Week 9 gives us a showcase of top offense squaring off in ideal matchups, with only two games above a 50-point total.
Check out a few games to target in Week 9, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools, specifically our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Two of the fastest teams in the league square off in a Week 9 matchup, opening at the second-highest total of 50-points.
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers head east to square off against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chargers are the second fastest team in the league, averaging a play every 23.8 seconds (per the RotoViz Pace and Snap Tool) and rank third in plays called, averaging 71 plays per game. The Chargers offense relies on Herbert to air the ball downfield, calling a pass-first 66%/34% play-calling scheme, highlighted by a receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook. Herbert, who has averaged 284 yards per game, should have no problem throwing the ball facing an Eagles defense ranked 16th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, also ranking 23rd according to PFF. As 2.5-point favorites, don’t expect Herbert to let off the gas too quickly and should keep the Chargers’ high-power offense moving throughout the game.
According to PFF, the Eagles grade out as the 10th best offense, are the third-fastest team in the league, averaging a snap every 24.4 seconds. The dynamic offense centers around Hurts and his dual-threat ability, using a slightly skewed pass preference of 58%/42% pass-to-run play calling. Hurts, who may be without Jalen Reagor this week, will likely lean on rookie DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert to carry the bulk of production through the air, facing a Chargers defense ranked 12th in DVOA. However, the newly-formed running back committee of Jordan Howard and Boston Scott may also see more production in the backfield, facing the worst rush defense in the league.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
In an interconference matchup with a 55.5-point total, the highest on the slate, the Green Bay Packers head to Arrowhead Stadium in a matchup two top offense and less-than-desirable defenses.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads a Packers offense ranked 11th according to PFF in a matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked 31st in DVOA, coming off a short week. Despite playing at the slowest pace in the league, averaging 29 seconds per snap, the Packers’ slightly skewed pass-first 58%/42% pass-to-run play-calling scheme has averaged 24 points per game this year. Even with question marks surrounding the availability of star wide receiver, Davante Adams, expect Rodgers to depend on the passing game as a 1-point underdog, averaging 236 yards per game through the air.
The high-powered Chiefs offense should again benefit from a weak matchup against a Packers defense ranked 22nd in DVOA. Look for quarterback Patrick Mahomes to lean into the Chiefs pass-first play-calling scheme, split 66%/34% pass-to-run, averaging 296 passing yards per game. As the fourth-fastest team in the league, calling a play every 24.5 seconds, expect the Chiefs to involve the entire offense to keep the foot on the pedal, especially targeting weapons Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Proceed with Caution
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
At 41 points, the Week 9 matchup against the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers is the lowest on the slate and should highlight a matchup between two of the top defenses in the league.
According to PFF, New England, led by quarterback Mac Jones, ranks fifth in offense, running a play at a near-league average of 26.5 seconds per snap. The offense prefers a pass-heavy approach, calling a 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, but faces a Panthers defense ranked as one of the top pass defenses in the league. Alongside the tough matchup for Jones, the Panthers rank 18th in pace and should also methodically move the ball down the field.
The Panthers may be without quarterback Sam Darnold because of a concussion and look to face a Patriots defense ranked 11th in DVOA. According to PFF, the Panthers rank 31 in offense, calling a 58%/42% pass-to-run play calling split and averaging 26.5 seconds per snap. If Darnold cannot play in Week 9, expect P.J. Walker to take over under center duties, facing a Patriots defense that is successful at defending the pass, ranking 10th in pass DVOA. In a game with a lot of uncertainty, this may be one to cross off the board.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns and Bengals square off in a classic AFC North matchup, with both offenses playing at the slowest in the league.
Cleveland’s offense, run through quarterback Baker Mayfield, is ranked seventh according to PFF but faces a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 13th in DVOA. The offense, which takes a balanced 50%/50% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, calls a play every 28.6 seconds—the fourth-slowest in the league. As 2.5-point underdogs, the Browns should depend on their receiving corps of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to keep the game competitive, especially facing a Bengals defense that looks to have difficulty defending to pass, ranking 17th in pass DVOA.
Like their in-state rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals take a systematic approach to moving the ball down the field, calling a play every 28.7 seconds, the third-slowest in the league. Using a slightly skewed pass approach, calling a 57%/43% pass-to-run ratio, quarterback Joe Burrow looks to face a Browns defense ranked 19th in DVOA. Cleveland ranks third in rushing DVOA, which might spell trouble for running back Joe Mixon, causing the Bengals to abandon the run game, even as slight favorites.
