The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
- Part 9: Is the NFL Ready for the Youngest Heisman Winner in History?
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 30
The second of the New Year’s Six, this game features a couple of two-loss top-12 teams in Washington (10-2, No. 11) and Penn State (10-2, No. 9). Like the wars of yore, this game will be won or lost on the ground. The Huskies are No. 1 in the nation with just 92.3 rushing yards allowed per game. As for the Nittany Lions — they have a pretty good running back.
Saquon Barkley: Running Back, Penn State
A 20-year-old true junior with lead back size (5’11” and 230 pounds), Barkley is the backfield star of the 2018 draft — assuming that he declares early. A four-star recruit from Pennsylvania, Barkley was seemingly destined to wear white and blue and truck defenders, which he’s been doing ever since he arrived on campus. In 2015 he did his best to help Christian Hackenberg try to look competent by giving Penn State its first legitimate workhorse in a half decade, rushing for 1,076 yards and seven touchdowns and adding 20 receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown. In the two years since then, he’s probably been the best back in college football.
- 2016 (14 games): 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns rushing, 28 receptions for 402 yards and four touchdowns
- 2017 (12 games): 1,134 yards and 16 touchdowns rushing, 47 receptions for 594 yards and three touchdowns, 15 kick returns for 426 yards and two touchdowns
Each year Barkley has progressed. As a sophomore, he showed that he could handle a full workload, earning 300 touches in a breakout campaign. This year he has advanced in the passing game: He is only four receptions off the team lead, and he’s first among all Football Bowl Subdivision running backs in receiving yardage. Additionally, he has substantially improved as a pass protector: His 86.2 Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade is fifth among FBS backs. Barkley is a complete three-down player, and as his two return touchdowns highlight he has the agility and speed to break long plays whenever he touches the ball. Over the past three seasons he has forced 194 missed tackles (PFF), one of the highest marks in the country,
It’s unclear if any team picking in the top 10 of the 2018 draft is willing to use a first-rounder on a running back, but Barkley as a prospect is no less impressive than Leonard Fournette (2017, 1.04), Christian McCaffrey (2017, 1.08), Ezekiel Elliott (2016, 1.04), and Todd Gurley (2015, 1.10) were. In fact, he’s more impressive than all of them: He’s a better receiver than Fournette and bigger than McCaffrey. Unlike Zeke, he produced as a freshman. Unlike Gurley, he’s not entering the NFL fresh off an ACL tear. Based on his age, size, and production, Barkley is the best pre-combine running back prospect of the past decade. Even if he has a poor combine, Barkley is almost a stone-cold lock to be a first-rounder, and in dynasty leagues he is without question the No. 1 pick in rookie drafts: To borrow from Mark Twain, the difference between Barkley and the No. 2 pick is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug. Next to Barkley, all other 2018 prospects are fantasy insects.
Mike Gesicki: Tight End, Penn State
Rarely is it a positive expected value move to write about a tight end, but here we are. A 22-year-old senior, Gesicki holds the Penn State record for most receptions by a tight end. A backup for his first two years, Gesicki in 2016 became a major part of Penn State’s passing offense, functioning as the No. 2 option behind wide receiver Chris Godwin, finishing with 48 receptions for 679 yards and five touchdowns and ranking second among all FBS tight ends with 301 yards on targets of 20-plus yards (PFF). Following Godwin’s early departure to the NFL, Gesicki this year has led the Nittany Lions with 51 receptions and nine touchdowns receiving. A red zone presence with ample size (6’6″ and 250 pounds), Gesicki has captured 30.0 percent of Penn State’s receiving touchdowns this year. A Senior Bowl invitee, Gesicki has gotten some recent hype as a potential third-round prospect.
Myles Gaskin: Running Back, Washington
Gaskin is a Day 3 prospect with Day 2 ability. If not for his size (5’10” and 191 pounds), people would talk about the 20-year-old true junior as if he were one of the top backs in the draft. As a freshman he sent Dwayne Washington to the bench and rushed for 1,302 yards and 14 touchdowns. In the two years since then, he’s averaged 1,510 yards and 16.5 touchdowns from scrimmage per season. A competent pass catcher (43 career receptions), Gaskin will likely be nothing more than a change-of-pace and third-down back in the NFL, but he has the potential to produce in a limited role: His 76.9 elusive rating is fourth among draft-eligible backs with at least 200 carries (PFF). With a good combine, Gaskin might be drafted as early as the third round.
Dante Pettis: Wide Receiver/Punt Returner, Washington
In 2017 the Cowboys used a fourth-round pick on Ryan Switzer so he could return punts and kicks and sit on the bench as a depth receiver. If Switzer’s draft position is indicative of how the larger NFL market values players, Pettis could be selected as high as the second round: He’s an All-American returner with an NCAA-record nine career punt return touchdowns. On top of that, over the past two years he has 1,543 yards and 22 touchdowns as a receiver (and 50 yards as a runner — and 125 yards and a touchdown as a passer). Pettis is functional enough to be an outside receiver with his size (6’1″ and 195 pounds), and this year he has easily led all Huskies pass catchers with 62 receptions, 721 yards, and seven touchdowns. Since 2016, Pettis has captured 25 and 34.4 percent of Washington’s receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s perhaps the best collegiate return man of all time — but he’s not just a returner.
Some general manager will probably like that the Pettis family already has ties to professional sports (his father, Gary, is a former MLB player and the current third base coach for the Astros; his cousin Austin is a former NFL wide receiver), and Dante — like his UW running mate John Ross last year — might burn up the combine. At the 2016 ‘Huskies Combine’ Pettis ran a 4.39-second 40 and led the team with a 41.0-inch vertical jump. If the 22-year-old senior balls out in his pre-draft workouts, he’ll be a legitimate Day 2 prospect. Also, with his volatility and big-play potential, Pettis is the type of player who one day will win someone a million dollars with a multi-touchdown performance at almost no ownership. I’m just saying this now: When he gets to the NFL, use our Lineup Builder to stack him with his defense. Gotta get that double dip.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
