As the New Year arrived, the Houston Rockets were given unfortunate news: Their MVP frontrunner, James Harden, was diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks. If you’re familiar with the ever-changing NBA lexicon, that phrase will stick out to you: Over the past year, teams have been telling the public that their injured player will be reevaluated in two weeks. It certainly doesn’t mean the player will return in two weeks, and it’s likely used to ease panic in the team’s fan base. Anyway, while the Rockets will make a public statement on Harden again in a couple weeks, I certainly would not expect him back then. It could be three weeks, or a month, or more — and that has a major impact on a race for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage out West.
Let’s dive into the many implications of Harden’s extended absence.
Harden’s Offensive Value
Quite simply, Harden has been the best offensive player in the league this season, evidenced by his +7.64 Offensive Real Plus-Minus. He’s the final product of Daryl Morey’s vision of maximizing efficiency by taking as many shots as possible at the rim or from behind the 3-point line. Harden has taken 34 percent of his shots at the hoop and 42 percent from behind the arc this season — both marks are in the 70th-plus percentile. He’s not a perfect offensive player, but if one existed it would have a similar shot frequency chart to this:
He’s also perhaps the best player in the world at drawing fouls: A whopping 16.8 percent of his shot attempts have resulted in a foul this season — good for the 95th percentile. Considering he’s first in the league with a 36.1 percent usage rate, those marks are absolutely ridiculous.
It’s difficult to overstate just how deep Harden’s roots run in Houston’s offense. Here’s their five most-used lineups this year, along with their point differential and offensive rating (points per 100 possession):
All five lineups rank in the 96th-plus percentile in offensive efficiency. When Harden is on the floor, the offense is historically good. And, man, is he on the floor a ton: You have to go down to the 15th-most used lineup this year — a combination of Paul-Gordon-Ariza-Tucker-Anderson — to find one without Harden. That lineup has played just 46 minutes together this season, and they’ve posted a point differential of -15.2. Woof.
Rockets’ On/Off Numbers With Harden
The on/off numbers with and without Harden are fascinating, and on the surface, they seem to contradict the stats above.
Are the Rockets better offensively without Harden? Certainly not. Those numbers are likely quite inflated by garbage time and bench units. It would be more useful to analyze how the Rockets have played with the starters in and Harden off; that’s likely the best proxy for starters vs. starters without Harden. Here’s how they’ve been:
They’ve scored at a rate of 110.8 points/100 possessions with Harden off and those four main guys on. That’s still excellent — it would be the third-best offense in the league — but it’s not historically good like with Harden.
One more interesting thing: In those minutes with Harden off and those four starters on, they’ve played 3-4 possessions/48 minutes faster. That could make it a wash in terms of raw points per game we should expect from the Rockets, but make sure to look at the totals for these games; there could be value in betting the over if the market over-adjusts.
Harden’s Style: The Chicken/Egg Debate
With some of the best NBA players, it’s difficult to determine whether a team plays a certain way because of them or if that star has been affected by the system. That is most felt in Houston, where it seems the team has blended into a perfect combination of how Morey wants to play, how Mike D’Antoni likes to coach, and how Harden is naturally as a player. But since they work in such perfect concert, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have a different sound without their star.
This season, the Rockets rank first in the league in free throw rate, sixth in the percentage of their shots at the rim, first in percentage of shots from the 3-point line, and first in percentage of shots from the corner 3. As mentioned above, Harden’s personal shot frequency chart and overall offensive profile is right in line with that. The question is this: Without The Beard, will that offensive identity remain?
There are positive signs. While Eric Gordon takes a lower percentage of his shots from the 3-point line (37 percent), he is quite adept at getting to the rim, where he’s taken 34 percent of his shots — the 78th percentile in the NBA. He’s a 40 percent 3-point shooter, which is important to Houston’s identity, but, perhaps most importantly, Gordon could work as a decent facsimile of Harden in terms of drawing fouls. Gordon has drawn a foul on 14.0 percent of his shot attempts this season, good for the 87th percentile among all players.
Chris Paul is right there as well, drawing fouls on 14.3 percent of his shot attempts this season (92nd percentile). He’s perhaps the biggest argument for the Rockets keeping their identity even without Harden: Last season, Paul posted a 38.0 3-point frequency percentage, which was easily the highest mark of his career. This season? He’s up at 49.0 percent, which is in the 89th percentile.
The Rockets’ pace-and-space culture is a thing, and it’s certainly possible they can keep this offense rolling without Harden. Think of it like high-speed internet: Will they be able to stream videos at the fastest possible rate? Probably not. Will they be able to watch Netflix just fine? You’re darn right, and I think I’ve lost this metaphor, but everyone likes Netflix, right?
The point is this: The Rockets’ ceiling is much lower without Harden than with him. However, the rest of their talent is still one of the top teams in the NBA, and they don’t have an especially tough January schedule:
If the Rockets can keep their identity with Gordon and Paul, they’ll be just fine over the next month.
Betting/DFS Implications
Without Harden on the floor, Gordon and Paul have been DFS monsters:
Both have seen usage rate increases of at least 7.0 percent, and Gordon has led the team with a 32.8 percent rate. CP3 has been absurdly efficient, posting 1.71 DraftKings points per minute during that time frame. He’s taken over lead ball-handling duties in a big way, averaging an assist rate of 60.2 percent without Harden. Buy both of these players early on in the month before their salaries skyrocket.
The Rockets currently sit at -400 to win the Southwest Division over the Spurs, who are at +250. The Spurs are only 1.5 games behind them and look to have Kawhi Leonard back fully healthy. If the Rockets take things slow with Harden and prioritize his health over gunning for the No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the second round, the Spurs could absolutely be the frontrunner for the division in a couple weeks. As current dogs, that’s a nice value.
Data from nbawowy, Cleaning the Glass, and FantasyLabs; photo via Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
