It was a great week in New York as Bryson DeChambeau took home the U.S. Open championship in impressive fashion, ultimately winning by six shots. Naturally, we now transition from the first major of the 2020-2021 season to a more traditional fall golf field at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in the Dominican Republic.
The field and odds market is led by a player who doesn’t have PGA Tour status, Will Zalatoris, but had an impressive outing at the U.S. Open last week finishing in a tie for sixth with Dustin Johnson. About a dozen others from last week’s major field will join Zalatoris in the Dominican Republic, but it will not feature any of the top 50 in the current official world golf rankings. Last year’s champion of this tournament, Graeme McDowell, will return to defend his title.
The Course
This will be the third year the event has been held at the Puntacana Resort & Club on the Corales Course, but the past versions have been held in the spring. The course is a 7,666 yard Par 72, quite a change from the similar sized Par 70 at Winged Foot last week. Each of the past two years have seen champions crowned with 18-under par scores, leading us back to more of a low scoring event.
The scoring opportunities on the Corales Course come through four Par 5s that have played as four of the easiest holes in each year of this tournament. Two of those holes play over 620 yards, but being a coastal course, wind is often a factor in allowing players to reach all of these holes in two.
The Par 3s are much of the teeth of the course as they each rank towards the top half in hole difficulty through two years, and understandably so, as they each play over 200 yards in length. The 265 yard 11th annually plays as the hardest hole on the course, averaging nearly a quarter stroke over par across the four days.
Key Stats
Key stats are a bit unique this week as although we have some course history here, shotlink has never been available in the two years they have played, leaving us without strokes gained data from the event. Since we don’t have strokes gained data, we will work from a more traditional stat set and the things we know to be impactful week in and week out. Listed below are the key stats I will use to generate my plays this week.
- Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
- Strokes Gained Ball Striking
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Par 5
- Strokes Gained: Par 3 (200 yards +)
DFS Picks
Will Zalatoris ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel)
It is extremely odd to see a Korn Ferry Tour player sitting as the highest price golfer and as the one at or near the top of the odds market for a PGA Tour tournament, but you know, 2020. This is an unprecedented year in golf that has held Will Zalatoris back from having the chance to earn his TOUR card, but also gave him an opportunity to be in last week’s U.S. Open. He took full advantage remarkably finishing tied for sixth.
Zalatoris was able to show he belonged and that his success on the KFT, will translate into what could be a great future for him on the PGA Tour. He finished seventh in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green last week and eighth in strokes gained approach. He came into that hitting an absurd 81% of his greens in regulation at Korn Ferry events, and seamlessly carried it over to a U.S. Open. I love the fact that he still has something to prove and something to play for this week in the Dominican Republic. He’s definitely the shiny new toy for DFS players this week, but it appears to be for good reason and the price may scare a few off.
Sam Burns ($10,100 DK/$11,600 FD)
Sam Burns had a strong close to last season, and that propelled him out of the gates in the first event of the new season at the Safeway Open. He would ultimately squander his 36 hole lead, but still finish in a tie for seventh place. The former LSU Tiger turned pro in 2017, and is still seeking his first win on TOUR. He has now been in contention a number of times, and I believe is primed for a breakthrough.
Burns has shown a propensity to do well at lower scoring events, and was 46th last season in Birdie or Better Percentage. I’m encouraged by the consistency he has shown with his tee-to-green play and ball striking since the break, which has him in the top 10 in the field in those categories. I’ll be firing up burns in my lineups this week as I believe he has the upside to win an event like this.
Thomas Detry ($9,400 DK/$9,900 FD)
We haven’t seen Thomas Detry play much in the states (though he’s not playing there this week either) and I am hoping that will work to an ownership advantage as we build lineups this week. Detry, has been great on the European Tour as he has four Top 10s this season, including two 2nd place finishes in his last five events. He also had the opportunity to play the U.S. Open last week and was able to make it through to the weekend, which is no small feat in that field.
The Belgian is known for being a long hitter, and that should play to his advantage at Corales where his length will make these longer Par 5s more accessible. Like Burns, he seems to be a better fit at tournaments with low scoring as both of his second place finishes in Europe were tournaments where he was the runner-up at 16 and 17-under par respectively. He is far too discounted on FanDuel, but I will also fire him up on DraftKings as I think a top-5 is well within his range of outcomes in this field.
Xinjun Zhang ($8,400 DK/$9,500 FD)
We’ve reached a portion of the field where we start to realize that this field is fairly weak just simply by who is priced above average. That is no shot at Xinjun Zhang, but more a reality as he’s been priced at or under $7,000 on DraftKings in each of the last 11 events he has played.
Zhang is a GPP play only as he has shown that when he is on he can Top 10 in any field, like he did at the Memorial, but when he’s off it’s a missed cut. He played well at the Safeway a couple of weeks ago where he finished 14th, and really had his game gaining 5.8 strokes tee-to-green. He’s also a scorer that can fit well on this course as he finished 30th on TOUR in Birdie or Better Percentage, and had a T5 at this event in 2018.
It’s early on Tuesday, but I’ve already seen momentum for Adam Schenk, who also rates well for me, but if he is going to be chalk, Zhang will be a pivot I’ll be excited to transition to this week.
Jhonnatan Vegas ($7,700 DK/$9,800 FD)
My next two plays are are separated by just $100 on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel. They are similar players, who always drive it well, but if they have their irons their skill in a field like this could lead to a Top 10 or better.
Jhonny Vegas is a three-time winner on TOUR and while last season was sub-par for a guy of his talent, he has started to show some life. He got his feet wet in the new year at the Safeway and returns to Corales where he finished in a tie for 26th last year. Long term, Vegas is simply one of the better players in this field, ranking eighth in my model over the last 50 rounds, and $7,700 is just too cheap on DraftKings for that upside. I’ll take that long term skill value and hope it all comes together again this week.
Will Gordon ($7,600 DK/$8,400 FD)
If you are starting to see a theme in my picks this week, you are right, I am expecting a young player to find their breakthrough. Will Gordon came out of the COVID break hot with a third place finish at the Travelers, but his play stalled a bit down the stretch of last season. I like him in a low scoring event like this where he can use his length to his advantage and he is one of the best raw talents in this field. He’s a play on DK, but he’s a steal on FD.
J.J. Spaun ($7,000 DK/$8,600 FD)
I remember back in the spring when we all got a bit excited during the TOUR break due to COVID that J.J. Spaun was firing it up on the Outlaw Tour. He then had us all very concerned for his game as he was unable to have success in those events, which carried into missed cuts in the return.
Spaun has always been a streaky player that I usually miss when he plays well seemingly out of the blue, but I like to quickly jump back on board knowing he’s likely to go on a run of good golf. This is the exact scenario for my play this week as he is coming off a 9th place finish at the Safeway, where he gained strokes in all aspects of his game, including more than eight strokes gained tee-to-green. If he is in the form he showed two weeks ago, $7,000 on DK is WAY too low for him in this field.
Josh Teater ($6,800 DK/$8,600 FD)
Before I dive into Teater here and try to find some reason to play guys under $7,000 on DraftKings, let me note that he too is priced above Will Gordon on FanDuel. There are no guarantees in DFS Golf, but that price on Gordon is just off.
It gets pretty ugly down low in this event as you would expect, but the reality is that some of these guys are going to play well and find their way through the cut. Josh Teater is the one that stands out the most at 15th in my model as he is a pretty steady player in all tee-to-green categories.
He did miss the cut at the Safeway, but that can quickly be pointed to as he lost more than two and a half strokes putting. Teater has been really good with his irons gaining more than a stroke against the field in each of his past three events. If he can make a few more putts, his ball striking can get him through to the weekend with a top 25 type of upside.
Pictured above: Will Zalatoris
Photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
