, Jan. 1
The third of the New Year’s Six, this game might be my favorite of the entire bowl slate. Auburn (10-3) is the only team this year to beat Alabama (the odds-on favorite at +150 to win the College Football Playoff), and Central Florida (12-0) is the only team still undefeated in the Football Bowl Subdivision. On the one hand, it’s hard to disagree with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia as the four playoff teams. On the other hand, what’s the point of having playoffs if the only team to give the best team a loss and the only team yet to lose aren’t able to compete for a national championship?
Also, why — why?! — would college football highlight the inadequacies of a four-game playoff by pitting these two teams against each other? Imagine this: Alabama wins the national championship, and UCF beats Auburn. In this scenario, the No. 1 team would’ve lost one game — and the team that beat them would’ve lost to the only team in football not to lose at all. By the power of the transitive law, UCF would have a sound argument for being the best team in the country. At a minimum, no one could ever tell them definitively that they weren’t the best team. #HotTaekAlert: If at the end of each college season there’s an undefeated team that didn’t participate in the playoffs, the selection committee didn’t do its job. It’s better to keep one random deserving team from the playoffs for one year than to give another random undefeated team the right for decades to say that they were actually the best team in college football and weren’t given the chance to prove it.
Tre’Quan Smith: Wide Receiver, Central Florida
Smith is the type of receiver I tend to like more than most draft analysts. He’s received so little hype that I expect him to be a Day 3 prospect, but he has significant Day 2 potential. A redshirt junior, Smith is probably not a strong athlete — he was ‘only’ a three-star recruit — but with his size (6’1″ and 210 pounds) and style of play he might be able to succeed in the NFL with average (a.k.a. Davante Adams-esque) athleticism. Smith is yet to declare for the draft, but with head coach Scott Frost leaving UCF for Nebraska after the bowl game Smith might decide to leave early for the NFL.
After redshirting in 2014, Smith emerged as the team’s top pass catcher in 2015 thanks to the early departure of No. 1 wide receiver and future first-rounder Breshad Perriman. Although the Knights were awful, going 0-12 and finishing with one of the worst offenses in football, Smith led the team with 52 receptions, 724 yards, and four touchdowns, capturing 32.2 and 30.8 percent of the receiving yards and touchdowns — strong numbers for a first-year player. He progressed in 2016 (Frost’s first season at UCF) with 57 receptions, 853 yards, and five touchdowns, and this year he’s turned into one of the most dominant receivers in the country: He’s sixth among all FBS receivers with a 143.5 pass rating when targeted (Pro Football Focus), and he’s caught 73.0 percent of his targets for 54 receptions, 1,082 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He’s even chipped in five rushes for 23 yards and a touchdown. With a strong combine he could be drafted as high as the second round. If selected in the middle rounds, he might still produce like a second-rounder.
Kerryon Johnson: Running Back, Auburn
A top-five running back recruit, Johnson led his team to three straight state titles in high school and was Alabama’s Mr. Football as a senior. He played immediately as a true freshman, serving as a change-of-pace and passing-down back behind Peyton Barber and Jovon Robinson, and as a sophomore he played the speed back role in a timeshare with the between-the-tackles grinder Kamryn Pettway, rushing for 895 yards and 11 touchdowns and adding 17 receptions for 125 yards. This year, though, Pettway (shoulder) has missed eight games due to injury, and he won’t be active for the bowl game. In his absence, Johnson has beasted — even though he’s dealt with his own injuries (ribs, shoulder) — rushing for 1,320 yards and 17 touchdowns on the season, adding 23 receptions for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Despite being in a timeshare for large parts of the past two years, Johnson has averaged 109.9 yards and 1.3 touchdowns from scrimmage per game over that time.
While the junior hasn’t indicated yet if he intends to declare for the draft, he’d be wise to do so. Stud Southeastern Conference backs hardly ever see more than three years of college action, and Johnson’s draft stock can’t get much higher than it is now — but it could get a lot lower if next year he were to suffer an injury or Pettway were to relegate him to a timeshare (which is entirely possible). Just 20 years old, Johnson is a strong Day 2 prospect with good size (6’0″ and 212 pounds) and feature back potential. With his patience, vision, and balance, Johnson has been compared by NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah (and others) to a smaller (and less-used) Le’Veon Bell. While Johnson isn’t a prolific receiver, he played well in the passing game this year, finishing as the No. 8 FBS back with a 98.7 pass-blocking efficiency grade (PFF). He has three-down NFL ability.
Citrus Bowl presented by Overton’s: Monday, Jan. 1
Anytime you can hold multiple bowl games at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL, you pretty much must. For those watching Notre Dame (9-3, No. 14) and Louisiana State (9-3, No. 17) with an eye on draft-eligible prospects, this game is all about the running backs.
Josh Adams: Running Back, Notre Dame
In what is considered a loaded running back class, Adams could go overlooked if he declares for the draft. After backing up C.J. Prosise for the first half of his true freshman season, Adams closed out 2015 as the starter when Prosise suffered a concussion and sprained ankle, averaging 120.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns from scrimmage across the five final games. Following Prosise’s departure to the NFL, Adams played as the lead back in 2016, but the offense — ‘led’ by quarterback DeShone Kizer — was just 53rd (of 128 FBS teams) in scoring, and Adams frequently saw his potential goal-line touches vultured by Kizer. Even so, Adams was productive with 1,126 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage.
This year, with a new quarterback and a run-first offense, Adams has fully returned to form as the lead back, averaging 122.3 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. A powerful runner with great size (6’2″ and 225 pounds), Adams this year is second in the country with 5.2 yards after contact per attempt and fourth with a 107.0 Elusive Rating (PFF). Per Football Study Hall, Adams has balled out with 10.6 highlight yards per opportunity. For context, before his bowl game Saquon Barkley had 7.7. As a three-star recruit, Adams reportedly ran a 4.5-second 40. If he approaches that time in his pre-draft workouts, Adams could end up a Day 2 pick — assuming that his medical history checks out: He tore his ACL in high school, and some teams could (perhaps wrongly) move him down their draft board as a result.
Derrius Guice: Running Back, LSU
When Guice got to Baton Rouge in 2015, he was a five-star recruit and the No. 2 high school back in the country. When he leaves — whether that’s this year or next — he’ll be a Day 1 prospect. As a true freshman he played behind stud running back Leonard Fournette, but as a sophomore he actually led LSU with 183 carries for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, as Fournette (ankle) missed five games and struggled through much of the season with an injury. In his six 2016 games as the lead back, Guice averaged a studly 178.7 yards and 2.2 touchdowns from scrimmage. With Fournette’s early exit for the NFL, Guice this year has again led the backfield, rushing for 1,152 yards and 11 touchdowns and adding 15 receptions for 100 yards. While his production this season isn’t as strong as it was last year, Guice (knee) has played through injuries and missed a game, and LSU has still been sixth overall in Rushing S&P+ and success rate (FSH). He’s had a good campaign.
Although Guice hasn’t given any indication as to whether he plans to declare early for the draft, he seems likely to do so: The 20-year-old workhorse is already expected to be a first-rounder by many draftniks — perhaps even a top-15 pick — and there’s nothing he can do in school next year to improve his draft stock. Blessed with great size (5’11” and 218 pounds), speed (4.35-second 40 time, reportedly), and power (1,636 of his 2,983 rushing yards have come after initial contact, per PFF), Guice looks like a future NFL lead back. He’s not Barkley, but he’s still one of the best running back prospects of the past five years.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
