It never really made sense for my primary contribution in the daily fantasy space to be about chalk, cash game plays.
While I certainly would have argued for the usefulness of my “Automattek Absolutes” column, the cash game #Pickz article I wrote for the last four NFL seasons, it was definitely not ground-breaking or individualistic — outside of my continued touting of Eric Decker or the particularities of my English.
I assume if you are reading this article, you’re probably familiar with who I am. And if you’re not, then know that I’ve always prided myself on not being like everyone else.
Contrarian Football #Taeks
Within a year of joining the fantasy world, I found the friendly confines of Rotoviz and then launched a holy war the likes of which football Twitter had not seen (and probably won’t see again). Who was at the center of this stats vs. film war? Vincent Brown, who finished his NFL career with three touchdowns and only 133 targets … not that I still hold a grudge against all the fraudulent film watchers who “ooh’d” and “aah’d” over Brown’s route-running and intelligence.
That set the pattern of what would happen for the rest of my time in fantasy.
There are probably a lot of actual real-life reasons why I enjoy being a contrarian, but for our purposes, I think I can offer tangible value to FantasyLabs subscribers.
This year, I am doing things differently. I’m creating the content that I want to create, not the content that is prescribed to me. The content that I will be creating for FantasyLabs will focus on data-driven #Taeks that fall outside the spectrum of chalk. (Shameless plug to listen to the Taekcast podcast.)
Coaching Decisions Matter Most in NFL DFS
Now let’s talk a little bit about my methodology and how I’ll deliver #pickz this season.
The No. 1 mistake that people make in daily fantasy — and I include myself in this group at times — is thinking that bad players can’t be good for our purposes. Jeremy Langford is basically out of the league now, but thanks to overwhelming volume he had 182 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 10 of 2015.
Coaching (and usage) matters more than any other variable in all of daily fantasy football. That is not true for DFS basketball, hockey, soccer, baseball, badminton, whatever. So when a coach decides to use a player that the royal “we” all decide is bad, there is generally an edge when you realize that usage is more important than efficiency. Even before the 2018 season starts, I can tell you that there will be value in taking guys who do not have the raw production totals the average DFS player looks for, but who are on the field in the red zone, have a specifically weak defensive matchup or have seen an increase in volume without the commiserate increase in production.
That is not to say that talent evaluation isn’t part of the game. In fact, it is my favorite part of the game. I’m just like the rabble rousers on Twitter who like to rant about irrational coaching and beg for coaches to unleash their favorite practice squad gods. There is definitely an edge in identifying which of two wide receivers is more likely and more able to fill in for an injured receiver or having an opinion on the skill of a running back who is the next man up in any given backfield.
My background in prospect analysis at Rotoviz gives me what I think is a real edge here — in evaluating rookies, injury fill-ins and playing time shifts. Something I hope to do in this space is to work through those playing time battles as the season progresses and the injuries pile up to give FantasyLabs subscribers an edge over their competition.
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Using the FantasyLabs Tools to Find Fringe Plays
Finally, I’m going to exploit the hell out of the FantasyLabs Trends tool.
Football is a results game. We have no XwOBA for wide receivers, no BABIP for quarterbacks. Julio Jones scored three touchdowns last season, and while that is the lowest tally ever for a receiver with 1,400 or more yards, people still think he can’t score touchdowns.
The Trends tool allows us to see the forest instead of just a bunch of trees. Instead of looking only at game logs, box scores and snap counts, the Trends tool lets us overlap red-zone usage, snaps played, team performance, defensive matchup, air yards left on the field, etc., to help us find low-owned, low-cost options who make sense for our lineups.
Pro Trends that I expect to exploit are wide receivers who have gotten more than eight yards per target but whose salaries have dropped and running backs who are averaging more than three targets per game and whose teams are favored by four or more points. Using these (and other) Pro Trends on in the FantasyLabs Models, we will be able to root out some hidden plays with potential.
We’re on the fringe, my friends, and the truth is out there.
Check back every week, and we’ll get into the Bengals WR3’s college production, Brandon Zylstra’s combine workouts at North Dakota State, YouTube highlights of Eastern Kentucky products and the furthest reaches of professional football to find DFS plays that make a difference — and also make sense.
Photo Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
